10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.14 (banked floor $56.15) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,300/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $195/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,940 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $44 | 81% | $3,300 | $549 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $54 | 31 Jul | 8d | 42.4% | 98% | 5% | -0pp | $54 | $202 | -$3,098 | $3,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $54 42.4% OTM over spot $37.93 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.21 mid) = $54 credit for the 8d cycle → $202/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $54.22) 98% EV / mo +$87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-26/mo median; plan ~$-18/mo after 68% keep · $-55 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,744 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $56 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.39/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $2.17–$3.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 90 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $56 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $4 below CC-SS $58.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $54.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,369 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $54): -$3,669 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,442 (+$18,498 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,854, the opportunity cost of earning $202/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $47.50 | 31 Jul | 8d | 25.2% | 90% | 21% | +4pp | $320 | $1,200 | -$2,100 | $10,317 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47.50 25.2% OTM over spot $37.93 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.76 mid) = $320 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $48.26) 91% EV / mo +$276 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $471/mo median; plan ~$320/mo after 68% keep · $1,832 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.7], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,414 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $51 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.86/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $49 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $48.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,369 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47.50): -$10,317 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,888 (+$12,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $46 | 31 Jul | 8d | 21.3% | 87% | 28% | +4pp | $560 | $2,100 | -$1,200 | $11,577 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $46 21.3% OTM over spot $37.93 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.65 mid) = $560 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $46.65) 88% EV / mo +$709 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $914/mo median; plan ~$622/mo after 68% keep · $3,397 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,088 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $50 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.50–$4.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 606 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $46.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,369 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46): -$11,577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,148 (+$10,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $44 | 31 Jul | 8d | 16.0% | 81% | 29% | +7pp | $880 | $3,300 | — | $13,257 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 16.0% OTM over spot $37.93 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.09 mid) = $880 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $45.09) 84% EV / mo +$969 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,285/mo median; plan ~$874/mo after 68% keep · $5,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,653 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $49 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.58/sh now → $2.53 mid-life (likely $2.61–$4.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 869 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $45.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,369 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$13,257 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,828 (+$9,112 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,240, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $40 | 31 Jul | 8d | 5.5% | 65% | 76% | +9pp | $1,737 | $6,514 | +$3,214 | $14,586 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $40 5.5% OTM over spot $37.93 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.13 mid) = $1,737 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,514/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $42.13) 74% EV / mo +$1,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,068/mo median; plan ~$1,407/mo after 68% keep · $6,693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$335 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $52 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.25/sh now → $2.30 mid-life (likely $2.90–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,766 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $58.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.93 collected) or spot ≥ $42.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,940 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,369 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $40): -$14,586 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$202 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,359 (+$7,581 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,771, the opportunity cost of earning $6,514/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.107 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,369 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,588
