FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $37.55

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $57.87 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $37.55 UNDERWATER $18.60 (33.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $57.87 (banked floor $55.89) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$5,382/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$121/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-22,170	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,691/mo

HEDGE COVER
$121/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,382/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
8.8 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $57.87 (probe: $58C 17d) brings only $88/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$20,006

was $22,170 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$57.87 → $55.89

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 34 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 14 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.08 (+73%) · daily UBB $48.64 · 1-wk expected move ±$5 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 8 contracts at $47 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 94%, breach 6%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,691/mo); it brings $2,800/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $45/3d for $5,900/mo, but breach risk rises to 10% (+4pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 7 × $53/3d (99% survival, $140/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,418 (115% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 1.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 8 contracts realizes $-17,772 and cuts bleed by $97/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 8 × $47, 94% survival, $2,800/mo (E[net] $516/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 3d	8 × $47	94%	$2,800	$516
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 10d	10 × $44.50	83%	$2,970	$-195

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $280 with probability 93%; on the 7% touch you roll, paying $2,945 to close and taking $23 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,921) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $516/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 8 × $47 (50% normal), 94% survival, breach 6%, $2,800/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $48 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 96% (breach 6% → 4%) for $800/mo less (29% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $37.55 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

7 × $53

31 Jul

41.1%

99%hist 100%

1%hist 1%

+0pp

$14

$140

-$2,660

$3,397

Sell 7 × $53 41.1% OTM over spot $37.55 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.06 mid)

= $14 credit for the 3d cycle → $140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $53)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $53.06)

99%

EV / mo

+$113

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-0/mo

median; plan ~$-0/mo after 68% keep · $-1 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,892

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 70% POP

53% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.87/sh now → $4.15 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$53	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.47/sh	-$329 cycle -$315	70% surv 53%	-$12,273 NOT cap gain +$9,897
Max even-money escape in the band	~$53	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$155 cycle +$169	69% surv 54%	-$11,822 NOT cap gain +$10,348
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$45/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $53 is $5 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,397
… as % of IC ($7,300)	46.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	7.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$-15,547

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $53.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $52.47	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $52-53.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $53.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$53.00 (4.3σ)	$14	$-11,944	+$10,226	-$21
+2.5%	$54.32 (4.7σ)	$-913	$-11,997	+$10,173	-$948
+5%	$55.65 (5.1σ)	$-1,841	$-12,050	+$10,120	-$1,876
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-2,191	$-12,115	+$10,055	-$2,121

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (7 × $53): -$3,397

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$547

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,701 (+$9,469 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,121, the opportunity cost of earning $140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $48

7 Aug

10d

27.8%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+5pp

$380

$1,140

-$1,660

$9,493

Sell 10 × $48 27.8% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.59 mid)

= $380 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$491

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$518/mo

median; plan ~$352/mo after 68% keep · $3,393 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,986

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 74% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.76/sh now → $3.37 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$59 cycle +$439 [-$440…+$618] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%	-$14,537 NOT cap gain +$7,633
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.36/sh	-$361 cycle +$19 [-$879…+$126] · 31% credit	74% surv 64%	-$13,637 NOT cap gain +$8,533
budget: banked $380 debit $361 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,746/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.36/sh	-$365 cycle +$15 [-$827…+$114] · 30% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,258 NOT cap gain +$6,912

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,019/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,493
… as % of IC ($7,300)	130.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,385

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $48.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.6σ)	$380	$-14,893	+$7,277	+$330
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.8σ)	$-820	$-15,301	+$6,869	-$870
+5%	$50.40 (2.0σ)	$-2,020	$-15,709	+$6,461	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,770	$-17,664	+$4,506	-$7,670

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$9,493

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,250 (+$3,920 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,670, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

8 × $48

31 Jul

27.8%

96%hist 100%

8%hist 1%

+5pp

$200

$2,000

-$800

$7,698

Sell 8 × $48 27.8% OTM over spot $37.55 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.36 mid)

= $200 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.36)

96%

EV / mo

+$1,605

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,113/mo

median; plan ~$757/mo after 68% keep · $4,734 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,807

