FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $37.51

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $60.05 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $37.51 UNDERWATER $18.64 (33.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $60.05 (banked floor $58.06) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$5,453/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$121/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-24,550	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,726/mo

HEDGE COVER
$121/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,453/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
8.7 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $60.05 (probe: $58C 17d) brings only $88/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$22,386

was $24,550 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$60.05 → $58.06

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 34 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 31 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.08 (+74%) · daily UBB $48.64 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 8 contracts at $47 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 95%, breach 5%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,726/mo); it brings $2,800/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $45/3d for $5,900/mo, but breach risk rises to 10% (+4pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 7 × $53/3d (99+% survival, $140/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,162 (139% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 8 contracts realizes $-19,676 and cuts bleed by $97/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 8 × $47, 95% survival, $2,800/mo (E[net] $759/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 3d	8 × $47	95%	$2,800	$759
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 10d	10 × $44.50	83%	$2,970	$299

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $280 with probability 93%; on the 7% touch you roll, paying $2,972 to close and taking $378 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,595) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $759/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 8 × $47 (50% normal), 95% survival, breach 5%, $2,800/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $48 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 96% (breach 5% → 4%) for $800/mo less (29% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $37.51 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

7 × $53

31 Jul

41.3%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-1pp

$14

$140

-$2,660

$4,923

Sell 7 × $53 41.3% OTM over spot $37.51 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid)

= $14 credit for the 3d cycle → $140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $53)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $53.06)

99+%

EV / mo

+$140

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

41% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-92/mo

median; plan ~$-62/mo after 68% keep · $-824 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.2-4.4], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,919

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 72% POP

53% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.92/sh now → $4.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$53	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.57/sh	-$402 cycle -$388	72% surv 53%	-$7,698 NOT cap gain +$16,852
Max even-money escape in the band	~$53	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$131 cycle +$145	69% surv 54%	-$7,176 NOT cap gain +$17,374
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$45/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $53 is $7 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,923
… as % of IC ($7,300)	67.4%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	10.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$-17,213

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $53.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $52.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $52-53.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $53.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$53.00 (4.4σ)	$14	$-7,296	+$17,254	-$21
+2.5%	$54.32 (4.7σ)	$-913	$-6,750	+$17,800	-$948
+5%	$55.65 (5.1σ)	$-1,841	$-6,204	+$18,346	-$1,876
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-2,191	$-6,043	+$18,507	-$2,121

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (7 × $53): -$4,923

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$1,201

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,606 (+$18,944 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,121, the opportunity cost of earning $140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $48

7 Aug

10d

28.0%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+3pp

$380

$1,140

-$1,660

$11,673

Sell 10 × $48 28.0% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.59 mid)

= $380 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$501

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$553/mo

median; plan ~$376/mo after 68% keep · $2,867 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,009

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $2.75–$4.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.04/sh	+$37 cycle +$417 [-$527…+$771] · 52% credit	69% surv 56%	-$11,923 NOT cap gain +$12,627
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.23/sh	-$227 cycle +$153 [-$799…+$448] · 38% credit	73% surv 62%	-$10,519 NOT cap gain +$14,031
budget: banked $380 debit $227 (60% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,993/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.41/sh	-$405 cycle -$25 [-$957…+$223] · 32% credit	67% surv 53%	-$12,911 NOT cap gain +$11,639

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,019/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $12 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,673
… as % of IC ($7,300)	159.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,765

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $48.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.6σ)	$380	$-12,505	+$12,045	+$330
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.8σ)	$-820	$-12,371	+$12,179	-$870
+5%	$50.40 (2.0σ)	$-2,020	$-12,236	+$12,314	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,770	$-11,592	+$12,958	-$7,670

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$11,673

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,155 (+$13,395 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,670, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

8 × $48

31 Jul

28.0%

96%hist 100%

8%hist 1%

+5pp

$200

$2,000

-$800

$9,442

Sell 8 × $48 28.0% OTM over spot $37.51 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.36 mid)

= $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.36)

96%

EV / mo

+$1,614

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,309/mo

median; plan ~$890/mo after 68% keep · $3,380 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,836

