FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $40.15

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.00 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $40.15 UNDERWATER $16.00 (28.5% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.00 (banked floor $57.01) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$6,800/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$74/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-20,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,400/mo

HEDGE COVER
$74/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,800/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
7.0 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $59.00 (probe: $60C 15d) brings only $400/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$18,346

was $20,510 · 11% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$59.00 → $57.01

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 38 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 17 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.14 (+62%) · daily UBB $49.55 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $47 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 83%, breach 17%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,400/mo); it brings $3,675/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $43/8d for $7,275/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $60/8d (98% survival, $75/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,023 (151% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-20,595 and cuts bleed by $74/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 10 × $47, 83% survival, $3,675/mo (E[net] $750/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 8d	10 × $47	83%	$3,675	$750

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $750/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $47 (primary), 83% survival, breach 17%, $3,675/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $49 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 17% → 12%) for $1,425/mo less (39% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $40.15 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $60

31 Jul

49.4%

98%

+0pp

$20

$75

-$3,600

Sell 2 × $60 49.4% OTM over spot $40.15 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid)

= $20 credit for the 8d cycle → $75/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $60)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $60.12)

98%

EV / mo

+$59

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$537/mo

median; plan ~$365/mo after 68% keep · $2,290 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$724

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$61 @ 68% POP

57% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.72 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$60	7 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.03/sh	-$7 cycle +$13	68% surv 53%	-$2,143 NOT cap gain +$18,367
Max even-money escape in the band	~$61	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.25/sh	+$49 cycle +$69	68% surv 57%	-$1,823 NOT cap gain +$18,687

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$75/mo
vs 50% target ($3,400/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($6,800/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$561/mo

Downside budget

✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $59.00: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($7,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-4,107

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $59.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $59-60.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $60.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$60.00 (2.9σ)	$20	$-2,137	+$18,373	+$950
+2.5%	$61.50 (3.1σ)	$-280	$-1,969	+$18,541	+$950
+5%	$63.00 (3.3σ)	$-580	$-1,801	+$18,709	+$950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,964

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $60): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $55): -$2,922

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,468 (+$18,042 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,198 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$731, the opportunity cost of earning $75/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $50

31 Jul

24.5%

90%

21%

+3pp

$550

$2,062

-$1,612

$8,453

Sell 10 × $50 24.5% OTM over spot $40.15 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.62 mid)

= $550 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,062/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $50.62)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,136

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,161/mo

median; plan ~$790/mo after 68% keep · $4,077 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,550

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$54 @ 76% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.38/sh now → $3.10 mid-life (likely $2.69–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 472 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $52 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.32/sh	+$317 cycle +$867 [-$78…+$859] · 71% credit	68% surv 53%	-$8,690 NOT cap gain +$11,820
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$519 cycle +$1,069 [-$131…+$1,092] · 69% credit	68% surv 58%	-$7,542 NOT cap gain +$12,968
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$241 cycle +$791 [-$154…+$771] · 64% credit	69% surv 55%	-$8,377 NOT cap gain +$12,133
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$108 cycle +$658 [-$612…+$656] · 45% credit	70% surv 61%	-$6,842 NOT cap gain +$13,668
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$54	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.48/sh	-$483 cycle +$67 [-$1,165…+$63] · 26% credit	76% surv 68%	-$5,209 NOT cap gain +$15,301
budget: banked $550 debit $483 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$67 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,360/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,062/mo
vs 50% target ($3,400/mo)	-39%
vs normal income ($6,800/mo)	30% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,989/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $59.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,453
… as % of IC ($7,300)	115.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	17.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,580

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $50.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (1.4σ)	$550	$-9,007	+$11,503	+$200
+2.5%	$51.25 (1.6σ)	$-700	$-8,867	+$11,643	-$1,050
+5%	$52.50 (1.8σ)	$-1,950	$-8,727	+$11,783	-$2,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-5,600	$-8,318	+$12,192	-$4,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,964

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,453

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,998 (+$12,512 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,198 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,800, the opportunity cost of earning $2,062/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $49

31 Jul

22.0%

88%

25%

+4pp

$600

$2,250

-$1,425

$9,403

Sell 10 × $49 22.0% OTM over spot $40.15 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.75 mid)

= $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $49.75)

90%

EV / mo

+$1,029

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,197/mo

median; plan ~$814/mo after 68% keep · $4,131 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,438

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 76% POP

68% survival

Buyback gross: $4.29/sh now → $3.04 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 528 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.34/sh	+$344 cycle +$944 [-$53…+$796] · 69% credit	68% surv 53%	-$9,724 NOT cap gain +$10,786
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.54/sh	+$539 cycle +$1,139 [-$132…+$918] · 67% credit	68% surv 58%	-$8,585 NOT cap gain +$11,925
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.01/sh	+$15 cycle +$615 [-$455…+$418] · 43% credit	70% surv 57%	-$9,109 NOT cap gain +$11,401
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$129 cycle +$729 [-$620…+$470] · 43% credit	70% surv 61%	-$7,883 NOT cap gain +$12,627
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.46/sh	-$456 cycle +$144 [-$1,166…-$118] · 21% credit	76% surv 68%	-$6,244 NOT cap gain +$14,266
budget: banked $600 debit $456 (76% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$144 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,303/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,250/mo
vs 50% target ($3,400/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($6,800/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,176/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $49 is $10 below CC-SS $59.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,403
… as % of IC ($7,300)	128.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,660

