FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $40.07

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.93 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $40.07 UNDERWATER $16.08 (28.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.93 (banked floor $56.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$6,955/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$74/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-20,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,478/mo

HEDGE COVER
$74/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,955/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
6.8 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $58.93 (probe: $58C 15d) brings only $400/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$18,346

was $20,510 · 11% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$58.93 → $56.94

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 38 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 17 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.14 (+63%) · daily UBB $49.56 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $47 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 83%, breach 17%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,478/mo); it brings $3,675/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $43/8d for $7,275/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $60/8d (98% survival, $75/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,953 (150% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-20,595 and cuts bleed by $74/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 10 × $47, 83% survival, $3,675/mo (E[net] $813/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 8d	10 × $47	83%	$3,675	$813

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $813/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $47 (primary), 83% survival, breach 17%, $3,675/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $48.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 17% → 13%) for $1,346/mo less (37% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $40.07 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $60

31 Jul

49.7%

98%

-0pp

$20

$75

-$3,600

Sell 2 × $60 49.7% OTM over spot $40.07 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid)

= $20 credit for the 8d cycle → $75/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $60)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $60.12)

98%

EV / mo

+$59

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$537/mo

median; plan ~$365/mo after 68% keep · $2,241 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$724

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$60 @ 69% POP

55% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.72 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$60	7 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.01/sh	-$2 cycle +$18	68% surv 53%	-$2,073 NOT cap gain +$18,437
Max even-money escape in the band	~$61	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.25/sh	+$50 cycle +$70	68% surv 57%	-$1,732 NOT cap gain +$18,778
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$60	7 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.10/sh	-$19 cycle +$1	69% surv 55%	-$1,957 NOT cap gain +$18,553
budget: banked $20 debit $19 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $1,976/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$75/mo
vs 50% target ($3,478/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($6,955/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$561/mo

Downside budget

✓ $60 is at/above CC-SS $58.93: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($7,300)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-4,107

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $60.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $60)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $59.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $59-60.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $60.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$60.00 (2.9σ)	$20	$-2,071	+$18,439	+$950
+2.5%	$61.50 (3.1σ)	$-280	$-1,904	+$18,606	+$950
+5%	$63.00 (3.3σ)	$-580	$-1,738	+$18,772	+$950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,955

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $60): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $55): -$2,867

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,422 (+$18,088 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,139 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$717, the opportunity cost of earning $75/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $50

31 Jul

24.8%

90%

20%

+3pp

$550

$2,062

-$1,612

$8,383

Sell 10 × $50 24.8% OTM over spot $40.07 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.62 mid)

= $550 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,062/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $50.62)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,132

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,152/mo

median; plan ~$783/mo after 68% keep · $4,092 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,549

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$54 @ 75% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.38/sh now → $3.10 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 468 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $52 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.34/sh	+$337 cycle +$887 [-$21…+$893] · 75% credit	68% surv 53%	-$8,593 NOT cap gain +$11,917
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.52/sh	+$524 cycle +$1,074 [-$81…+$1,118] · 71% credit	69% surv 58%	-$7,376 NOT cap gain +$13,134
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$245 cycle +$795 [-$113…+$784] · 68% credit	69% surv 55%	-$8,211 NOT cap gain +$12,299
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$113 cycle +$663 [-$555…+$681] · 48% credit	70% surv 61%	-$6,676 NOT cap gain +$13,834
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$54	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.46/sh	-$462 cycle +$88 [-$1,146…+$84] · 27% credit	75% surv 68%	-$5,029 NOT cap gain +$15,481
budget: banked $550 debit $462 (84% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,396/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,062/mo
vs 50% target ($3,478/mo)	-41%
vs normal income ($6,955/mo)	30% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,989/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,383
… as % of IC ($7,300)	114.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	17.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,580

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $50.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.50	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-50.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $50.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$50.00 (1.4σ)	$550	$-8,931	+$11,579	+$200
+2.5%	$51.25 (1.6σ)	$-700	$-8,792	+$11,718	-$1,050
+5%	$52.50 (1.8σ)	$-1,950	$-8,653	+$11,857	-$2,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-5,600	$-8,248	+$12,262	-$4,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,955

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $50): -$8,383

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,939 (+$12,571 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,139 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,800, the opportunity cost of earning $2,062/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

9 × $48.50

31 Jul

21.0%

87%

27%

+2pp

$621

$2,329

-$1,346

$8,769

Sell 9 × $48.50 21.0% OTM over spot $40.07 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.94 mid)

= $621 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,329/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48.50)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $49.45)

89%

EV / mo

+$1,073

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,344/mo

median; plan ~$914/mo after 68% keep · $4,533 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,085