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.31/sh now → $3.76 mid-life (likely $3.34–$6.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 167 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.46/sh	+$369 cycle +$569 [-$577…+$892] · 59% credit	69% surv 54%	-$14,727 NOT cap gain +$7,443
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.26/sh	-$204 cycle -$4 [-$1,034…+$258] · 40% credit	70% surv 53%	-$15,267 NOT cap gain +$6,903
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.24/sh	-$194 cycle +$6 [-$1,278…+$280] · 38% credit	73% surv 62%	-$13,970 NOT cap gain +$8,200
budget: banked $200 debit $194 (97% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,837/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-26%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	37% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,896/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,698
… as % of IC ($7,300)	105.5%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,824

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $48.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.36	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.36	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (2.9σ)	$200	$-15,063	+$7,107	+$160
+2.5%	$49.20 (3.3σ)	$-760	$-15,231	+$6,939	-$800
+5%	$50.40 (3.6σ)	$-1,720	$-15,399	+$6,771	-$1,760
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-6,320	$-16,234	+$5,936	-$6,240

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $48): -$7,698

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$365

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,820 (+$5,350 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,240, the opportunity cost of earning $2,000/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

8 × $47

31 Jul

25.2%

94%hist 100%

11%hist 5%

+12pp

$280

$2,800

—

$8,418

Sell 8 × $47 25.2% OTM over spot $37.55 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.40 mid)

= $280 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $47.40)

95%

EV / mo

+$2,180

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+12pp

52% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,459/mo

median; plan ~$992/mo after 68% keep · $6,939 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,665

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 73% POP

62% survival

Buyback gross: $5.20/sh now → $3.68 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 214 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$23 cycle +$303 [-$905…+$444] · 44% credit	69% surv 56%	-$15,323 NOT cap gain +$6,847
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.22/sh	-$173 cycle +$107 [-$890…+$216] · 40% credit	70% surv 53%	-$15,816 NOT cap gain +$6,354
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.20/sh	-$161 cycle +$119 [-$1,091…+$254] · 40% credit	73% surv 62%	-$14,517 NOT cap gain +$7,653
budget: banked $280 debit $161 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$119 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,796/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,696/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,418
… as % of IC ($7,300)	115.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,772

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $47.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.40	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.40	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (2.7σ)	$280	$-15,643	+$6,527	+$240
+2.5%	$48.17 (3.0σ)	$-660	$-15,807	+$6,363	-$700
+5%	$49.35 (3.3σ)	$-1,600	$-15,972	+$6,198	-$1,640
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-7,040	$-16,954	+$5,216	-$6,960

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $47): -$8,418

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$365

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,540 (+$4,630 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,960, the opportunity cost of earning $2,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $45

31 Jul

19.8%

90%hist 100%

21%hist 13%

+17pp

$590

$5,900

+$3,100

$12,283

Sell 10 × $45 19.8% OTM over spot $37.55 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.64 mid)

= $590 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $45.63)

92%

EV / mo

+$4,106

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+17pp

59% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,925/mo

median; plan ~$1,989/mo after 68% keep · $11,854 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.3], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,934

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 75% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.36–$6.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 374 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $2.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$26 cycle +$616 [-$1,436…+$425] · 42% credit	72% surv 60%	-$15,680 NOT cap gain +$6,490
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.14/sh	-$143 cycle +$447 [-$1,359…+$246] · 39% credit	70% surv 53%	-$16,806 NOT cap gain +$5,364
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.56/sh	-$559 cycle +$31 [-$2,179…-$204] · 17% credit	75% surv 66%	-$15,275 NOT cap gain +$6,895
budget: banked $590 debit $559 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,043/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,900/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+119%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,779/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,283
… as % of IC ($7,300)	168.3%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	26.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,215

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $45.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.63	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.63	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$590	$-16,663	+$5,507	+$540
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-535	$-17,045	+$5,125	-$585
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,660	$-17,428	+$4,742	-$1,710
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (5.2σ)	$-10,560	$-20,454	+$1,716	-$10,460

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$12,283

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,040 (+$1,130 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,460, the opportunity cost of earning $5,900/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $-195/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $44.50 (50% normal), 83% survival, breach 17%, $2,970/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 87% (breach 17% → 13%) for $1,170/mo less (39% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $37.55 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

5 × $54

7 Aug

10d

43.8%

98%hist 100%

5%hist 1%

+0pp

$45

$135

-$2,835

$1,891

Sell 5 × $54 43.8% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.23 mid)