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 72% POP

53% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.36/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $3.33–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 164 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.43/sh	+$344 cycle +$544 [-$745…+$897] · 57% credit	69% surv 54%	-$12,342 NOT cap gain +$12,208
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.32/sh	-$257 cycle -$57 [-$920…+$318] · 42% credit	72% surv 53%	-$12,932 NOT cap gain +$11,618

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-27%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,896/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $12 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,442
… as % of IC ($7,300)	129.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-19,728

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $48.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (3.0σ)	$200	$-12,675	+$11,875	+$160
+2.5%	$49.20 (3.3σ)	$-760	$-12,301	+$12,249	-$800
+5%	$50.40 (3.6σ)	$-1,720	$-11,926	+$12,624	-$1,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-6,320	$-10,162	+$14,388	-$6,240

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $48): -$9,442

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$801

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,725 (+$14,825 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,240, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

8 × $47

31 Jul

25.3%

95%hist 100%

11%hist 5%

+7pp

$280

$2,800

—

$10,162

Sell 8 × $47 25.3% OTM over spot $37.51 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.40 mid)

= $280 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $47.40)

95%

EV / mo

+$2,193

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,634/mo

median; plan ~$1,111/mo after 68% keep · $4,921 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,692

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Buyback gross: $5.25/sh now → $3.72 mid-life (likely $3.29–$5.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 213 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.47/sh	+$378 cycle +$658 [-$417…+$841] · 59% credit	69% surv 54%	-$13,341 NOT cap gain +$11,209
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.28/sh	-$221 cycle +$59 [-$710…+$224] · 42% credit	72% surv 53%	-$13,928 NOT cap gain +$10,622
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.23/sh	-$186 cycle +$94 [-$1,102…+$252] · 39% credit	73% surv 62%	-$11,680 NOT cap gain +$12,870
budget: banked $280 debit $186 (66% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,800/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,696/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47 is $13 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,162
… as % of IC ($7,300)	139.2%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-19,676

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $47.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (2.7σ)	$280	$-13,707	+$10,843	+$240
+2.5%	$48.17 (3.0σ)	$-660	$-13,341	+$11,209	-$700
+5%	$49.35 (3.3σ)	$-1,600	$-12,974	+$11,576	-$1,640
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-7,040	$-10,882	+$13,668	-$6,960

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $47): -$10,162

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$801

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,445 (+$14,105 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,960, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $45

31 Jul

20.0%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 13%

+9pp

$590

$5,900

+$3,100

$14,463

Sell 10 × $45 20.0% OTM over spot $37.51 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.64 mid)

= $590 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $45.63)

92%

EV / mo

+$4,140

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,945/mo

median; plan ~$2,002/mo after 68% keep · $9,857 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,967

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 75% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.03/sh now → $3.56 mid-life (likely $3.38–$6.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $2.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$45	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$81 cycle +$671 [-$1,397…+$468] · 44% credit	69% surv 56%	-$15,005 NOT cap gain +$9,545
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.19/sh	-$190 cycle +$400 [-$1,120…+$269] · 41% credit	72% surv 53%	-$15,821 NOT cap gain +$8,729
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.59/sh	-$590 cycle +$0 [-$2,214…-$232] · 15% credit	75% surv 66%	-$12,896 NOT cap gain +$11,654
budget: banked $590 debit $590 (100% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$0 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,047/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,900/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	+116%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,779/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $15 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,463
… as % of IC ($7,300)	198.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	30.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,595

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$590	$-15,631	+$8,919	+$540
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-535	$-15,505	+$9,045	-$585
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,660	$-15,379	+$9,171	-$1,710
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-10,560	$-14,382	+$10,168	-$10,460

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$14,463

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,945 (+$10,605 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,460, the opportunity cost of earning $5,900/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $299/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $44.50 (50% normal), 83% survival, breach 17%, $2,970/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 17% → 13%) for $1,170/mo less (39% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $37.51 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $54

7 Aug

10d

44.0%

98%hist 100%

5%hist 1%

+0pp

$45

$135

-$2,835

$2,981

Sell 5 × $54 44.0% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid)

