FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $39.30

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.26 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $39.30 UNDERWATER $16.85 (30.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.26 (banked floor $57.27) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$6,200/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$142/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-21,670	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,100/mo

HEDGE COVER
$142/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.2 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
7.6 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $59.26 (probe: $60C 15d) brings only $40/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$19,506

was $21,670 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$59.26 → $57.27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 37 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 31 · %B 16 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.14 (+66%) · daily UBB $49.40 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 9 contracts at $46 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 83%, breach 17%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,100/mo); it brings $3,308/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $42/8d for $6,262/mo, but breach risk rises to 33% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 8 × $54/8d (96% survival, $150/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $11,053 (151% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 9 contracts realizes $-19,606 and cuts bleed by $128/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · sell 9 × $46, 83% survival, $3,308/mo (E[net] $678/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 8d	9 × $46	83%	$3,308	$678

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 8d · E[net] $678/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $46 (primary), 83% survival, breach 17%, $3,308/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $47 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 17% → 15%) for $1,058/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $39.30 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

8 × $54

31 Jul

37.4%

96%

-1pp

$40

$150

-$3,158

$4,168

Sell 8 × $54 37.4% OTM over spot $39.30 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid)

= $40 credit for the 8d cycle → $150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $54)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $54.22)

96%

EV / mo

$-66

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

57% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$15/mo

median; plan ~$10/mo after 68% keep · $24 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,651

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$55 @ 69% POP

56% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.75/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 161 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $56 (overshoots $2.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.20/sh	+$157 cycle +$197 [-$90…+$1,016] · 72% credit	69% surv 56%	-$4,382 NOT cap gain +$17,288
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	7 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.15/sh	-$121 cycle -$81 [-$342…+$653] · 60% credit	67% surv 53%	-$5,437 NOT cap gain +$16,233

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$150/mo
vs 50% target ($3,100/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($6,200/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$56/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $54 is $5 below CC-SS $59.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,168
… as % of IC ($7,300)	57.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	8.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,468

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $54.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $53-54.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $54.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$54.00 (2.3σ)	$40	$-5,316	+$16,354	-$56
+2.5%	$55.35 (2.5σ)	$-1,040	$-4,901	+$16,769	-$1,136
+5%	$56.70 (2.7σ)	$-2,120	$-4,625	+$17,045	-$1,656

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,670

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,118

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $54): -$4,168

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$628

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,348 (+$17,322 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,656, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $49.50

31 Jul

26.0%

91%

19%

+2pp

$300

$1,125

-$2,182

$9,461

Sell 10 × $49.50 26.0% OTM over spot $39.30 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.49 mid)

= $300 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $49.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $49.99)

92%

EV / mo

+$256

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$503/mo

median; plan ~$342/mo after 68% keep · $2,034 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,783

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$51 @ 71% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.08 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 416 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.34/sh	+$344 cycle +$644 [-$41…+$1,016] · 73% credit	69% surv 57%	-$8,944 NOT cap gain +$12,726
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.00/sh	+$4 cycle +$304 [-$341…+$597] · 53% credit	67% surv 53%	-$10,062 NOT cap gain +$11,608
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.07/sh	-$65 cycle +$235 [-$536…+$550] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%	-$8,246 NOT cap gain +$13,424
budget: banked $300 debit $65 (22% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$235 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,030/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,125/mo
vs 50% target ($3,100/mo)	-64%
vs normal income ($6,200/mo)	18% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$983/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $49.50 is $10 below CC-SS $59.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,461
… as % of IC ($7,300)	129.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-21,860

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $49.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.99	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.99	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.50 (1.6σ)	$300	$-10,066	+$11,604	+$180
+2.5%	$50.74 (1.8σ)	$-937	$-9,933	+$11,737	-$1,057
+5%	$51.98 (2.0σ)	$-2,175	$-9,799	+$11,871	-$2,295
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-6,350	$-9,348	+$12,322	-$6,320

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,670

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,118

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $49.50): -$9,461

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,012 (+$12,658 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,320, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $47

31 Jul

19.6%

85%

31%

+4pp

$600

$2,250

-$1,058

$11,661

Sell 10 × $47 19.6% OTM over spot $39.30 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.88 mid)

= $600 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $47.88)

87%

EV / mo

+$586

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$987/mo

median; plan ~$671/mo after 68% keep · $4,297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,327