= $45 credit for the 10d cycle → $135/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $54)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $54.23)

98%

EV / mo

+$83

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

36% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$23/mo

median; plan ~$16/mo after 68% keep · $115 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 36% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,849

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$55 @ 72% POP

59% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.79 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 114 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $56 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$54	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.26/sh	+$128 cycle +$173 [+$110…+$803] · 83% credit	69% surv 53%	-$11,148 NOT cap gain +$11,022
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$55	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.31/sh	-$155 cycle -$110 [-$217…+$444] · 62% credit	72% surv 59%	-$10,441 NOT cap gain +$11,729
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.64/sh	-$320 cycle -$275 [-$388…+$230] · 46% credit	67% surv 53%	-$11,563 NOT cap gain +$10,607

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$135/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-95%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$58/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $54 is $4 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,891
… as % of IC ($7,300)	25.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	4.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-11,155

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $54.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $53.46	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $53-54.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $54.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$54.00 (2.5σ)	$45	$-11,243	+$10,927	+$20
+2.5%	$55.35 (2.7σ)	$-630	$-11,027	+$11,143	-$655
+5%	$56.70 (2.9σ)	$-1,305	$-11,161	+$11,009	-$980

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $54): -$1,891

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$911

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,560 (+$10,610 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-980, the opportunity cost of earning $135/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $48

7 Aug

10d

27.8%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+5pp

$380

$1,140

-$1,830

$9,493

Sell 10 × $48 27.8% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.59 mid)

= $380 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,140/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $48.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$491

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$518/mo

median; plan ~$352/mo after 68% keep · $3,393 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,986

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 74% POP

64% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.06/sh	+$59 cycle +$439 [-$440…+$618] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%	-$14,537 NOT cap gain +$7,633
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.36/sh	-$361 cycle +$19 [-$879…+$126] · 31% credit	74% surv 64%	-$13,637 NOT cap gain +$8,533
budget: banked $380 debit $361 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,746/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.36/sh	-$365 cycle +$15 [-$827…+$114] · 30% credit	67% surv 53%	-$15,258 NOT cap gain +$6,912

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,140/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,019/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,493
… as % of IC ($7,300)	130.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,385

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (1.6σ)	$380	$-14,893	+$7,277	+$330
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.8σ)	$-820	$-15,301	+$6,869	-$870
+5%	$50.40 (2.0σ)	$-2,020	$-15,709	+$6,461	-$2,070
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,770	$-17,664	+$4,506	-$7,670

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$9,493

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,250 (+$3,920 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,670, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

8 × $46

7 Aug

10d

22.5%

87%hist 99%

27%hist 13%

+6pp

$600

$1,800

-$1,170

$8,898

Sell 8 × $46 22.5% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.91 mid)

= $600 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,800/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

87%

Breach risk

13%

POP (stays ≤ $46.91)

89%

EV / mo

+$896

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

46% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$820/mo

median; plan ~$558/mo after 68% keep · $5,141 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.4-4.4], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,981

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 76% POP

68% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.56/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.14–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 616 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$17 cycle +$617 [-$448…+$318] · 41% credit	72% surv 60%	-$15,009 NOT cap gain +$7,161
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.28/sh	-$227 cycle +$373 [-$673…+$43] · 26% credit	67% surv 53%	-$16,210 NOT cap gain +$5,960
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.74/sh	-$596 cycle +$4 [-$1,197…-$377] · 16% credit	76% surv 68%	-$14,302 NOT cap gain +$7,868
budget: banked $600 debit $596 (99% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 8 ct earn ≈ $3,135/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,696/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,898
… as % of IC ($7,300)	121.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	18.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-17,864

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $46.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.91	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.91	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.3σ)	$600	$-15,983	+$6,187	+$560
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.5σ)	$-320	$-16,144	+$6,026	-$360
+5%	$48.30 (1.7σ)	$-1,240	$-16,305	+$5,865	-$1,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-7,520	$-17,434	+$4,736	-$7,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $46): -$8,898

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$365

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,020 (+$4,150 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,440, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

10 × $44.50

7 Aug

10d

18.5%

83%hist 99%

36%hist 18%

+10pp

$990

$2,970

—

$12,383

Sell 10 × $44.50 18.5% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.16 mid)

