FORTRESS FIGHT: ENPH @ $36.53

BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.88 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ENPH @ $36.53 UNDERWATER $19.62 (34.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

ENPH reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.88 (banked floor $56.89) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.717/sh)

SP: $60 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $22.672/sh)

HP: $20 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.247/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,300	(ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000
Normal income ref	$4,059/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$502/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-24,330	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,029/mo

HEDGE COVER
$502/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,059/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $7,300

ML VELOCITY
11.7 mo to earn back $47,300

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $58.88 (probe: $56C 17d) brings only $35/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,164

Hole (after banked)

$22,166

was $24,330 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$58.88 → $56.89

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B 10 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.11 (+78%) · daily UBB $47.72 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 7 contracts at $45 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 91%, breach 9%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,029/mo); it brings $2,240/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $43.50/3d for $4,300/mo, but breach risk rises to 12% (+4pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 9 × $47.50/3d (96% survival, $540/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $9,492 (130% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 2.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 7 contracts realizes $-17,080 and cuts bleed by $351/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 7 × $45, 91% survival, $2,240/mo (E[net] $458/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 3d	7 × $45	91%	$2,240	$458
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 10d	9 × $44	85%	$2,052	$-305

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $224 with probability 90%; on the 10% touch you roll, paying $1,941 to close and taking $468 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,473) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $458/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 7 × $45 (50% normal), 91% survival, breach 9%, $2,240/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 93% (breach 9% → 7%) for $800/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $36.53 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

9 × $47.50

31 Jul

30.0%

96%hist 100%

9%hist 1%

+1pp

$54

$540

-$1,700

$10,188

Sell 9 × $47.50 30.0% OTM over spot $36.53 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid)

= $54 credit for the 3d cycle → $540/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $47.50)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $47.72)

96%

EV / mo

$-27

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

58% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-139/mo

median; plan ~$-95/mo after 68% keep · $-406 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,580

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 71% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.14/sh now → $2.93 mid-life (likely $2.55–$5.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 180 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$475 cycle +$529 [-$470…+$1,038] · 62% credit	69% surv 60%	-$9,991 NOT cap gain +$14,339
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.10/sh	+$92 cycle +$146 [-$361…+$677] · 61% credit	68% surv 53%	-$12,005 NOT cap gain +$12,325
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.12/sh	+$109 cycle +$163 [-$957…+$640] · 54% credit	71% surv 63%	-$9,247 NOT cap gain +$15,083
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$540/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-73%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$42/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,188
… as % of IC ($7,300)	139.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-22,041

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $47.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.50 (2.8σ)	$54	$-12,097	+$12,233	+$36
+2.5%	$48.69 (3.1σ)	$-1,015	$-11,848	+$12,482	-$1,033
+5%	$49.88 (3.4σ)	$-2,084	$-11,599	+$12,731	-$2,102
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-7,731	$-10,296	+$14,034	-$7,614

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $47.50): -$10,188

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$286

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,996 (+$14,334 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,614, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

9 × $46

31 Jul

25.9%

93%hist 100%

14%hist 5%

+3pp

$144

$1,440

-$800

$11,448

Sell 9 × $46 25.9% OTM over spot $36.53 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.32 mid)

= $144 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,440/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $46.31)

94%

EV / mo

+$451

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$347/mo

median; plan ~$236/mo after 68% keep · $560 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-3.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,407

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 73% POP

66% survival

Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $2.66–$5.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 254 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.65/sh	+$587 cycle +$731 [-$542…+$938] · 61% credit	68% surv 58%	-$12,009 NOT cap gain +$12,321
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$129 cycle +$273 [-$518…+$484] · 56% credit	68% surv 53%	-$13,543 NOT cap gain +$10,787
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$136 cycle +$280 [-$1,124…+$467] · 44% credit	71% surv 63%	-$10,794 NOT cap gain +$13,536
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.07/sh	-$67 cycle +$77 [-$1,384…+$258] · 36% credit	73% surv 66%	-$9,888 NOT cap gain +$14,442
budget: banked $144 debit $67 (47% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$77 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,387/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,440/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$942/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,448
… as % of IC ($7,300)	156.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	24.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-22,036

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $46.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (2.4σ)	$144	$-13,672	+$10,658	+$126
+2.5%	$47.15 (2.7σ)	$-891	$-13,431	+$10,899	-$909
+5%	$48.30 (3.0σ)	$-1,926	$-13,189	+$11,141	-$1,944
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-8,991	$-11,556	+$12,774	-$8,874