= $45 credit for the 10d cycle → $135/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $54)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $54.23)

98%

EV / mo

+$84

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$19/mo

median; plan ~$13/mo after 68% keep · $51 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,861

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$54 @ 69% POP

56% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.39/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $2.48–$4.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 62 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $56 (overshoots $1.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$54	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.23/sh	+$116 cycle +$161 [+$19…+$803] · 76% credit	69% surv 54%	-$6,038 NOT cap gain +$18,512
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$54	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.24/sh	-$118 cycle -$73 [-$234…+$539] · 63% credit	69% surv 56%	-$5,717 NOT cap gain +$18,833
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.69/sh	-$343 cycle -$298 [-$458…+$226] · 44% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,486 NOT cap gain +$18,064

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$135/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$58/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $54 is $6 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$2,981
… as % of IC ($7,300)	40.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	6.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-12,345

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $54.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $53-54.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $54.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$54.00 (2.5σ)	$45	$-6,143	+$18,407	+$20
+2.5%	$55.35 (2.7σ)	$-630	$-5,317	+$19,233	-$655
+5%	$56.70 (3.0σ)	$-1,305	$-4,841	+$19,709	-$980

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $54): -$2,981

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$2,001

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,465 (+$20,085 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-980, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $48

7 Aug

10d

28.0%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+3pp

$380

$1,140

-$1,830

$11,673

Sell 10 × $48 28.0% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.59 mid)

= $380 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$501

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$553/mo

median; plan ~$376/mo after 68% keep · $2,867 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,009

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.04/sh	+$37 cycle +$417 [-$527…+$771] · 52% credit	69% surv 56%	-$11,923 NOT cap gain +$12,627
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.23/sh	-$227 cycle +$153 [-$799…+$448] · 38% credit	73% surv 62%	-$10,519 NOT cap gain +$14,031
budget: banked $380 debit $227 (60% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$153 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,993/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.41/sh	-$405 cycle -$25 [-$957…+$223] · 32% credit	67% surv 53%	-$12,911 NOT cap gain +$11,639

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,019/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $12 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,673
… as % of IC ($7,300)	159.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,765

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.6σ)	$380	$-12,505	+$12,045	+$330
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.8σ)	$-820	$-12,371	+$12,179	-$870
+5%	$50.40 (2.0σ)	$-2,020	$-12,236	+$12,314	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,770	$-11,592	+$12,958	-$7,670

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$11,673

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,155 (+$13,395 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,670, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

8 × $46

7 Aug

10d

22.6%

87%hist 99%

27%hist 13%

+4pp

$600

$1,800

-$1,170

$10,642

Sell 8 × $46 22.6% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.91 mid)

= $600 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $46.91)

89%

EV / mo

+$909

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$853/mo

median; plan ~$580/mo after 68% keep · $4,272 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,998

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 75% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 440 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.11/sh	+$91 cycle +$691 [-$402…+$586] · 50% credit	69% surv 56%	-$13,864 NOT cap gain +$10,686
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.32/sh	-$259 cycle +$341 [-$730…+$147] · 30% credit	67% surv 53%	-$14,758 NOT cap gain +$9,792
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.58/sh	-$466 cycle +$134 [-$1,026…-$55] · 23% credit	75% surv 66%	-$11,640 NOT cap gain +$12,910
budget: banked $600 debit $466 (78% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$134 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,367/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	-34%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,696/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $14 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,642
… as % of IC ($7,300)	145.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	22.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-19,768

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $46.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.91	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.91	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.3σ)	$600	$-14,499	+$10,051	+$560
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.5σ)	$-320	$-14,140	+$10,410	-$360
+5%	$48.30 (1.7σ)	$-1,240	$-13,782	+$10,768	-$1,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,520	$-11,362	+$13,188	-$7,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $46): -$10,642

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$801

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,925 (+$13,625 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,440, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $44.50

7 Aug

10d

18.6%

83%hist 99%

35%hist 18%

+5pp

$990

$2,970

—

$14,563

Sell 10 × $44.50 18.6% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.16 mid)