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $49.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.51	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.75	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.75	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.00 (1.3σ)	$600	$-10,069	+$10,441	+$250
+2.5%	$50.22 (1.4σ)	$-625	$-9,932	+$10,578	-$975
+5%	$51.45 (1.6σ)	$-1,850	$-9,794	+$10,716	-$2,200
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-6,550	$-9,268	+$11,242	-$5,750

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,964

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $49): -$9,403

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,948 (+$11,562 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,198 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,750, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $47

31 Jul

17.1%

83%

27%

+5pp

$980

$3,675

—

$11,023

Sell 10 × $47 17.1% OTM over spot $40.15 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.06 mid)

= $980 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,675/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $48.06)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,590

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,764/mo

median; plan ~$1,199/mo after 68% keep · $6,445 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,934

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$52 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.97–$4.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 803 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.40/sh	+$395 cycle +$1,375 [-$82…+$695] · 69% credit	68% surv 54%	-$11,518 NOT cap gain +$8,992
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.57/sh	+$573 cycle +$1,553 [-$213…+$790] · 67% credit	69% surv 58%	-$10,394 NOT cap gain +$10,116
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$65 cycle +$1,045 [-$475…+$287] · 42% credit	70% surv 58%	-$10,902 NOT cap gain +$9,608
Max even-money escape in the band	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.17/sh	+$167 cycle +$1,147 [-$675…+$336] · 41% credit	70% surv 61%	-$9,689 NOT cap gain +$10,821
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.80/sh	-$798 cycle +$182 [-$1,723…-$677] · 8% credit	78% surv 72%	-$7,317 NOT cap gain +$13,193
budget: banked $980 debit $798 (81% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$182 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,675/mo
vs 50% target ($3,400/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($6,800/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,601/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,023
… as % of IC ($7,300)	151.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,595

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $48.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-48.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$980	$-11,913	+$8,597	+$630
+2.5%	$48.17 (1.2σ)	$-195	$-11,781	+$8,729	-$545
+5%	$49.35 (1.3σ)	$-1,370	$-11,650	+$8,860	-$1,720
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-8,170	$-10,888	+$9,622	-$7,370

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,964

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$11,023

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,568 (+$9,942 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,198 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,370, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $43

31 Jul

7.1%

68%

69%

+7pp

$1,940

$7,275

+$3,600

$14,063

Sell 10 × $43 7.1% OTM over spot $40.15 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.12 mid)

= $1,940 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,275/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $43)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $45.12)

76%

EV / mo

+$1,859

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,708/mo

median; plan ~$1,842/mo after 68% keep · $8,120 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

55%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$726

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.33–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,636 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$43	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.48/sh	+$480 cycle +$2,420 [-$157…+$343] · 54% credit	68% surv 54%	-$14,921 NOT cap gain +$5,589
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$44	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.15/sh	+$149 cycle +$2,089 [-$554…-$39] · 23% credit	70% surv 58%	-$14,306 NOT cap gain +$6,204
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$27 cycle +$1,967 [-$1,092…-$306] · 15% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,205 NOT cap gain +$8,305
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.63/sh	-$1,628 cycle +$312 [-$3,124…-$2,102]	87% surv 85%	-$6,076 NOT cap gain +$14,434
budget: banked $1,940 debit $1,628 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$312 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,730/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,275/mo
vs 50% target ($3,400/mo)	+114%
vs normal income ($6,800/mo)	107% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,201/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $59.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,063
… as % of IC ($7,300)	192.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	29.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,690

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $45.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.55 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $42.57	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $43-45.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$43.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,940	$-15,401	+$5,109	+$1,590
+2.5%	$44.07 (≤1σ, normal week)	$865	$-15,280	+$5,230	+$515
+5%	$45.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-210	$-15,160	+$5,350	-$560
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-11,210	$-13,928	+$6,582	-$10,410

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,964

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43): -$14,063

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,608 (+$6,902 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,198 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,410, the opportunity cost of earning $7,275/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (33 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,964 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,198