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $46): -$11,448

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$286

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,256 (+$13,074 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,874, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

7 × $45

31 Jul

23.2%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+4pp

$224

$2,240

—

$9,492

Sell 7 × $45 23.2% OTM over spot $36.53 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid)

= $224 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,240/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $45.39)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,135

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

58% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$674/mo

median; plan ~$458/mo after 68% keep · $1,355 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,717

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 73% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.92/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.70–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 315 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (7 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.67/sh	+$468 cycle +$692 [-$468…+$699] · 62% credit	68% surv 58%	-$13,154 NOT cap gain +$11,176
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$118 cycle +$342 [-$448…+$370] · 51% credit	68% surv 53%	-$14,580 NOT cap gain +$9,750
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$119 cycle +$343 [-$912…+$336] · 41% credit	71% surv 63%	-$11,838 NOT cap gain +$12,492
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$39 cycle +$185 [-$1,115…+$166] · 35% credit	73% surv 66%	-$10,886 NOT cap gain +$13,444
budget: banked $224 debit $39 (17% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 7 ct earn ≈ $2,593/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,240/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,749/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,492
… as % of IC ($7,300)	130.0%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	20.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (7 ct)	$-17,080

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $45.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$224	$-14,698	+$9,632	+$210
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-563	$-14,237	+$10,093	-$577
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,351	$-13,776	+$10,554	-$1,365
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-7,581	$-10,172	+$14,158	-$7,490

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (7 × $45): -$9,492

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$858

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,872 (+$14,458 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,490, the opportunity cost of earning $2,240/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $45

31 Jul

23.2%

91%hist 100%

18%hist 5%

+5pp

$320

$3,200

+$960

$13,560

Sell 10 × $45 23.2% OTM over spot $36.53 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid)

= $320 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $45.39)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,622

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,071/mo

median; plan ~$728/mo after 68% keep · $3,296 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,452

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 73% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.92/sh now → $2.77 mid-life (likely $2.62–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.57/sh	+$570 cycle +$890 [-$441…+$918] · 62% credit	69% surv 60%	-$12,406 NOT cap gain +$11,924
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.17/sh	+$169 cycle +$489 [-$415…+$555] · 57% credit	68% surv 53%	-$14,439 NOT cap gain +$9,891
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.17/sh	+$170 cycle +$490 [-$972…+$503] · 47% credit	71% surv 63%	-$11,697 NOT cap gain +$12,633
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.06/sh	-$56 cycle +$264 [-$1,265…+$263] · 39% credit	73% surv 66%	-$10,812 NOT cap gain +$13,518
budget: banked $320 debit $56 (17% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$264 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,705/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,200/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+58%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	79% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,698/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,560
… as % of IC ($7,300)	185.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	28.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.3 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,400

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.39	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.39	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (2.1σ)	$320	$-14,608	+$9,722	+$300
+2.5%	$46.12 (2.4σ)	$-805	$-14,485	+$9,845	-$825
+5%	$47.25 (2.7σ)	$-1,930	$-14,361	+$9,969	-$1,950
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-10,830	$-13,382	+$10,948	-$10,700

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$13,560

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,082 (+$11,248 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,700, the opportunity cost of earning $3,200/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $43.50

31 Jul

19.1%

88%hist 99%

26%hist 13%

+6pp

$430

$4,300

+$2,060

$14,950

Sell 10 × $43.50 19.1% OTM over spot $36.53 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.59 mid)

= $430 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,300/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $43.50)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $44.09)

89%

EV / mo

+$1,636

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 55% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,564/mo

median; plan ~$1,064/mo after 68% keep · $3,914 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.3], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,250

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 74% POP

69% survival

Buyback gross: $3.79/sh now → $2.68 mid-life (likely $2.59–$4.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$44	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.69/sh	+$690 cycle +$1,120 [-$428…+$1,001] · 61% credit	69% surv 59%	-$14,397 NOT cap gain +$9,933
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$206 cycle +$636 [-$529…+$554] · 52% credit	68% surv 53%	-$15,958 NOT cap gain +$8,372
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.19/sh	+$195 cycle +$625 [-$1,020…+$478] · 40% credit	71% surv 63%	-$13,227 NOT cap gain +$11,103
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.42/sh	-$425 cycle +$5 [-$1,806…-$187] · 18% credit	74% surv 69%	-$11,627 NOT cap gain +$12,703
budget: banked $430 debit $425 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,075/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,300/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+112%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	106% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,798/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,950
… as % of IC ($7,300)	204.8%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	31.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,495