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$52 @ 76% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.25/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $2.77–$4.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 560 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $50 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.38/sh	+$340 cycle +$961 [-$19…+$749] · 73% credit	68% surv 53%	-$10,151 NOT cap gain +$10,359
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.55/sh	+$497 cycle +$1,118 [-$75…+$857] · 70% credit	69% surv 58%	-$8,963 NOT cap gain +$11,547
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.14/sh	+$129 cycle +$750 [-$508…+$430] · 45% credit	70% surv 61%	-$8,220 NOT cap gain +$12,290
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.03/sh	+$28 cycle +$649 [-$376…+$374] · 44% credit	70% surv 58%	-$9,433 NOT cap gain +$11,077
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.42/sh	-$382 cycle +$239 [-$1,022…-$99] · 22% credit	76% surv 68%	-$6,509 NOT cap gain +$14,001
budget: banked $621 debit $382 (61% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$239 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,874/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,329/mo
vs 50% target ($3,478/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($6,955/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,325/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48.50 is $10 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,769
… as % of IC ($7,300)	120.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	18.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-18,688

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $49.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-49.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.50 (1.2σ)	$621	$-10,491	+$10,019	+$306
+2.5%	$49.71 (1.4σ)	$-470	$-10,235	+$10,275	-$785
+5%	$50.93 (1.6σ)	$-1,562	$-9,979	+$10,531	-$1,877
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-6,264	$-8,992	+$11,518	-$5,544

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,955

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $48.50): -$8,769

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$358

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,683 (+$11,827 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,139 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,544, the opportunity cost of earning $2,329/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $47

31 Jul

17.3%

83%

26%

+6pp

$980

$3,675

—

$10,953

Sell 10 × $47 17.3% OTM over spot $40.07 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.06 mid)

= $980 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,675/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $48.06)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,606

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,769/mo

median; plan ~$1,203/mo after 68% keep · $6,399 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,933

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 786 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.41/sh	+$415 cycle +$1,395 [-$52…+$774] · 70% credit	68% surv 54%	-$11,419 NOT cap gain +$9,091
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.58/sh	+$577 cycle +$1,557 [-$179…+$838] · 67% credit	69% surv 58%	-$10,226 NOT cap gain +$10,284
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$68 cycle +$1,048 [-$464…+$345] · 43% credit	71% surv 58%	-$10,735 NOT cap gain +$9,775
Max even-money escape in the band	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.17/sh	+$171 cycle +$1,151 [-$657…+$400] · 42% credit	70% surv 61%	-$9,521 NOT cap gain +$10,989
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.98/sh	-$977 cycle +$3 [-$1,982…-$835] · 7% credit	79% surv 74%	-$6,225 NOT cap gain +$14,285
budget: banked $980 debit $977 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,227/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,675/mo
vs 50% target ($3,478/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($6,955/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,601/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,953
… as % of IC ($7,300)	150.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,595

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $48.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-48.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$980	$-11,834	+$8,676	+$630
+2.5%	$48.17 (1.2σ)	$-195	$-11,703	+$8,807	-$545
+5%	$49.35 (1.3σ)	$-1,370	$-11,573	+$8,937	-$1,720
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-8,170	$-10,818	+$9,692	-$7,370

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,955

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$10,953

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,509 (+$10,001 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,139 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,370, the opportunity cost of earning $3,675/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $43

31 Jul

7.3%

68%

68%

+8pp

$1,940

$7,275

+$3,600

$13,993

Sell 10 × $43 7.3% OTM over spot $40.07 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.12 mid)

= $1,940 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,275/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $43)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $45.12)

77%

EV / mo

+$1,948

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

69% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,765/mo

median; plan ~$1,880/mo after 68% keep · $8,226 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

54%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$725

Free roll-up

+$1/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$55 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.32–$4.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,618 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$43	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.50/sh	+$498 cycle +$2,438 [-$128…+$365] · 59% credit	68% surv 54%	-$14,819 NOT cap gain +$5,691
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$44	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.15/sh	+$150 cycle +$2,090 [-$544…-$32] · 23% credit	71% surv 58%	-$14,137 NOT cap gain +$6,373
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$30 cycle +$1,970 [-$1,086…-$300] · 15% credit	73% surv 65%	-$12,035 NOT cap gain +$8,475
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$55	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.93/sh	-$1,933 cycle +$7 [-$3,575…-$2,440]	90% surv 89%	-$3,999 NOT cap gain +$16,511
budget: banked $1,940 debit $1,933 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$7 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,220/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,275/mo
vs 50% target ($3,478/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($6,955/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,201/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,993
… as % of IC ($7,300)	191.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	29.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-20,690

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.94 collected) or spot ≥ $45.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $42.57	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $43-45.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$43.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,940	$-15,318	+$5,192	+$1,590
+2.5%	$44.07 (≤1σ, normal week)	$865	$-15,198	+$5,312	+$515
+5%	$45.15 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-210	$-15,079	+$5,431	-$560
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.3σ)	$-11,210	$-13,858	+$6,652	-$10,410

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,510

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,955

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43): -$13,993

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,549 (+$6,961 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,139 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,410, the opportunity cost of earning $7,275/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (33 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.111 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,955 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,139