= $990 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,970/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44.50)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $45.66)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,300

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

44% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,205/mo

median; plan ~$819/mo after 68% keep · $7,770 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,131

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 78% POP

71% survival

Buyback gross: $4.41/sh now → $3.12 mid-life (likely $3.23–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 783 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $46 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.07/sh	+$69 cycle +$1,059 [-$595…+$264] · 37% credit	72% surv 60%	-$15,567 NOT cap gain +$6,603
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.23/sh	-$227 cycle +$763 [-$854…-$56] · 23% credit	67% surv 54%	-$16,820 NOT cap gain +$5,350
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.94/sh	-$939 cycle +$51 [-$1,785…-$872] · 8% credit	78% surv 71%	-$14,595 NOT cap gain +$7,575
budget: banked $990 debit $939 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,444/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,970/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,849/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44.50 is $13 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,383
… as % of IC ($7,300)	169.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	26.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,340

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $45.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.50 (1.1σ)	$990	$-16,593	+$5,577	+$940
+2.5%	$45.61 (1.2σ)	$-122	$-16,971	+$5,199	-$172
+5%	$46.73 (1.4σ)	$-1,235	$-17,349	+$4,821	-$1,285
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-10,660	$-20,554	+$1,616	-$10,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44.50): -$12,383

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,140 (+$1,030 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,970/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $41

7 Aug

10d

9.2%

71%hist 96%

63%hist 51%

+17pp

$1,850

$5,550

+$2,580

$15,023

Sell 10 × $41 9.2% OTM over spot $37.55 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.00 mid)

= $1,850 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,550/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $43.01)

78%

EV / mo

+$1,743

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+17pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,725/mo

median; plan ~$1,173/mo after 68% keep · $10,467 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

50%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,025

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $3.38–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,498 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $43 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.06/sh	+$64 cycle +$1,914 [-$573…-$10] · 25% credit	70% surv 56%	-$17,682 NOT cap gain +$4,488
Max even-money escape in the band	~$43	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.01/sh	+$7 cycle +$1,857 [-$816…-$127] · 21% credit	74% surv 63%	-$16,749 NOT cap gain +$5,421
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.11/sh	-$107 cycle +$1,743 [-$867…-$222] · 17% credit	67% surv 54%	-$18,150 NOT cap gain +$4,020
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.80/sh	-$1,797 cycle +$53 [-$3,141…-$2,146]	86% surv 84%	-$14,263 NOT cap gain +$7,907
budget: banked $1,850 debit $1,797 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $1,702/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,550/mo
vs 50% target ($2,691/mo)	+106%
vs normal income ($5,382/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,429/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41 is $17 below CC-SS $57.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,023
… as % of IC ($7,300)	205.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	31.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-22,325

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $43.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $48.64 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.59	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-43.01	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $43.01	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.66 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,850	$-18,043	+$4,127	+$1,800
+2.5%	$42.02 (≤1σ, normal week)	$825	$-18,392	+$3,778	+$775
+5%	$43.05 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-200	$-18,740	+$3,430	-$250
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.9σ)	$-13,300	$-23,194	-$1,024	-$13,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,170

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,413

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $41): -$15,023

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,780 ($-1,610 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,580 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,200, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (59 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 59 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.660 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,413 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,580