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $44.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.06	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $43-44.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$43.50 (1.8σ)	$430	$-16,163	+$8,167	+$410
+2.5%	$44.59 (2.0σ)	$-657	$-16,044	+$8,286	-$677
+5%	$45.68 (2.3σ)	$-1,745	$-15,924	+$8,406	-$1,765
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (4.9σ)	$-12,220	$-14,772	+$9,558	-$12,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $43.50): -$14,950

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,472 (+$9,858 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,090, the opportunity cost of earning $4,300/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on ENPH are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $-305/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 9 × $44 (50% normal), 85% survival, breach 15%, $2,052/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $46 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 90% (breach 15% → 10%) for $582/mo less (28% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

ENPH spot $36.53 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

8 × $49

7 Aug

10d

34.1%

94%hist 100%

12%hist 5%

+2pp

$176

$528

-$1,524

$7,728

Sell 8 × $49 34.1% OTM over spot $36.53 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.37 mid)

= $176 credit for the 10d cycle → $528/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $49.37)

95%

EV / mo

+$255

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

50% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-150/mo

median; plan ~$-102/mo after 68% keep · $-1,023 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.0-4.3], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,620

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 67% POP

56% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.94/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $2.86–$5.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (8 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$49	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.00/sh	+$4 cycle +$180 [-$492…+$591] · 53% credit	67% surv 56%	-$9,783 NOT cap gain +$14,547
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$1.19/sh	-$954 cycle -$778 [-$1,465…-$382] · 14% credit	64% surv 53%	-$11,263 NOT cap gain +$13,067

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$528/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-74%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	13% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$33/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $49 is $10 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,728
… as % of IC ($7,300)	105.9%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.9 mo
Surgical close (8 ct)	$-19,584

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $49.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $48.51	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-49.37	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $49.37	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.00 (1.7σ)	$176	$-10,308	+$14,022	+$160
+2.5%	$50.22 (1.9σ)	$-804	$-9,929	+$14,401	-$820
+5%	$51.45 (2.1σ)	$-1,784	$-9,549	+$14,781	-$1,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-5,544	$-8,122	+$16,208	-$5,440

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (8 × $49): -$7,728

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$572

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,822 (+$16,508 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,440, the opportunity cost of earning $528/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

10 × $46.50

7 Aug

10d

27.3%

91%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

+4pp

$430

$1,290

-$762

$11,950

Sell 10 × $46.50 27.3% OTM over spot $36.53 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.60 mid)

= $430 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,290/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46.50)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $47.10)

92%

EV / mo

+$575

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$217/mo

median; plan ~$148/mo after 68% keep · $757 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-4.0], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,887

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 69% POP

60% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $2.75–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 417 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.09/sh	+$86 cycle +$516 [-$556…+$707] · 51% credit	67% surv 57%	-$12,226 NOT cap gain +$12,104
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.22/sh	-$223 cycle +$207 [-$902…+$354] · 35% credit	69% surv 60%	-$11,425 NOT cap gain +$12,905
budget: banked $430 debit $223 (52% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$207 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,885/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$1.07/sh	-$1,066 cycle -$636 [-$1,724…-$463] · 12% credit	64% surv 53%	-$13,900 NOT cap gain +$10,430

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,290/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-36%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$788/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,950
… as % of IC ($7,300)	163.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	25.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,505

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $47.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-47.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.50 (1.4σ)	$430	$-12,833	+$11,497	+$410
+2.5%	$47.66 (1.5σ)	$-732	$-12,705	+$11,625	-$752
+5%	$48.83 (1.7σ)	$-1,895	$-12,578	+$11,752	-$1,915
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-9,220	$-11,772	+$12,558	-$9,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46.50): -$11,950

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,472 (+$12,858 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,090, the opportunity cost of earning $1,290/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

10 × $46

7 Aug

10d

25.9%

90%hist 99%

22%hist 13%

+4pp

$490

$1,470

-$582

$12,390

Sell 10 × $46 25.9% OTM over spot $36.53 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.67 mid)

= $490 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,470/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $46)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $46.66)

91%

EV / mo

+$648

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$326/mo

median; plan ~$222/mo after 68% keep · $1,177 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [0.9-4.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,792

