FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $38.36

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.93 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $38.36 UNDERWATER $17.79 (31.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.93 (banked floor $56.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$5,743/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$145/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-22,380	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,871/mo

HEDGE COVER
$145/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,743/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
8.2 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $58.93 (probe: $58C 14d) brings only $21/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$20,216

was $22,380 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$58.93 → $56.94

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 34 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 14 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.14 (+70%) · daily UBB $49.10 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 10 contracts at $45 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 85%, breach 15%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,871/mo); it brings $2,871/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $41.50/7d for $6,086/mo, but breach risk rises to 29% (+14pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $52/7d (97% survival, $171/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $13,260 (182% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 2.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-22,515 and cuts bleed by $145/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (7d) · sell 10 × $45, 85% survival, $2,871/mo (E[net] $-140/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 7d	10 × $45	85%	$2,871	$-140

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 7d · E[net] $-140/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $45 (primary), 85% survival, breach 15%, $2,871/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 15% → 13%) for $827/mo less (29% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $38.36 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $52

31 Jul

35.5%

97%

+0pp

$40

$171

-$2,700

$2,732

Sell 4 × $52 35.5% OTM over spot $38.36 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid)

= $40 credit for the 7d cycle → $171/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $52)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $52.20)

97%

EV / mo

+$86

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$27/mo

median; plan ~$18/mo after 68% keep · $67 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,414

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 70% POP

58% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.14/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.02–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 117 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.30/sh	+$120 cycle +$160 [-$43…+$508] · 70% credit	68% surv 55%	-$6,892 NOT cap gain +$15,488
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.06/sh	-$23 cycle +$17 [-$207…+$337] · 59% credit	70% surv 58%	-$5,924 NOT cap gain +$16,456
budget: banked $40 debit $23 (57% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,789/mo while parked; 6 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$52	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.79/sh	-$318 cycle -$278 [-$492…-$1] · 25% credit	67% surv 53%	-$7,482 NOT cap gain +$14,898

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$171/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$78/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,732
… as % of IC ($7,300)	37.4%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	5.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-8,990

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $52.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $51.48	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $51-52.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $52.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$52.00 (2.4σ)	$40	$-7,165	+$15,215	+$24
+2.5%	$53.30 (2.7σ)	$-480	$-6,240	+$16,140	-$496
+5%	$54.60 (2.9σ)	$-1,000	$-5,316	+$17,064	-$1,016
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-1,620	$-4,304	+$18,076	-$1,576

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,850

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $52): -$2,732

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $56): -$1,734

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,996 (+$18,384 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,420 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,576, the opportunity cost of earning $171/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $48

31 Jul

25.1%

92%

17%

+3pp

$290

$1,243

-$1,629

$10,640

Sell 10 × $48 25.1% OTM over spot $38.36 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.48 mid)

= $290 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,243/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.48)

93%

EV / mo

+$515

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

54% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$581/mo

median; plan ~$395/mo after 68% keep · $2,576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,066

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 70% POP

60% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.74/sh now → $3.36 mid-life (likely $2.66–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 345 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $50 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.46/sh	+$465 cycle +$755 [-$117…+$1,429] · 72% credit	68% surv 55%	-$10,765 NOT cap gain +$11,615
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.06/sh	+$55 cycle +$345 [-$647…+$914] · 54% credit	70% surv 60%	-$9,508 NOT cap gain +$12,872
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.61/sh	-$614 cycle -$324 [-$1,178…+$196] · 29% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,996 NOT cap gain +$10,384

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,243/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-57%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	22% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,098/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,640
… as % of IC ($7,300)	145.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	22.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,570

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $48.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.7σ)	$290	$-11,383	+$10,997	+$250
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.9σ)	$-910	$-11,250	+$11,130	-$950
+5%	$50.40 (2.2σ)	$-2,110	$-11,116	+$11,264	-$2,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-7,860	$-10,478	+$11,902	-$7,750

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,850

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$10,640

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,170 (+$12,210 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,420 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,750, the opportunity cost of earning $1,243/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

9 × $46

31 Jul

19.9%

87%

26%

+5pp

$477

$2,044

-$827

$11,160

Sell 9 × $46 19.9% OTM over spot $38.36 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.74 mid)

= $477 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,044/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $46.74)

89%

EV / mo

+$844

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$881/mo

median; plan ~$599/mo after 68% keep · $3,892 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,418

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 73% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.55/sh now → $3.22 mid-life (likely $2.93–$5.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 550 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $48 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.54/sh	+$482 cycle +$959 [-$173…+$1,046] · 65% credit	68% surv 55%	-$12,779 NOT cap gain +$9,601
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$103 cycle +$580 [-$706…+$590] · 43% credit	70% surv 60%	-$11,492 NOT cap gain +$10,888
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.50/sh	-$454 cycle +$23 [-$1,395…-$4] · 25% credit	73% surv 65%	-$10,382 NOT cap gain +$11,998
budget: banked $477 debit $454 (95% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,051/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.53/sh	-$478 cycle -$1 [-$1,132…-$21] · 24% credit	67% surv 53%	-$13,891 NOT cap gain +$8,489