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	8d	31 Jul 2026	$0.98	10/10	$3,675	$3,601	83%	86%	+$1,606	-$10,953	150.0%	$-10,509 (vs do-nothing $-7,370)
$46.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.01	10/10	$3,788	$3,714	81%	85%	+$1,437	-$11,423	156.5%	$-10,979 (vs do-nothing $-7,840)
$46	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.01	10/10	$3,788	$3,714	80%	84%	+$1,124	-$11,923	163.3%	$-11,479 (vs do-nothing $-8,340)
$45.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.23	8/10	$3,690	$3,756	78%	83%	+$1,282	-$9,763	133.7%	$-10,035 (vs do-nothing $-6,896)
$45	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.36	7/10	$3,570	$3,706	76%	82%	+$1,195	-$8,801	120.6%	$-9,432 (vs do-nothing $-6,293)
$44.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.51	7/10	$3,964	$4,100	74%	80%	+$1,294	-$9,046	123.9%	$-9,677 (vs do-nothing $-6,538)
$45	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.86	10/10	$3,720	$3,646	73%	79%	+$709	-$12,073	165.4%	$-11,629 (vs do-nothing $-8,490)
$44	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.67	6/10	$3,757	$3,964	72%	79%	+$1,192	-$7,958	109.0%	$-8,947 (vs do-nothing $-5,808)
$44.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.96	9/10	$3,528	$3,524	71%	78%	+$585	-$11,226	153.8%	$-11,140 (vs do-nothing $-8,001)
$43.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.79	6/10	$4,028	$4,234	70%	78%	+$1,160	-$8,186	112.1%	$-9,175 (vs do-nothing $-6,036)
$44	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.03	9/10	$3,654	$3,650	70%	77%	+$462	-$11,613	159.1%	$-11,527 (vs do-nothing $-8,388)
$44	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.58	10/10	$3,518	$3,444	69%	77%	+$716	-$12,353	169.2%	$-11,909 (vs do-nothing $-8,770)
$43	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.94	5/10	$3,638	$3,914	68%	77%	+$974	-$6,997	95.8%	$-8,344 (vs do-nothing $-5,205)

Show 20 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.32	8/10	$3,712	$3,778	68%	76%	+$638	-$10,491	143.7%	$-10,763 (vs do-nothing $-7,624)
$43	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.41	8/10	$3,856	$3,922	67%	76%	+$887	-$10,819	148.2%	$-11,091 (vs do-nothing $-7,952)
$42.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.10	5/10	$3,938	$4,214	66%	76%	+$978	-$7,167	98.2%	$-8,514 (vs do-nothing $-5,375)
$43	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.91	9/10	$3,571	$3,568	65%	74%	+$200	-$11,721	160.6%	$-11,635 (vs do-nothing $-8,496)
$42.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	7/10	$3,556	$3,692	65%	75%	+$725	-$9,725	133.2%	$-10,356 (vs do-nothing $-7,217)
$42	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.32	4/10	$3,480	$3,826	63%	75%	+$856	-$5,845	80.1%	$-7,551 (vs do-nothing $-4,412)
$42	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.84	7/10	$3,976	$4,112	63%	74%	+$896	-$9,865	135.1%	$-10,496 (vs do-nothing $-7,357)
$42	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	9/10	$3,805	$3,801	62%	72%	$-7	-$12,450	170.5%	$-12,364 (vs do-nothing $-9,225)
$41.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.50	4/10	$3,750	$4,096	61%	73%	+$851	-$5,973	81.8%	$-7,679 (vs do-nothing $-4,540)
$41.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.89	7/10	$4,046	$4,182	61%	73%	+$702	-$10,180	139.5%	$-10,811 (vs do-nothing $-7,672)
$41	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.50	8/10	$3,818	$3,884	59%	70%	$-1	-$11,547	158.2%	$-11,819 (vs do-nothing $-8,680)
$41	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.69	4/10	$4,035	$4,381	59%	72%	+$841	-$6,097	83.5%	$-7,803 (vs do-nothing $-4,664)
$41	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	6/10	$3,840	$4,046	58%	72%	+$732	-$8,840	121.1%	$-9,829 (vs do-nothing $-6,690)
$40.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.45	6/10	$4,140	$4,346	56%	71%	+$777	-$8,990	123.2%	$-9,979 (vs do-nothing $-6,840)
$40.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.84	4/10	$4,260	$4,606	56%	71%	+$751	-$6,237	85.4%	$-7,943 (vs do-nothing $-4,804)
$40	22d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	7/10	$3,914	$4,050	55%	69%	+$157	-$10,383	142.2%	$-11,014 (vs do-nothing $-7,875)
$40	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.55	5/10	$3,550	$3,826	54%	70%	+$522	-$7,692	105.4%	$-9,039 (vs do-nothing $-5,900)
$40	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.10	3/10	$3,488	$3,904	53%	70%	+$603	-$4,750	65.1%	$-6,814 (vs do-nothing $-3,675)
$39.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.85	5/10	$3,850	$4,126	52%	69%	+$584	-$7,792	106.7%	$-9,139 (vs do-nothing $-6,000)
$39.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.30	3/10	$3,712	$4,129	51%	69%	+$560	-$4,840	66.3%	$-6,904 (vs do-nothing $-3,765)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:53