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$48 @ 70% POP

62% survival

Buyback gross: $4.64/sh now → $3.28 mid-life (likely $2.89–$4.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $48 (overshoots $1.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.10/sh	+$101 cycle +$591 [-$525…+$611] · 45% credit	67% surv 57%	-$12,706 NOT cap gain +$11,624
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.49/sh	-$486 cycle +$4 [-$1,217…-$11] · 25% credit	70% surv 62%	-$11,627 NOT cap gain +$12,703
budget: banked $490 debit $486 (99% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,415/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$46	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$1.04/sh	-$1,042 cycle -$552 [-$1,678…-$549] · 13% credit	64% surv 53%	-$14,370 NOT cap gain +$9,960

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,470/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$968/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,390
… as % of IC ($7,300)	169.7%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	26.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,505

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $46.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $45.54	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $46-46.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $46.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$46.00 (1.3σ)	$490	$-13,328	+$11,002	+$470
+2.5%	$47.15 (1.5σ)	$-660	$-13,202	+$11,128	-$680
+5%	$48.30 (1.6σ)	$-1,810	$-13,075	+$11,255	-$1,830
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-9,660	$-12,212	+$12,118	-$9,530

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $46): -$12,390

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,912 (+$12,418 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,530, the opportunity cost of earning $1,470/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

9 × $44

7 Aug

10d

20.4%

85%hist 99%

32%hist 18%

+6pp

$684

$2,052

—

$12,708

Sell 9 × $44 20.4% OTM over spot $36.53 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.96 mid)

= $684 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,052/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $44.97)

87%

EV / mo

+$789

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

51% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$488/mo

median; plan ~$332/mo after 68% keep · $1,936 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,141

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$46 @ 71% POP

63% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $3.05–$4.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 700 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $46 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (9 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.16/sh	+$142 cycle +$826 [-$577…+$345] · 40% credit	67% surv 57%	-$14,689 NOT cap gain +$9,641
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.54/sh	-$484 cycle +$200 [-$1,311…-$325] · 15% credit	71% surv 63%	-$13,094 NOT cap gain +$11,236
budget: banked $684 debit $484 (71% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$200 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,697/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.95/sh	-$852 cycle -$168 [-$1,589…-$655] · 7% credit	64% surv 53%	-$16,204 NOT cap gain +$8,126

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,052/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,554/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,708
… as % of IC ($7,300)	174.1%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	26.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.1 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)	$-22,082

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $44.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-44.97	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.97	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (1.0σ)	$684	$-15,352	+$8,978	+$666
+2.5%	$45.10 (1.2σ)	$-306	$-15,121	+$9,209	-$324
+5%	$46.20 (1.3σ)	$-1,296	$-14,890	+$9,440	-$1,314
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-10,251	$-12,816	+$11,514	-$10,134

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $44): -$12,708

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$286

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,516 (+$11,814 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,134, the opportunity cost of earning $2,052/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

10 × $40.50

7 Aug

10d

10.9%

73%hist 96%

57%hist 43%

+5pp

$1,400

$4,200

+$2,148

$16,980

Sell 10 × $40.50 10.9% OTM over spot $36.53 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.67 mid)

= $1,400 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $40.50)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $42.17)

79%

EV / mo

+$944

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

53% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$981/mo

median; plan ~$667/mo after 68% keep · $4,459 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.1], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

45%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,489

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$46 @ 77% POP

73% survival

Buyback gross: $4.08/sh now → $2.89 mid-life (likely $3.42–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,338 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $42 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.04/sh	+$40 cycle +$1,440 [-$960…-$199] · 19% credit	68% surv 59%	-$17,406 NOT cap gain +$6,924
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	12d left	-$0.79/sh	-$791 cycle +$609 [-$1,778…-$1,028] · 5% credit	64% surv 54%	-$19,314 NOT cap gain +$5,016
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.29/sh	-$1,291 cycle +$109 [-$2,566…-$1,635] · 1% credit	77% surv 73%	-$13,742 NOT cap gain +$10,588
budget: banked $1,400 debit $1,291 (92% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$109 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,524/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($2,029/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($4,059/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,698/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $40.50 is $18 below CC-SS $58.88: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,980
… as % of IC ($7,300)	232.6%
… as % of ML ($47,300)	35.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.2 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-24,605

