10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.19 (banked floor $57.19) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,356/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $78/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 2d | 10 × $43.50 | 87% | $3,450 | $914 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 9d | 10 × $46.50 | 80% | $3,367 | $432 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 24.7% | 99+% | 1% | +0pp | $6 | $90 | -$3,360 | $5,505 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $50 24.7% OTM over spot $40.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $6 credit for the 2d cycle → $90/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $50.02) 99+% EV / mo +$78 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8/mo median; plan ~$5/mo after 68% keep · $11 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$727 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $50.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $50): -$5,505 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$1,270 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,327 (+$14,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,600, the opportunity cost of earning $90/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $44.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 10.9% | 92% | 16% | +5pp | $130 | $1,950 | -$1,500 | $14,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44.50 10.9% OTM over spot $40.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $130 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $44.70) 93% EV / mo +$1,024 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,188/mo median; plan ~$808/mo after 68% keep · $5,078 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$958 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $55 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.03–$2.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 249 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44.50 is $15 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $44.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44.50): -$14,555 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,107 (+$6,618 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,380, the opportunity cost of earning $1,950/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 7 × $44 | 24 Jul | 2d | 9.7% | 90% | 21% | +7pp | $140 | $2,100 | -$1,350 | $10,490 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $44 9.7% OTM over spot $40.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $140 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $44.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,162 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,231/mo median; plan ~$837/mo after 68% keep · $5,339 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$613 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $55 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life (likely $1.22–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 346 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $44.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $44): -$10,490 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$953 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,994 (+$9,731 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,267, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $43.50 | 24 Jul | 2d | 8.5% | 87% | 16% | +14pp | $230 | $3,450 | — | $15,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $43.50 8.5% OTM over spot $40.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $230 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $43.78) 89% EV / mo +$1,531 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,892/mo median; plan ~$1,287/mo after 68% keep · $9,529 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.2], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$833 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.50/sh now → $1.06 mid-life (likely $1.21–$2.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 477 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $16 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $43.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43.50): -$15,455 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,007 (+$5,718 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,280, the opportunity cost of earning $3,450/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $42 | 24 Jul | 2d | 4.7% | 75% | 52% | +19pp | $470 | $7,050 | +$3,600 | $16,715 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $42 4.7% OTM over spot $40.11 24 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.55 mid) = $470 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $42.55) 80% EV / mo +$1,824 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +19pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,973/mo median; plan ~$2,022/mo after 68% keep · $10,206 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$557 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.03 mid-life (likely $1.18–$2.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 958 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $43 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $42.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $42): -$16,715 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,267 (+$4,458 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,540, the opportunity cost of earning $7,050/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $60 | 31 Jul | 9d | 49.6% | 98% | 4% | +0pp | $30 | $100 | -$3,267 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $60 49.6% OTM over spot $40.