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 73% POP

65% survival

Buyback gross: $4.14/sh now → $2.93 mid-life (likely $2.72–$4.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 681 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.41/sh	+$412 cycle +$1,012 [-$157…+$924] · 64% credit	69% surv 57%	-$11,347 NOT cap gain +$10,323
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.08/sh	+$79 cycle +$679 [-$425…+$531] · 49% credit	67% surv 54%	-$12,457 NOT cap gain +$9,213
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$16 cycle +$616 [-$493…+$454] · 45% credit	68% surv 54%	-$12,297 NOT cap gain +$9,373
Max even-money escape in the band	~$49	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.01/sh	+$5 cycle +$605 [-$631…+$471] · 42% credit	71% surv 61%	-$10,646 NOT cap gain +$11,024
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.35/sh	-$351 cycle +$249 [-$1,066…+$54] · 27% credit	73% surv 65%	-$9,894 NOT cap gain +$11,776
budget: banked $600 debit $351 (59% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$249 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,293/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,250/mo
vs 50% target ($3,100/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($6,200/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,108/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,661
… as % of IC ($7,300)	159.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-21,950

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $47.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (1.2σ)	$600	$-12,536	+$9,134	+$480
+2.5%	$48.17 (1.4σ)	$-575	$-12,410	+$9,260	-$695
+5%	$49.35 (1.6σ)	$-1,750	$-12,283	+$9,387	-$1,870
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-8,550	$-11,548	+$10,122	-$8,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,670

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,118

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$11,661

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,212 (+$10,458 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,520, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

9 × $46

31 Jul

17.1%

83%

27%

+7pp

$882

$3,308

—

$11,053

Sell 9 × $46 17.1% OTM over spot $39.30 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.09 mid)

= $882 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,308/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $47.09)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,381

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,534/mo

median; plan ~$1,043/mo after 68% keep · $5,369 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.9], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

27%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,696

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$51 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.05/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 816 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.11/sh	+$97 cycle +$979 [-$424…+$362] · 41% credit	67% surv 54%	-$13,254 NOT cap gain +$8,416
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.04/sh	+$39 cycle +$921 [-$490…+$292] · 38% credit	68% surv 55%	-$13,087 NOT cap gain +$8,583
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$27 cycle +$909 [-$640…+$277] · 35% credit	71% surv 61%	-$11,437 NOT cap gain +$10,233
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.83/sh	-$751 cycle +$131 [-$1,576…-$600] · 10% credit	78% surv 72%	-$8,892 NOT cap gain +$12,778
budget: banked $882 debit $751 (85% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$131 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,045/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,308/mo
vs 50% target ($3,100/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($6,200/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,189/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $59.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,053
… as % of IC ($7,300)	151.4%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-19,606

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $47.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-47.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.1σ)	$882	$-13,350	+$8,320	+$774
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.2σ)	$-153	$-13,111	+$8,559	-$261
+5%	$48.30 (1.4σ)	$-1,188	$-12,872	+$8,798	-$1,296
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-8,253	$-11,254	+$10,416	-$8,226

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,670

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,118

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $46): -$11,053

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$314

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,918 (+$10,752 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,226, the opportunity cost of earning $3,308/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $42

31 Jul

6.9%

67%

70%

+7pp

$1,670

$6,262

+$2,955

$15,591

Sell 10 × $42 6.9% OTM over spot $39.30 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.00 mid)

= $1,670 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,262/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $42)

67%

Breach risk

33%

POP (stays ≤ $44.00)

76%

EV / mo

+$832

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

65% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,107/mo

median; plan ~$1,433/mo after 68% keep · $7,449 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

53%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$946

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026)

$51 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $3.70/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $3.33–$4.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,592 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $44 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$42	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$206 cycle +$1,876 [-$560…-$10] · 24% credit	67% surv 54%	-$16,801 NOT cap gain +$4,869
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$42	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.14/sh	+$141 cycle +$1,811 [-$633…-$80] · 21% credit	68% surv 55%	-$16,641 NOT cap gain +$5,029
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.12/sh	+$115 cycle +$1,785 [-$851…-$175] · 18% credit	72% surv 61%	-$15,006 NOT cap gain +$6,664
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$51	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.59/sh	-$1,590 cycle +$80 [-$3,109…-$2,100]	85% surv 83%	-$8,955 NOT cap gain +$12,715
budget: banked $1,670 debit $1,590 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,710/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,262/mo
vs 50% target ($3,100/mo)	+102%
vs normal income ($6,200/mo)	101% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,120/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $59.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,591
… as % of IC ($7,300)	213.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	33.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,000

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $44.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.40 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $41.58	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $42-44.00	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.00	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$42.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,670	$-17,006	+$4,664	+$1,550
+2.5%	$43.05 (≤1σ, normal week)	$620	$-16,893	+$4,777	+$500
+5%	$44.10 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-430	$-16,780	+$4,890	-$550
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-12,480	$-15,478	+$6,192	-$12,450

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.26, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,670

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,118

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $42): -$15,591

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,142 (+$6,528 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,692 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,450, the opportunity cost of earning $6,262/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.108 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,118 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,692