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $42.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.72 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $40-42.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $42.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$40.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,400	$-18,523	+$5,807	+$1,380
+2.5%	$41.51 (≤1σ, normal week)	$388	$-18,412	+$5,918	+$368
+5%	$42.52 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-625	$-18,301	+$6,029	-$645
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.15 (2.7σ)	$-14,250	$-16,802	+$7,528	-$14,120

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.88, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,330

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,808

− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $40.50): -$16,980

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,502 (+$7,828 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,382 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,120, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (64 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 64 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.110 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,808 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,382

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$45	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.32	7/10	$2,240	$1,749	91%	92%	+$1,135	-$9,492	130.0%	$-9,872 (vs do-nothing $-7,490)
$44.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.30	7/10	$2,100	$1,609	90%	91%	+$781	-$9,856	135.0%	$-10,236 (vs do-nothing $-7,854)
$44	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.37	6/10	$2,220	$1,732	89%	90%	+$874	-$8,706	119.3%	$-9,372 (vs do-nothing $-6,990)
$43.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.43	5/10	$2,150	$1,666	88%	89%	+$818	-$7,475	102.4%	$-8,427 (vs do-nothing $-6,045)
$43	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.51	4/10	$2,040	$1,559	86%	88%	+$779	-$6,148	84.2%	$-7,386 (vs do-nothing $-5,004)
$44	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.76	9/10	$2,052	$1,554	85%	87%	+$789	-$12,708	174.1%	$-12,516 (vs do-nothing $-10,134)
$42.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.60	4/10	$2,400	$1,919	85%	87%	+$911	-$6,312	86.5%	$-7,550 (vs do-nothing $-5,168)
$43.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.81	9/10	$2,187	$1,689	84%	86%	+$752	-$13,113	179.6%	$-12,921 (vs do-nothing $-10,539)
$42	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.70	3/10	$2,100	$1,623	83%	86%	+$787	-$4,854	66.5%	$-6,378 (vs do-nothing $-3,996)
$43	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.85	8/10	$2,040	$1,545	82%	85%	+$595	-$12,024	164.7%	$-12,118 (vs do-nothing $-9,736)
$41.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.79	3/10	$2,370	$1,893	81%	85%	+$831	-$4,977	68.2%	$-6,501 (vs do-nothing $-4,119)
$42.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.86	8/10	$2,064	$1,569	80%	84%	+$430	-$12,416	170.1%	$-12,510 (vs do-nothing $-10,128)
$42	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.85	8/10	$2,040	$1,545	79%	83%	+$218	-$12,824	175.7%	$-12,918 (vs do-nothing $-10,536)