= $990 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,970/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44.50)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $45.66)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,321

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,244/mo

median; plan ~$846/mo after 68% keep · $7,005 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-4.1], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,152

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $2.98–$4.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $46 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.05/sh	+$48 cycle +$1,038 [-$691…+$388] · 41% credit	72% surv 60%	-$14,082 NOT cap gain +$10,468
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.27/sh	-$266 cycle +$724 [-$983…+$28] · 26% credit	67% surv 54%	-$16,053 NOT cap gain +$8,497
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.96/sh	-$960 cycle +$30 [-$1,871…-$747] · 7% credit	78% surv 72%	-$11,754 NOT cap gain +$12,796
budget: banked $990 debit $960 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,446/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,970/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	+9%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,849/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44.50 is $16 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,563
… as % of IC ($7,300)	199.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	30.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,720

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $45.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.50 (1.1σ)	$990	$-15,787	+$8,763	+$940
+2.5%	$45.61 (1.2σ)	$-122	$-15,663	+$8,887	-$172
+5%	$46.73 (1.4σ)	$-1,235	$-15,538	+$9,012	-$1,285
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-10,660	$-14,482	+$10,068	-$10,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44.50): -$14,563

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,045 (+$10,505 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $41

7 Aug

10d

9.3%

71%hist 96%

63%hist 51%

+10pp

$1,850

$5,550

+$2,580

$17,203

Sell 10 × $41 9.3% OTM over spot $37.51 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.00 mid)

= $1,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $43.01)

78%

EV / mo

+$1,783

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,849/mo

median; plan ~$1,258/mo after 68% keep · $8,649 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

46%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,045

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $4.09/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $3.34–$4.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,380 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $42 (overshoots $1.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$42	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.14/sh	+$143 cycle +$1,993 [-$722…+$14] · 26% credit	72% surv 61%	-$17,019 NOT cap gain +$7,531
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$44 cycle +$1,894 [-$681…-$73] · 21% credit	70% surv 56%	-$18,230 NOT cap gain +$6,320
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.14/sh	-$143 cycle +$1,707 [-$981…-$290] · 16% credit	67% surv 54%	-$18,962 NOT cap gain +$5,588
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.82/sh	-$1,816 cycle +$34 [-$3,173…-$2,143]	86% surv 84%	-$11,195 NOT cap gain +$13,355
budget: banked $1,850 debit $1,816 (98% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,703/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,726/mo)	+104%
vs normal income ($5,453/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,429/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41 is $19 below CC-SS $60.05: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$17,203
… as % of IC ($7,300)	235.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	36.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,705

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $43.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.59	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-43.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $43.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,850	$-18,819	+$5,731	+$1,800
+2.5%	$42.02 (≤1σ, normal week)	$825	$-18,704	+$5,846	+$775
+5%	$43.05 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-200	$-18,590	+$5,960	-$250
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-13,300	$-17,122	+$7,428	-$13,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $60.05, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$25,068

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $41): -$17,203

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,685 (+$7,865 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,485 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,200, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (58 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 58 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,068 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,485