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$46	8d	31 Jul 2026	$0.98	9/10	$3,308	$3,189	83%	86%	+$1,381	-$11,053	151.4%	$-10,918 (vs do-nothing $-8,226)
$45.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$0.83	10/10	$3,112	$2,970	81%	84%	+$691	-$12,931	177.1%	$-12,482 (vs do-nothing $-9,790)
$45	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.06	8/10	$3,180	$3,086	79%	83%	+$992	-$10,560	144.7%	$-10,740 (vs do-nothing $-8,048)
$44.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.02	9/10	$3,442	$3,324	78%	82%	+$668	-$12,367	169.4%	$-12,232 (vs do-nothing $-9,540)
$44	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.14	8/10	$3,420	$3,326	76%	81%	+$645	-$11,296	154.7%	$-11,476 (vs do-nothing $-8,784)
$43.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.26	7/10	$3,307	$3,237	74%	79%	+$582	-$10,150	139.0%	$-10,644 (vs do-nothing $-7,952)
$43	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.40	6/10	$3,150	$3,104	72%	78%	+$534	-$8,916	122.1%	$-9,724 (vs do-nothing $-7,032)
$43.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.60	10/10	$3,200	$3,058	72%	78%	+$361	-$14,161	194.0%	$-13,712 (vs do-nothing $-11,020)
$43	15d	7 Aug 2026	$1.89	9/10	$3,402	$3,284	70%	77%	+$600	-$12,934	177.2%	$-12,799 (vs do-nothing $-10,107)
$42.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.50	6/10	$3,375	$3,329	70%	77%	+$452	-$9,156	125.4%	$-9,964 (vs do-nothing $-7,272)
$43	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.29	10/10	$3,123	$2,981	69%	77%	+$510	-$13,971	191.4%	$-13,522 (vs do-nothing $-10,830)
$42.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.05	8/10	$3,280	$3,186	68%	76%	+$551	-$11,768	161.2%	$-11,948 (vs do-nothing $-9,256)
$42	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.67	5/10	$3,131	$3,109	67%	76%	+$416	-$7,795	106.8%	$-8,917 (vs do-nothing $-6,225)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.21	8/10	$3,536	$3,442	66%	76%	+$551	-$12,040	164.9%	$-12,220 (vs do-nothing $-9,528)
$42	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.60	9/10	$3,191	$3,073	65%	75%	+$455	-$13,195	180.7%	$-13,060 (vs do-nothing $-10,368)
$41.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.84	5/10	$3,450	$3,428	65%	74%	+$431	-$7,960	109.0%	$-9,082 (vs do-nothing $-6,390)
$41.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.30	7/10	$3,220	$3,150	64%	74%	+$368	-$10,822	148.3%	$-11,316 (vs do-nothing $-8,624)
$41	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.12	4/10	$3,180	$3,182	63%	73%	+$500	-$6,456	88.4%	$-7,892 (vs do-nothing $-5,200)
$41	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.48	7/10	$3,472	$3,402	62%	73%	+$362	-$11,046	151.3%	$-11,540 (vs do-nothing $-8,848)
$41	22d	14 Aug 2026	$2.95	8/10	$3,218	$3,124	62%	73%	+$399	-$12,248	167.8%	$-12,428 (vs do-nothing $-9,736)
$40.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	4/10	$3,300	$3,302	60%	72%	+$335	-$6,624	90.7%	$-8,060 (vs do-nothing $-5,368)
$40.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.68	6/10	$3,216	$3,170	60%	72%	+$314	-$9,648	132.2%	$-10,456 (vs do-nothing $-7,764)
$40	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.35	7/10	$3,198	$3,128	58%	71%	+$349	-$11,137	152.6%	$-11,631 (vs do-nothing $-8,939)
$40	15d	7 Aug 2026	$2.88	6/10	$3,456	$3,410	58%	71%	+$302	-$9,828	134.6%	$-10,636 (vs do-nothing $-7,944)
$40	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.41	4/10	$3,615	$3,617	57%	71%	+$342	-$6,740	92.3%	$-8,176 (vs do-nothing $-5,484)
$39.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$3,100	$3,078	55%	70%	+$249	-$8,330	114.1%	$-9,452 (vs do-nothing $-6,760)
$39.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.63	4/10	$3,945	$3,947	55%	70%	+$343	-$6,852	93.9%	$-8,288 (vs do-nothing $-5,596)
$39	22d	14 Aug 2026	$3.75	7/10	$3,580	$3,509	54%	69%	+$303	-$11,557	158.3%	$-12,051 (vs do-nothing $-9,359)
$39	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.25	5/10	$3,250	$3,228	53%	69%	+$163	-$8,505	116.5%	$-9,627 (vs do-nothing $-6,935)
$39	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.61	4/10	$3,915	$3,917	52%	68%	$-40	-$7,060	96.7%	$-8,496 (vs do-nothing $-5,804)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 21:36