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,044/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,908/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,160
… as % of IC ($7,300)	152.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	23.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-20,331

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $46.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.74	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.74	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.4σ)	$477	$-13,414	+$8,966	+$441
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.6σ)	$-558	$-13,171	+$9,209	-$594
+5%	$48.30 (1.8σ)	$-1,593	$-12,928	+$9,452	-$1,629
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-8,658	$-11,287	+$11,093	-$8,559

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,850

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $46): -$11,160

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$289

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,979 (+$11,401 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,420 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,559, the opportunity cost of earning $2,044/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $45

31 Jul

17.3%

85%

22%

+7pp

$670

$2,871

—

$13,260

Sell 10 × $45 17.3% OTM over spot $38.36 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.80 mid)

= $670 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,871/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $45.80)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,081

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,293/mo

median; plan ~$879/mo after 68% keep · $4,917 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,477

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 73% POP

65% survival

Buyback gross: $4.45/sh now → $3.15 mid-life (likely $2.94–$5.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 670 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$45	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.57/sh	+$567 cycle +$1,237 [-$371…+$1,136] · 61% credit	68% surv 55%	-$13,616 NOT cap gain +$8,764
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$141 cycle +$811 [-$950…+$644] · 42% credit	70% surv 61%	-$12,376 NOT cap gain +$10,004
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.47/sh	-$474 cycle +$196 [-$1,703…-$33] · 24% credit	73% surv 65%	-$11,324 NOT cap gain +$11,056
budget: banked $670 debit $474 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$196 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,341/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.49/sh	-$491 cycle +$179 [-$1,398…-$32] · 24% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,827 NOT cap gain +$7,553

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,871/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,727/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,260
… as % of IC ($7,300)	181.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	28.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,515

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $45.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.80	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.80	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (1.2σ)	$670	$-14,336	+$8,044	+$630
+2.5%	$46.12 (1.4σ)	$-455	$-14,211	+$8,169	-$495
+5%	$47.25 (1.6σ)	$-1,580	$-14,086	+$8,294	-$1,620
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-10,480	$-13,098	+$9,282	-$10,370

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,850

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$13,260

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,790 (+$9,590 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,420 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,370, the opportunity cost of earning $2,871/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $41.50

31 Jul

8.2%

71%

62%

+11pp

$1,420

$6,086

+$3,214

$16,010

Sell 10 × $41.50 8.2% OTM over spot $38.36 31 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.59 mid)

= $1,420 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,086/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41.50)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $43.09)

78%

EV / mo

+$1,436

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+11pp

65% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,148/mo

median; plan ~$1,461/mo after 68% keep · $7,933 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.2], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

47%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,482

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 80% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life (likely $3.49–$5.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,408 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $43 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$20 cycle +$1,440 [-$1,349…-$263] · 19% credit	72% surv 63%	-$15,080 NOT cap gain +$7,300
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$42	7 Aug 2026	10d left	-$0.36/sh	-$363 cycle +$1,057 [-$1,450…-$581] · 12% credit	67% surv 53%	-$17,837 NOT cap gain +$4,543
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.36/sh	-$1,360 cycle +$60 [-$3,085…-$1,740] · 1% credit	80% surv 77%	-$10,905 NOT cap gain +$11,475
budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,360 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,927/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,086/mo
vs 50% target ($2,871/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($5,743/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,941/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41.50 is $17 below CC-SS $58.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,010
… as % of IC ($7,300)	219.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	33.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,550

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $43.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $49.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $41.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-43.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $43.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,420	$-17,474	+$4,906	+$1,380
+2.5%	$42.54 (≤1σ, normal week)	$383	$-17,359	+$5,021	+$343
+5%	$43.58 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-655	$-17,244	+$5,136	-$695
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (3.2σ)	$-13,230	$-15,848	+$6,532	-$13,120

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.93, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,850

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $41.50): -$16,010

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,540 (+$6,840 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,420 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,120, the opportunity cost of earning $6,086/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (38 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.111 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,850 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,420

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$45	7d	31 Jul 2026	$0.67	10/10	$2,871	$2,727	85%	87%	+$1,081	-$13,260	181.6%	$-12,790 (vs do-nothing $-10,370)
$44.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$0.73	10/10	$3,129	$2,984	83%	86%	+$1,060	-$13,700	187.7%	$-13,230 (vs do-nothing $-10,810)
$44	7d	31 Jul 2026	$0.84	8/10	$2,880	$2,752	81%	85%	+$973	-$11,272	154.4%	$-11,380 (vs do-nothing $-8,960)
$43.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$0.96	7/10	$2,880	$2,761	79%	84%	+$962	-$10,129	138.8%	$-10,526 (vs do-nothing $-8,106)
$43	7d	31 Jul 2026	$0.99	7/10	$2,970	$2,851	77%	82%	+$771	-$10,458	143.3%	$-10,855 (vs do-nothing $-8,435)
$43.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	10/10	$2,871	$2,727	76%	82%	+$756	-$14,090	193.0%	$-13,620 (vs do-nothing $-11,200)
$42.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.04	7/10	$3,120	$3,001	75%	81%	+$607	-$10,773	147.6%	$-11,170 (vs do-nothing $-8,750)
$43	14d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	10/10	$2,871	$2,727	74%	80%	+$522	-$14,590	199.9%	$-14,120 (vs do-nothing $-11,700)
$42	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.19	6/10	$3,060	$2,950	73%	79%	+$605	-$9,444	129.4%	$-10,130 (vs do-nothing $-7,710)
$42.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$1.49	9/10	$2,874	$2,737	73%	79%	+$528	-$13,446	184.2%	$-13,265 (vs do-nothing $-10,845)
$42	14d	7 Aug 2026	$1.61	9/10	$3,105	$2,969	71%	78%	+$508	-$13,788	188.9%	$-13,607 (vs do-nothing $-11,187)
$41.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.42	5/10	$3,043	$2,941	71%	78%	+$718	-$8,005	109.7%	$-8,980 (vs do-nothing $-6,560)
$41.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$1.63	9/10	$3,144	$3,007	69%	77%	+$272	-$14,220	194.8%	$-14,039 (vs do-nothing $-11,619)