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.35	8/10	$2,800	$2,696	95%	95%	+$2,193	-$10,162	139.2%	$-10,445 (vs do-nothing $-6,960)
$46.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.28	10/10	$2,800	$2,679	94%	94%	+$1,856	-$13,273	181.8%	$-12,755 (vs do-nothing $-9,270)
$46	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.37	8/10	$2,960	$2,856	93%	93%	+$2,026	-$10,946	149.9%	$-11,229 (vs do-nothing $-7,744)
$45.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.45	7/10	$3,150	$3,055	92%	93%	+$2,144	-$9,872	135.2%	$-10,555 (vs do-nothing $-7,070)
$45	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.59	5/10	$2,950	$2,873	90%	92%	+$2,070	-$7,231	99.1%	$-8,715 (vs do-nothing $-5,230)
$44.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.60	5/10	$3,000	$2,923	89%	91%	+$1,928	-$7,476	102.4%	$-8,960 (vs do-nothing $-5,475)
$44	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.72	4/10	$2,880	$2,812	87%	90%	+$1,842	-$6,133	84.0%	$-8,017 (vs do-nothing $-4,532)
$43.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.78	4/10	$3,120	$3,052	86%	89%	+$1,870	-$6,309	86.4%	$-8,193 (vs do-nothing $-4,708)
$43	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.89	4/10	$3,560	$3,492	84%	87%	+$2,062	-$6,465	88.6%	$-8,349 (vs do-nothing $-4,864)
$44.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.99	10/10	$2,970	$2,849	83%	86%	+$1,321	-$14,563	199.5%	$-14,045 (vs do-nothing $-10,560)
$44	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	9/10	$2,997	$2,885	82%	85%	+$1,314	-$13,449	184.2%	$-13,331 (vs do-nothing $-9,846)
$42.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.03	3/10	$3,090	$3,031	82%	86%	+$1,751	-$4,957	67.9%	$-7,241 (vs do-nothing $-3,756)
$43.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.22	8/10	$2,928	$2,824	80%	84%	+$1,236	-$12,266	168.0%	$-12,549 (vs do-nothing $-9,064)