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.35	8/10	$2,800	$2,696	94%	95%	+$2,180	-$8,418	115.3%	$-17,540 (vs do-nothing $-6,960)
$46.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.28	10/10	$2,800	$2,679	94%	94%	+$1,836	-$11,093	152.0%	$-19,850 (vs do-nothing $-9,270)
$46	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.37	8/10	$2,960	$2,856	93%	93%	+$2,006	-$9,202	126.1%	$-18,324 (vs do-nothing $-7,744)
$45.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.45	6/10	$2,700	$2,614	91%	93%	+$1,820	-$7,154	98.0%	$-16,640 (vs do-nothing $-6,060)
$45	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.59	5/10	$2,950	$2,873	90%	92%	+$2,053	-$6,141	84.1%	$-15,810 (vs do-nothing $-5,230)
$44.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.60	5/10	$3,000	$2,923	89%	91%	+$1,908	-$6,386	87.5%	$-16,055 (vs do-nothing $-5,475)
$44	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.72	4/10	$2,880	$2,812	87%	90%	+$1,823	-$5,261	72.1%	$-15,112 (vs do-nothing $-4,532)
$43.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.78	4/10	$3,120	$3,052	85%	89%	+$1,848	-$5,437	74.5%	$-15,288 (vs do-nothing $-4,708)
$43	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.89	4/10	$3,560	$3,492	84%	87%	+$2,037	-$5,593	76.6%	$-15,444 (vs do-nothing $-4,864)
$44.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.99	10/10	$2,970	$2,849	83%	86%	+$1,300	-$12,383	169.6%	$-21,140 (vs do-nothing $-10,560)
$44	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	9/10	$2,997	$2,885	82%	85%	+$1,293	-$11,487	157.4%	$-20,426 (vs do-nothing $-9,846)
$42.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.03	3/10	$3,090	$3,031	82%	86%	+$1,730	-$4,303	58.9%	$-14,336 (vs do-nothing $-3,756)
$43.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.22	8/10	$2,928	$2,824	80%	84%	+$1,215	-$10,522	144.1%	$-19,644 (vs do-nothing $-9,064)