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	8d	31 Jul 2026	$0.98	10/10	$3,675	$3,601	83%	86%	+$1,590	-$11,023	151.0%	$-10,568 (vs do-nothing $-7,370)
$46.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.01	9/10	$3,409	$3,405	81%	85%	+$1,274	-$10,343	141.7%	$-10,254 (vs do-nothing $-7,056)
$46	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.01	9/10	$3,409	$3,405	80%	84%	+$987	-$10,793	147.9%	$-10,704 (vs do-nothing $-7,506)
$45.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.23	8/10	$3,690	$3,756	78%	83%	+$1,253	-$9,818	134.5%	$-10,094 (vs do-nothing $-6,896)
$45	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.36	7/10	$3,570	$3,706	76%	82%	+$1,164	-$8,850	121.2%	$-9,491 (vs do-nothing $-6,293)
$44.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.51	7/10	$3,964	$4,100	74%	80%	+$1,256	-$9,095	124.6%	$-9,736 (vs do-nothing $-6,538)
$45	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.86	10/10	$3,720	$3,646	74%	80%	+$1,114	-$12,143	166.3%	$-11,688 (vs do-nothing $-8,490)
$44	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.67	6/10	$3,757	$3,964	72%	79%	+$1,153	-$8,000	109.6%	$-9,006 (vs do-nothing $-5,808)
$44.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.96	9/10	$3,528	$3,524	72%	79%	+$956	-$11,288	154.6%	$-11,199 (vs do-nothing $-8,001)
$44	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.03	9/10	$3,654	$3,650	70%	78%	+$837	-$11,675	159.9%	$-11,586 (vs do-nothing $-8,388)
$43.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.79	6/10	$4,028	$4,234	70%	78%	+$1,114	-$8,228	112.7%	$-9,234 (vs do-nothing $-6,036)
$44	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.58	10/10	$3,518	$3,444	69%	77%	+$876	-$12,423	170.2%	$-11,968 (vs do-nothing $-8,770)
$43.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.32	8/10	$3,712	$3,778	68%	77%	+$973	-$10,546	144.5%	$-10,822 (vs do-nothing $-7,624)

Show 20 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.94	5/10	$3,638	$3,914	68%	76%	+$930	-$7,031	96.3%	$-8,403 (vs do-nothing $-5,205)
$43	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.41	8/10	$3,856	$3,922	66%	76%	+$866	-$10,874	149.0%	$-11,150 (vs do-nothing $-7,952)
$42.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.10	5/10	$3,938	$4,214	65%	75%	+$927	-$7,201	98.6%	$-8,573 (vs do-nothing $-5,375)
$43	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.91	9/10	$3,571	$3,568	65%	74%	+$164	-$11,783	161.4%	$-11,694 (vs do-nothing $-8,496)
$42.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	7/10	$3,556	$3,692	64%	75%	+$704	-$9,774	133.9%	$-10,415 (vs do-nothing $-7,217)
$42	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.32	4/10	$3,480	$3,826	63%	74%	+$810	-$5,873	80.5%	$-7,610 (vs do-nothing $-4,412)
$42	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.84	6/10	$3,408	$3,614	62%	73%	+$747	-$8,498	116.4%	$-9,504 (vs do-nothing $-6,306)
$42	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	9/10	$3,805	$3,801	62%	72%	$-47	-$12,512	171.4%	$-12,423 (vs do-nothing $-9,225)
$41.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.50	4/10	$3,750	$4,096	61%	73%	+$799	-$6,001	82.2%	$-7,738 (vs do-nothing $-4,540)
$41.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.89	6/10	$3,468	$3,674	60%	73%	+$577	-$8,768	120.1%	$-9,774 (vs do-nothing $-6,576)
$41	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	8/10	$3,818	$3,884	59%	70%	$-40	-$11,602	158.9%	$-11,878 (vs do-nothing $-8,680)
$41	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.69	4/10	$4,035	$4,381	58%	72%	+$784	-$6,125	83.9%	$-7,862 (vs do-nothing $-4,664)
$41	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	6/10	$3,840	$4,046	58%	72%	+$705	-$8,882	121.7%	$-9,888 (vs do-nothing $-6,690)
$40.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.45	5/10	$3,450	$3,726	56%	71%	+$621	-$7,526	103.1%	$-8,898 (vs do-nothing $-5,700)
$40.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.96	4/10	$4,440	$4,786	56%	71%	+$867	-$6,217	85.2%	$-7,954 (vs do-nothing $-4,756)
$40	22d	14 Aug 2026	$4.15	7/10	$3,961	$4,098	55%	69%	+$168	-$10,397	142.4%	$-11,038 (vs do-nothing $-7,840)
$40	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.55	5/10	$3,550	$3,826	54%	70%	+$492	-$7,726	105.8%	$-9,098 (vs do-nothing $-5,900)
$40	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	3/10	$3,544	$3,960	53%	69%	+$608	-$4,756	65.1%	$-6,858 (vs do-nothing $-3,660)
$39.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.90	5/10	$3,900	$4,176	51%	69%	+$601	-$7,801	106.9%	$-9,173 (vs do-nothing $-5,975)
$39.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.45	3/10	$3,881	$4,298	50%	69%	+$673	-$4,816	66.0%	$-6,918 (vs do-nothing $-3,720)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:47