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.13 mid) = $30 credit for the 9d cycle → $100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $60) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $60.13) 98% EV / mo +$64 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4/mo median; plan ~$3/mo after 68% keep · $5 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,064 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $62 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.15/sh now → $3.65 mid-life (likely $2.27–$4.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 70 simulated challenges: the $60 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $62 (overshoots $2.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $59.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $60): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $56): -$2,223 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,774 (+$18,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$953, the opportunity cost of earning $100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $52 | 31 Jul | 9d | 29.6% | 92% | 16% | +2pp | $290 | $967 | -$2,400 | $6,895 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $52 29.6% OTM over spot $40.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.52 mid) = $290 credit for the 9d cycle → $967/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.52) 93% EV / mo +$323 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $506/mo median; plan ~$344/mo after 68% keep · $1,894 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,869 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $55 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.46/sh now → $3.16 mid-life (likely $2.73–$4.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $1.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $52.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $52): -$6,895 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,447 (+$14,278 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,720, the opportunity cost of earning $967/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $48 | 31 Jul | 9d | 19.7% | 85% | 32% | +5pp | $666 | $2,220 | -$1,147 | $9,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $48 19.7% OTM over spot $40.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.97 mid) = $666 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $48.98) 87% EV / mo +$699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,065/mo median; plan ~$724/mo after 68% keep · $4,279 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,959 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $52 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $2.88–$4.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 713 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $48.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48): -$9,401 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,270 (+$11,455 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,543, the opportunity cost of earning $2,220/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $46.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 15.9% | 80% | 31% | +7pp | $1,010 | $3,367 | — | $11,675 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46.50 15.9% OTM over spot $40.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.23 mid) = $1,010 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,367/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $47.73) 84% EV / mo +$963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,514/mo median; plan ~$1,029/mo after 68% keep · $5,697 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,815 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $51 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 935 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $48 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $13 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $47.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46.50): -$11,675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,227 (+$9,498 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,500, the opportunity cost of earning $3,367/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $42.50 | 31 Jul | 9d | 6.0% | 65% | 74% | +10pp | $1,944 | $6,480 | +$3,113 | $13,073 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $42.50 6.0% OTM over spot $40.11 31 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.34 mid) = $1,944 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $44.84) 75% EV / mo +$1,377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,270/mo median; plan ~$1,544/mo after 68% keep · $7,634 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$380 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $53 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.65/sh now → $2.58 mid-life (likely $3.32–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,828 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $17 below CC-SS $59.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.16 collected) or spot ≥ $44.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,173 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $42.50): -$13,073 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,942 (+$7,783 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,727 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,215, the opportunity cost of earning $6,480/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.110 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,173 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,727
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 10/10 | $3,450 | $3,372 | 87% | 89% | +$1,531 | -$15,455 | 211.7% | $-15,007 (vs do-nothing $-12,280) |
| $43 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 8/10 | $3,480 | $3,406 | 83% | 86% | +$1,307 | -$12,716 | 174.2% | $-12,903 (vs do-nothing $-10,176) |