Show 46 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.16	3/10	$3,480	$3,421	79%	84%	+$1,869	-$4,414	60.5%	$-14,447 (vs do-nothing $-3,867)
$43	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	7/10	$2,814	$2,719	78%	83%	+$1,124	-$9,473	129.8%	$-18,777 (vs do-nothing $-8,197)
$41.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.23	3/10	$3,690	$3,631	77%	83%	+$1,791	-$4,543	62.2%	$-14,576 (vs do-nothing $-3,996)
$42.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.43	7/10	$3,003	$2,908	77%	82%	+$1,102	-$9,760	133.7%	$-19,064 (vs do-nothing $-8,484)
$42	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.64	6/10	$2,952	$2,866	75%	81%	+$1,124	-$8,540	117.0%	$-18,026 (vs do-nothing $-7,446)
$41	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.41	2/10	$2,820	$2,769	74%	82%	+$1,336	-$3,093	42.4%	$-13,308 (vs do-nothing $-2,728)
$42	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.85	9/10	$2,938	$2,826	73%	80%	+$851	-$12,621	172.9%	$-21,560 (vs do-nothing $-10,980)
$41.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.69	6/10	$3,042	$2,956	73%	80%	+$996	-$8,810	120.7%	$-18,296 (vs do-nothing $-7,716)
$40.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.56	2/10	$3,120	$3,069	72%	80%	+$1,390	-$3,163	43.3%	$-13,378 (vs do-nothing $-2,798)
$42	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.31	10/10	$2,888	$2,766	72%	79%	+$897	-$13,563	185.8%	$-22,320 (vs do-nothing $-11,740)
$41.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.93	8/10	$2,725	$2,621	71%	78%	+$692	-$11,554	158.3%	$-20,676 (vs do-nothing $-10,096)
$41	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	5/10	$2,775	$2,698	71%	78%	+$871	-$7,511	102.9%	$-17,180 (vs do-nothing $-6,600)
$41.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.43	9/10	$2,734	$2,621	70%	78%	+$791	-$12,549	171.9%	$-21,488 (vs do-nothing $-10,908)
$41	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.01	8/10	$2,838	$2,734	69%	77%	+$606	-$11,890	162.9%	$-21,012 (vs do-nothing $-10,432)
$40	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.72	2/10	$3,440	$3,389	69%	79%	+$1,433	-$3,231	44.3%	$-13,446 (vs do-nothing $-2,866)
$40.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.84	5/10	$2,760	$2,683	68%	77%	+$641	-$7,766	106.4%	$-17,435 (vs do-nothing $-6,855)
$41	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.55	9/10	$2,869	$2,756	68%	78%	+$763	-$12,891	176.6%	$-21,830 (vs do-nothing $-11,250)
$40.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.94	8/10	$2,739	$2,635	67%	76%	+$294	-$12,346	169.1%	$-21,468 (vs do-nothing $-10,888)
$40.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.73	8/10	$2,730	$2,626	67%	77%	+$703	-$11,714	160.5%	$-20,836 (vs do-nothing $-10,256)
$40	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.19	5/10	$3,285	$3,208	66%	77%	+$931	-$7,841	107.4%	$-17,510 (vs do-nothing $-6,930)
$39.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.86	2/10	$3,720	$3,669	66%	77%	+$1,403	-$3,303	45.2%	$-13,518 (vs do-nothing $-2,938)
$40	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.65	6/10	$2,806	$2,720	65%	76%	+$801	-$9,134	125.1%	$-18,620 (vs do-nothing $-8,040)
$39.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	4/10	$2,856	$2,788	65%	77%	+$1,158	-$6,397	87.6%	$-16,248 (vs do-nothing $-5,668)
$40	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/10	$3,000	$2,896	65%	75%	+$807	-$11,898	163.0%	$-21,020 (vs do-nothing $-10,440)
$39.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.57	6/10	$2,721	$2,635	63%	74%	+$531	-$9,482	129.9%	$-18,968 (vs do-nothing $-8,388)
$39.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.15	7/10	$2,756	$2,662	63%	74%	+$683	-$10,656	146.0%	$-19,960 (vs do-nothing $-9,380)
$39	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.08	2/10	$4,160	$4,109	63%	76%	+$1,498	-$3,359	46.0%	$-13,574 (vs do-nothing $-2,994)
$39	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.57	4/10	$3,084	$3,016	62%	77%	+$1,173	-$6,521	89.3%	$-16,372 (vs do-nothing $-5,792)
$39	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	6/10	$3,229	$3,144	61%	74%	+$842	-$9,494	130.1%	$-18,980 (vs do-nothing $-8,400)
$39	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	7/10	$2,888	$2,793	61%	74%	+$650	-$10,901	149.3%	$-20,205 (vs do-nothing $-9,625)
$38.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.31	2/10	$4,620	$4,569	59%	74%	+$1,577	-$3,413	46.7%	$-13,628 (vs do-nothing $-3,048)
$38.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.79	4/10	$3,348	$3,280	59%	75%	+$1,205	-$6,633	90.9%	$-16,484 (vs do-nothing $-5,904)
$38.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/10	$2,800	$2,705	59%	72%	+$387	-$11,321	155.1%	$-20,625 (vs do-nothing $-10,045)
$38.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$2,735	$2,658	59%	73%	+$570	-$8,136	111.5%	$-17,805 (vs do-nothing $-7,225)
$38	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.40	7/10	$2,975	$2,880	57%	72%	+$377	-$11,531	158.0%	$-20,835 (vs do-nothing $-10,255)
$38	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.35	5/10	$2,956	$2,879	57%	72%	+$604	-$8,261	113.2%	$-17,930 (vs do-nothing $-7,350)
$38	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.05	3/10	$2,745	$2,686	56%	74%	+$948	-$5,047	69.1%	$-15,080 (vs do-nothing $-4,500)
$38	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.60	2/10	$5,200	$5,149	56%	73%	+$1,738	-$3,455	47.3%	$-13,670 (vs do-nothing $-3,090)
$37.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.85	6/10	$2,888	$2,802	55%	72%	+$492	-$9,914	135.8%	$-19,400 (vs do-nothing $-8,820)
$37.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/10	$2,735	$2,658	54%	71%	+$185	-$8,636	118.3%	$-18,305 (vs do-nothing $-7,725)
$37.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	3/10	$2,970	$2,911	54%	71%	+$671	-$5,122	70.2%	$-15,155 (vs do-nothing $-4,575)
$37.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.93	2/10	$3,860	$3,809	53%	72%	$-60	-$3,689	50.5%	$-13,904 (vs do-nothing $-3,324)
$37	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.15	6/10	$3,112	$3,027	53%	70%	+$539	-$10,034	137.4%	$-19,520 (vs do-nothing $-8,940)
$37	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.80	5/10	$3,353	$3,276	52%	70%	+$591	-$8,536	116.9%	$-18,205 (vs do-nothing $-7,625)
$37	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	3/10	$3,060	$3,001	51%	69%	+$544	-$5,242	71.8%	$-15,275 (vs do-nothing $-4,695)
$37	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.95	1/10	$2,950	$2,908	49%	70%	+$741	-$1,792	24.6%	$-12,190 (vs do-nothing $-1,610)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 12:24