Show 25 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$41	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.52	5/10	$3,257	$3,155	68%	77%	+$624	-$8,205	112.4%	$-9,180 (vs do-nothing $-6,760)
$41	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.05	7/10	$3,075	$2,956	66%	76%	+$609	-$11,116	152.3%	$-11,513 (vs do-nothing $-9,093)
$40.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.70	4/10	$2,914	$2,821	66%	76%	+$536	-$6,692	91.7%	$-7,956 (vs do-nothing $-5,536)
$41	21d	14 Aug 2026	$2.29	9/10	$2,944	$2,808	66%	75%	+$323	-$14,076	192.8%	$-13,895 (vs do-nothing $-11,475)
$41	28d	21 Aug 2026	$2.81	10/10	$3,011	$2,866	65%	74%	+$80	-$15,120	207.1%	$-14,650 (vs do-nothing $-12,230)
$40.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.15	7/10	$3,225	$3,106	64%	75%	+$507	-$11,396	156.1%	$-11,793 (vs do-nothing $-9,373)
$40.50	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	9/10	$2,893	$2,757	63%	73%	+$83	-$13,887	190.2%	$-13,706 (vs do-nothing $-11,286)
$40	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.85	4/10	$3,171	$3,078	63%	74%	+$495	-$6,832	93.6%	$-8,096 (vs do-nothing $-5,676)
$40	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.24	6/10	$2,880	$2,770	62%	73%	+$317	-$10,014	137.2%	$-10,700 (vs do-nothing $-8,280)
$40	21d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	8/10	$3,086	$2,958	62%	73%	+$350	-$12,984	177.9%	$-13,092 (vs do-nothing $-10,672)
$40	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	9/10	$3,086	$2,950	61%	72%	+$95	-$14,157	193.9%	$-13,976 (vs do-nothing $-11,556)
$39.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.06	4/10	$3,531	$3,438	60%	74%	+$530	-$6,948	95.2%	$-8,212 (vs do-nothing $-5,792)
$39.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.37	6/10	$3,047	$2,937	60%	72%	+$233	-$10,236	140.2%	$-10,922 (vs do-nothing $-8,502)
$39.50	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	9/10	$3,182	$3,046	60%	72%	+$388	-$14,517	198.9%	$-14,336 (vs do-nothing $-11,916)
$39	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	9/10	$3,182	$3,046	58%	71%	+$187	-$14,967	205.0%	$-14,786 (vs do-nothing $-12,366)
$39	21d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	7/10	$3,050	$2,931	57%	71%	+$253	-$11,816	161.9%	$-12,213 (vs do-nothing $-9,793)
$39	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.64	6/10	$3,394	$3,284	57%	71%	+$311	-$10,374	142.1%	$-11,060 (vs do-nothing $-8,640)
$39	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.30	3/10	$2,957	$2,872	57%	72%	+$442	-$5,289	72.5%	$-6,842 (vs do-nothing $-4,422)
$38.50	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	8/10	$3,129	$3,001	56%	70%	+$277	-$13,424	183.9%	$-13,532 (vs do-nothing $-11,112)
$38.50	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.68	5/10	$2,871	$2,770	55%	70%	+$61	-$8,875	121.6%	$-9,850 (vs do-nothing $-7,430)
$38.50	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.32	3/10	$2,983	$2,898	54%	71%	+$181	-$5,433	74.4%	$-6,986 (vs do-nothing $-4,566)
$38	28d	21 Aug 2026	$3.95	7/10	$2,963	$2,844	54%	70%	+$293	-$11,886	162.8%	$-12,283 (vs do-nothing $-9,863)
$38	21d	14 Aug 2026	$3.35	7/10	$3,350	$3,231	53%	69%	+$99	-$12,306	168.6%	$-12,703 (vs do-nothing $-10,283)
$38	14d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$3,321	$3,220	52%	69%	+$254	-$8,915	122.1%	$-9,890 (vs do-nothing $-7,470)
$38	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.65	3/10	$3,407	$3,322	51%	70%	+$296	-$5,484	75.1%	$-7,037 (vs do-nothing $-4,617)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-24 21:40