| $46.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 10/10 | $3,367 | $3,289 | 80% | 84% | +$963 | -$11,675 | 159.9% | $-11,227 (vs do-nothing $-8,500) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 6/10 | $3,330 | $3,260 | 79% | 83% | +$1,053 | -$9,789 | 134.1% | $-10,611 (vs do-nothing $-7,884) |
| $46 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.21 | 8/10 | $3,227 | $3,153 | 79% | 83% | +$1,071 | -$9,580 | 131.2% | $-9,767 (vs do-nothing $-7,040) |
| $45.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 8/10 | $3,280 | $3,206 | 77% | 82% | +$867 | -$9,964 | 136.5% | $-10,151 (vs do-nothing $-7,424) |
| $45 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 8/10 | $3,573 | $3,499 | 75% | 81% | +$878 | -$10,276 | 140.8% | $-10,463 (vs do-nothing $-7,736) |
| $42 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 5/10 | $3,525 | $3,457 | 75% | 80% | +$912 | -$8,358 | 114.5% | $-9,497 (vs do-nothing $-6,770) |
| $44.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 8/10 | $3,547 | $3,473 | 74% | 79% | +$542 | -$10,684 | 146.4% | $-10,871 (vs do-nothing $-8,144) |
| $45 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 10/10 | $3,188 | $3,110 | 73% | 79% | +$637 | -$12,485 | 171.0% | $-12,037 (vs do-nothing $-9,310) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 10/10 | $3,506 | $3,429 | 72% | 80% | +$720 | -$12,815 | 175.5% | $-12,367 (vs do-nothing $-9,640) |
| $44 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 6/10 | $3,180 | $3,110 | 72% | 78% | +$674 | -$8,157 | 111.7% | $-8,979 (vs do-nothing $-6,252) |
| $44 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.89 | 9/10 | $3,189 | $3,114 | 70% | 77% | +$453 | -$11,966 | 163.9% | $-11,835 (vs do-nothing $-9,108) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.69 | 6/10 | $3,380 | $3,310 | 70% | 77% | +$599 | -$8,397 | 115.0% | $-9,219 (vs do-nothing $-6,492) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 4/10 | $3,540 | $3,474 | 69% | 77% | +$706 | -$6,838 | 93.7% | $-8,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,568) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.01 | 9/10 | $3,392 | $3,316 | 68% | 76% | +$409 | -$12,308 | 168.6% | $-12,177 (vs do-nothing $-9,450) |
| $43 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 6/10 | $3,480 | $3,410 | 68% | 76% | +$400 | -$8,667 | 118.7% | $-9,489 (vs do-nothing $-6,762) |
| $43 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.35 | 8/10 | $3,525 | $3,451 | 66% | 75% | +$638 | -$11,068 | 151.6% | $-11,255 (vs do-nothing $-8,528) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 5/10 | $3,600 | $3,532 | 65% | 75% | +$765 | -$7,263 | 99.5% | $-8,402 (vs do-nothing $-5,675) |
| $43 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.77 | 9/10 | $3,252 | $3,176 | 65% | 74% | +$290 | -$12,074 | 165.4% | $-11,943 (vs do-nothing $-9,216) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.52 | 7/10 | $3,307 | $3,236 | 64% | 74% | +$561 | -$9,916 | 135.8% | $-10,420 (vs do-nothing $-7,693) |
| $41 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 3/10 | $3,375 | $3,311 | 63% | 73% | +$542 | -$5,231 | 71.7% | $-7,005 (vs do-nothing $-4,278) |
| $42 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.23 | 5/10 | $3,717 | $3,648 | 63% | 73% | +$593 | -$7,478 | 102.4% | $-8,617 (vs do-nothing $-5,890) |
| $42 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.58 | 7/10 | $3,386 | $3,314 | 62% | 73% | +$405 | -$10,224 | 140.0% | $-10,728 (vs do-nothing $-8,001) |
| $42 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 8/10 | $3,287 | $3,213 | 62% | 73% | +$282 | -$11,228 | 153.8% | $-11,415 (vs do-nothing $-8,688) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 5/10 | $3,800 | $3,732 | 61% | 72% | +$365 | -$7,703 | 105.5% | $-8,842 (vs do-nothing $-6,115) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.73 | 7/10 | $3,583 | $3,511 | 60% | 72% | +$350 | -$10,469 | 143.4% | $-10,973 (vs do-nothing $-8,246) |
| $41 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 8/10 | $3,600 | $3,526 | 59% | 71% | +$181 | -$11,788 | 161.5% | $-11,975 (vs do-nothing $-9,248) |
| $41 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 6/10 | $3,544 | $3,474 | 58% | 72% | +$544 | -$9,021 | 123.6% | $-9,843 (vs do-nothing $-7,116) |
| $41 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 4/10 | $3,467 | $3,400 | 58% | 71% | +$453 | -$6,234 | 85.4% | $-7,691 (vs do-nothing $-4,964) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 3/10 | $4,275 | $4,211 | 57% | 70% | +$565 | -$5,321 | 72.9% | $-7,095 (vs do-nothing $-4,368) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 6/10 | $3,544 | $3,474 | 56% | 70% | +$301 | -$9,321 | 127.7% | $-10,143 (vs do-nothing $-7,416) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 4/10 | $3,800 | $3,734 | 56% | 70% | +$502 | -$6,334 | 86.8% | $-7,791 (vs do-nothing $-5,064) |
| $40 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 7/10 | $3,652 | $3,580 | 55% | 69% | +$261 | -$10,630 | 145.6% | $-11,134 (vs do-nothing $-8,407) |
| $40 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 5/10 | $3,281 | $3,213 | 54% | 69% | +$365 | -$7,843 | 107.4% | $-8,982 (vs do-nothing $-6,255) |
| $40 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/10 | $4,000 | $3,934 | 53% | 69% | +$400 | -$6,474 | 88.7% | $-7,931 (vs do-nothing $-5,204) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 5/10 | $3,609 | $3,541 | 52% | 69% | +$467 | -$7,918 | 108.5% | $-9,057 (vs do-nothing $-6,330) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 3/10 | $3,200 | $3,136 | 51% | 68% | +$259 | -$4,946 | 67.7% | $-6,720 (vs do-nothing $-3,993) |
| $40 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 2/10 | $3,570 | $3,507 | 50% | 67% | +$391 | -$3,599 | 49.3% | $-5,691 (vs do-nothing $-2,964) |
| $39.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 2/10 | $4,410 | $4,347 | 43% | 64% | +$400 | -$3,643 | 49.9% | $-5,735 (vs do-nothing $-3,008) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.