Show 45 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.16	3/10	$3,480	$3,421	80%	85%	+$1,894	-$5,068	69.4%	$-7,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,867)
$43	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	7/10	$2,814	$2,719	78%	83%	+$1,144	-$10,999	150.7%	$-11,682 (vs do-nothing $-8,197)
$41.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.23	3/10	$3,690	$3,631	77%	83%	+$1,820	-$5,197	71.2%	$-7,481 (vs do-nothing $-3,996)
$42.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.43	7/10	$3,003	$2,908	77%	82%	+$1,123	-$11,286	154.6%	$-11,969 (vs do-nothing $-8,484)
$42	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.64	6/10	$2,952	$2,866	75%	81%	+$1,144	-$9,848	134.9%	$-10,931 (vs do-nothing $-7,446)
$41	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.41	2/10	$2,820	$2,769	75%	82%	+$1,358	-$3,529	48.3%	$-6,213 (vs do-nothing $-2,728)
$42	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.85	9/10	$2,938	$2,826	73%	80%	+$870	-$14,583	199.8%	$-14,465 (vs do-nothing $-10,980)
$41.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.69	6/10	$3,042	$2,956	73%	80%	+$1,018	-$10,118	138.6%	$-11,201 (vs do-nothing $-7,716)
$40.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.56	2/10	$3,120	$3,069	72%	80%	+$1,414	-$3,599	49.3%	$-6,283 (vs do-nothing $-2,798)
$42	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.31	10/10	$2,888	$2,766	72%	79%	+$914	-$15,743	215.7%	$-15,225 (vs do-nothing $-11,740)
$41.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.93	9/10	$3,065	$2,953	71%	79%	+$794	-$14,961	204.9%	$-14,843 (vs do-nothing $-11,358)
$41	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	5/10	$2,775	$2,698	71%	78%	+$891	-$8,601	117.8%	$-10,085 (vs do-nothing $-6,600)
$41.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.43	9/10	$2,734	$2,621	70%	78%	+$807	-$14,511	198.8%	$-14,393 (vs do-nothing $-10,908)
$41	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.01	8/10	$2,838	$2,734	69%	77%	+$627	-$13,634	186.8%	$-13,917 (vs do-nothing $-10,432)
$40	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.72	2/10	$3,440	$3,389	69%	79%	+$1,459	-$3,667	50.2%	$-6,351 (vs do-nothing $-2,866)
$40.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.84	5/10	$2,760	$2,683	69%	77%	+$662	-$8,856	121.3%	$-10,340 (vs do-nothing $-6,855)
$41	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.55	9/10	$2,869	$2,756	68%	78%	+$780	-$14,853	203.5%	$-14,735 (vs do-nothing $-11,250)
$40.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.94	8/10	$2,739	$2,635	67%	76%	+$316	-$14,090	193.0%	$-14,373 (vs do-nothing $-10,888)
$40.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.73	8/10	$2,730	$2,626	67%	77%	+$719	-$13,458	184.4%	$-13,741 (vs do-nothing $-10,256)
$40	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.19	5/10	$3,285	$3,208	66%	77%	+$954	-$8,931	122.3%	$-10,415 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)
$39.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.86	2/10	$3,720	$3,669	66%	77%	+$1,432	-$3,739	51.2%	$-6,423 (vs do-nothing $-2,938)
$40	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.65	6/10	$2,806	$2,720	65%	76%	+$818	-$10,442	143.0%	$-11,525 (vs do-nothing $-8,040)
$39.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	4/10	$2,856	$2,788	65%	77%	+$1,177	-$7,269	99.6%	$-9,153 (vs do-nothing $-5,668)
$40	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/10	$3,000	$2,896	65%	76%	+$824	-$13,642	186.9%	$-13,925 (vs do-nothing $-10,440)
$39.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.57	7/10	$3,175	$3,080	63%	75%	+$641	-$12,588	172.4%	$-13,271 (vs do-nothing $-9,786)
$39	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.08	2/10	$4,160	$4,109	63%	76%	+$1,531	-$3,795	52.0%	$-6,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,994)
$39.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.15	7/10	$2,756	$2,662	63%	75%	+$699	-$12,182	166.9%	$-12,865 (vs do-nothing $-9,380)
$39	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.57	4/10	$3,084	$3,016	62%	75%	+$800	-$7,393	101.3%	$-9,277 (vs do-nothing $-5,792)
$39	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	6/10	$3,229	$3,144	61%	74%	+$862	-$10,802	148.0%	$-11,885 (vs do-nothing $-8,400)
$39	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	7/10	$2,888	$2,793	61%	74%	+$666	-$12,427	170.2%	$-13,110 (vs do-nothing $-9,625)
$38.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.31	2/10	$4,620	$4,569	60%	74%	+$1,613	-$3,849	52.7%	$-6,533 (vs do-nothing $-3,048)
$38.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.79	4/10	$3,348	$3,280	59%	75%	+$1,227	-$7,505	102.8%	$-9,389 (vs do-nothing $-5,904)
$38.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/10	$2,800	$2,705	59%	72%	+$404	-$12,847	176.0%	$-13,530 (vs do-nothing $-10,045)
$38.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$2,735	$2,658	59%	73%	+$588	-$9,226	126.4%	$-10,710 (vs do-nothing $-7,225)
$38	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.40	7/10	$2,975	$2,880	57%	72%	+$395	-$13,057	178.9%	$-13,740 (vs do-nothing $-10,255)
$38	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.35	5/10	$2,956	$2,879	57%	72%	+$622	-$9,351	128.1%	$-10,835 (vs do-nothing $-7,350)
$38	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.05	3/10	$2,745	$2,686	56%	74%	+$966	-$5,701	78.1%	$-7,985 (vs do-nothing $-4,500)
$38	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.60	2/10	$5,200	$5,149	56%	73%	+$1,777	-$3,891	53.3%	$-6,575 (vs do-nothing $-3,090)
$37.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.85	6/10	$2,888	$2,802	55%	72%	+$508	-$11,222	153.7%	$-12,305 (vs do-nothing $-8,820)
$37.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$2,735	$2,658	54%	71%	+$204	-$9,726	133.2%	$-11,210 (vs do-nothing $-7,725)
$37.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	3/10	$2,970	$2,911	53%	73%	+$987	-$5,776	79.1%	$-8,060 (vs do-nothing $-4,575)
$37.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.93	2/10	$3,860	$3,809	53%	72%	$-18	-$4,125	56.5%	$-6,809 (vs do-nothing $-3,324)
$37	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.80	5/10	$3,353	$3,276	52%	70%	+$611	-$9,626	131.9%	$-11,110 (vs do-nothing $-7,625)
$37	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	3/10	$3,060	$3,001	50%	71%	+$857	-$5,896	80.8%	$-8,180 (vs do-nothing $-4,695)
$37	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.95	1/10	$2,950	$2,908	49%	70%	+$764	-$2,010	27.5%	$-5,095 (vs do-nothing $-1,610)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 11:53