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 10/10 | $3,300 | $3,105 | 81% | 84% | +$969 | -$13,257 | 181.6% | $-12,828 (vs do-nothing $-11,240) |
| $43.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 9/10 | $3,341 | $3,171 | 79% | 83% | +$968 | -$12,282 | 168.2% | $-12,055 (vs do-nothing $-10,467) |
| $43 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.06 | 8/10 | $3,180 | $3,033 | 78% | 82% | +$798 | -$11,261 | 154.3% | $-11,236 (vs do-nothing $-9,648) |
| $42.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 8/10 | $3,480 | $3,333 | 76% | 81% | +$797 | -$11,581 | 158.7% | $-11,556 (vs do-nothing $-9,968) |
| $42 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.37 | 7/10 | $3,596 | $3,474 | 74% | 79% | +$958 | -$10,337 | 141.6% | $-10,513 (vs do-nothing $-8,925) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.64 | 10/10 | $3,280 | $3,085 | 74% | 80% | +$849 | -$13,997 | 191.7% | $-13,568 (vs do-nothing $-11,980) |
| $41.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 6/10 | $3,375 | $3,276 | 72% | 79% | +$840 | -$9,082 | 124.4% | $-9,460 (vs do-nothing $-7,872) |
| $42 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.77 | 9/10 | $3,186 | $3,015 | 71% | 77% | +$391 | -$12,930 | 177.1% | $-12,703 (vs do-nothing $-11,115) |
| $41.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 9/10 | $3,294 | $3,123 | 70% | 78% | +$643 | -$13,326 | 182.6% | $-13,099 (vs do-nothing $-11,511) |
| $41 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 6/10 | $3,622 | $3,524 | 69% | 78% | +$786 | -$9,316 | 127.6% | $-9,694 (vs do-nothing $-8,106) |
| $41 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 8/10 | $3,200 | $3,053 | 68% | 76% | +$611 | -$12,109 | 165.9% | $-12,084 (vs do-nothing $-10,496) |
| $40.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 6/10 | $3,668 | $3,569 | 67% | 76% | +$502 | -$9,604 | 131.6% | $-9,982 (vs do-nothing $-8,394) |
| $41 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.41 | 10/10 | $3,286 | $3,092 | 67% | 76% | +$652 | -$14,727 | 201.7% | $-14,298 (vs do-nothing $-12,710) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.19 | 8/10 | $3,504 | $3,357 | 66% | 76% | +$664 | -$12,357 | 169.3% | $-12,332 (vs do-nothing $-10,744) |
| $40 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.93 | 5/10 | $3,619 | $3,544 | 65% | 74% | +$682 | -$8,103 | 111.0% | $-8,683 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $40 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 7/10 | $3,360 | $3,237 | 63% | 73% | +$310 | -$11,016 | 150.9% | $-11,192 (vs do-nothing $-9,604) |
| $40 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.76 | 9/10 | $3,387 | $3,217 | 63% | 72% | $-64 | -$13,839 | 189.6% | $-13,612 (vs do-nothing $-12,024) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 5/10 | $3,900 | $3,825 | 62% | 73% | +$637 | -$8,278 | 113.4% | $-8,858 (vs do-nothing $-7,270) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.51 | 7/10 | $3,514 | $3,391 | 62% | 72% | +$536 | -$11,289 | 154.6% | $-11,465 (vs do-nothing $-9,877) |
| $39 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 4/10 | $3,375 | $3,324 | 60% | 72% | +$482 | -$6,755 | 92.5% | $-7,536 (vs do-nothing $-5,948) |
| $39 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 8/10 | $3,382 | $3,235 | 59% | 70% | $-108 | -$12,829 | 175.7% | $-12,804 (vs do-nothing $-11,216) |
| $39 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 7/10 | $3,640 | $3,517 | 59% | 72% | +$388 | -$11,576 | 158.6% | $-11,752 (vs do-nothing $-10,164) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.98 | 6/10 | $3,576 | $3,477 | 57% | 71% | +$537 | -$9,994 | 136.9% | $-10,372 (vs do-nothing $-8,784) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 4/10 | $3,750 | $3,699 | 57% | 71% | +$552 | -$6,855 | 93.9% | $-7,636 (vs do-nothing $-6,048) |
| $38 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 7/10 | $3,389 | $3,266 | 56% | 68% | $-73 | -$11,611 | 159.1% | $-11,787 (vs do-nothing $-10,199) |
| $38 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 5/10 | $3,150 | $3,075 | 55% | 70% | +$394 | -$8,493 | 116.3% | $-9,073 (vs do-nothing $-7,485) |
| $38 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.81 | 3/10 | $3,161 | $3,135 | 54% | 69% | +$516 | -$5,198 | 71.2% | $-6,181 (vs do-nothing $-4,593) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 5/10 | $3,250 | $3,175 | 52% | 71% | +$256 | -$8,693 | 119.1% | $-9,273 (vs do-nothing $-7,685) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 4/10 | $3,975 | $3,924 | 51% | 68% | +$94 | -$7,195 | 98.6% | $-7,976 (vs do-nothing $-6,388) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.