Show 51 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$41	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.90	3/10	$2,700	$2,223	79%	83%	+$903	-$5,094	69.8%	$-6,618 (vs do-nothing $-4,236)
$42.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.23	10/10	$2,171	$1,669	78%	83%	+$555	-$15,150	207.5%	$-14,672 (vs do-nothing $-12,290)
$41.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.12	7/10	$2,352	$1,861	77%	82%	+$538	-$11,382	155.9%	$-11,762 (vs do-nothing $-9,380)
$42	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.36	9/10	$2,160	$1,662	77%	82%	+$549	-$13,968	191.3%	$-13,776 (vs do-nothing $-11,394)
$40.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.03	2/10	$2,060	$1,586	76%	82%	+$667	-$3,470	47.5%	$-5,280 (vs do-nothing $-2,898)
$41.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.30	9/10	$2,065	$1,566	75%	81%	+$283	-$14,472	198.2%	$-14,280 (vs do-nothing $-11,898)
$41	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.26	6/10	$2,268	$1,780	75%	81%	+$523	-$9,972	136.6%	$-10,638 (vs do-nothing $-8,256)
$42.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.63	10/10	$2,037	$1,536	74%	78%	$-206	-$14,750	202.0%	$-14,272 (vs do-nothing $-11,890)
$40	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.16	2/10	$2,320	$1,846	74%	80%	+$706	-$3,544	48.5%	$-5,354 (vs do-nothing $-2,972)
$41	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.64	8/10	$2,315	$1,820	73%	80%	+$567	-$12,992	178.0%	$-13,086 (vs do-nothing $-10,704)
$40.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.40	5/10	$2,100	$1,616	73%	79%	+$472	-$8,490	116.3%	$-9,442 (vs do-nothing $-7,060)
$42	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.76	10/10	$2,200	$1,698	73%	78%	$-197	-$15,120	207.1%	$-14,642 (vs do-nothing $-12,260)
$41.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.89	9/10	$2,126	$1,628	72%	77%	$-178	-$13,941	191.0%	$-13,749 (vs do-nothing $-11,367)
$39.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.24	2/10	$2,480	$2,006	71%	79%	+$617	-$3,628	49.7%	$-5,438 (vs do-nothing $-3,056)
$40	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.55	5/10	$2,325	$1,841	71%	79%	+$506	-$8,665	118.7%	$-9,617 (vs do-nothing $-7,235)
$41	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.03	8/10	$2,030	$1,535	70%	76%	$-156	-$12,680	173.7%	$-12,774 (vs do-nothing $-10,392)
$40.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.60	8/10	$2,259	$1,764	70%	76%	$-220	-$13,424	183.9%	$-13,518 (vs do-nothing $-11,136)
$39.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.72	4/10	$2,064	$1,583	69%	77%	+$442	-$7,064	96.8%	$-8,302 (vs do-nothing $-5,920)
$40.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.04	8/10	$2,040	$1,545	69%	75%	$-292	-$13,072	179.1%	$-13,166 (vs do-nothing $-10,784)
$39	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.41	2/10	$2,820	$2,346	69%	78%	+$679	-$3,694	50.6%	$-5,504 (vs do-nothing $-3,122)
$40	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.80	7/10	$2,224	$1,732	68%	75%	$-126	-$11,956	163.8%	$-12,336 (vs do-nothing $-9,954)
$40	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.40	7/10	$2,100	$1,609	67%	74%	$-75	-$11,536	158.0%	$-11,916 (vs do-nothing $-9,534)
$39.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.98	6/10	$2,096	$1,609	67%	74%	$-82	-$10,440	143.0%	$-11,106 (vs do-nothing $-8,724)
$39	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	5/10	$2,475	$1,991	67%	75%	+$221	-$9,115	124.9%	$-10,067 (vs do-nothing $-7,685)
$39.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.39	7/10	$2,091	$1,600	66%	74%	$-226	-$11,893	162.9%	$-12,273 (vs do-nothing $-9,891)
$38.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.57	2/10	$3,140	$2,666	66%	76%	+$689	-$3,762	51.5%	$-5,572 (vs do-nothing $-3,190)
$39	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.17	6/10	$2,298	$1,810	66%	76%	+$383	-$10,626	145.6%	$-11,292 (vs do-nothing $-8,910)
$39	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.62	7/10	$2,293	$1,801	64%	73%	$-175	-$12,082	165.5%	$-12,462 (vs do-nothing $-10,080)
$38.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.98	4/10	$2,376	$1,895	64%	75%	+$375	-$7,360	100.8%	$-8,598 (vs do-nothing $-6,216)
$38.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.34	5/10	$2,065	$1,580	64%	74%	+$318	-$9,020	123.6%	$-9,972 (vs do-nothing $-7,590)
$38.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.73	6/10	$2,048	$1,560	63%	72%	$-203	-$10,590	145.1%	$-11,256 (vs do-nothing $-8,874)
$38	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.69	2/10	$3,380	$2,906	63%	74%	+$587	-$3,838	52.6%	$-5,648 (vs do-nothing $-3,266)
$38	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.16	4/10	$2,592	$2,111	62%	73%	+$376	-$7,488	102.6%	$-8,726 (vs do-nothing $-6,344)
$38	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.55	5/10	$2,250	$1,766	61%	73%	+$341	-$9,165	125.5%	$-10,117 (vs do-nothing $-7,735)
$38	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	6/10	$2,250	$1,762	61%	71%	$-143	-$10,728	147.0%	$-11,394 (vs do-nothing $-9,012)
$37.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.87	2/10	$3,740	$3,266	60%	72%	+$570	-$3,902	53.5%	$-5,712 (vs do-nothing $-3,330)
$37.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.10	6/10	$2,325	$1,837	59%	70%	$-217	-$10,968	150.2%	$-11,634 (vs do-nothing $-9,252)
$37.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	3/10	$2,142	$1,665	59%	72%	+$306	-$5,700	78.1%	$-7,224 (vs do-nothing $-4,842)
$37.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.75	5/10	$2,426	$1,942	59%	72%	+$345	-$9,315	127.6%	$-10,267 (vs do-nothing $-7,885)
$37	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	5/10	$2,062	$1,578	58%	69%	$-187	-$9,290	127.3%	$-10,242 (vs do-nothing $-7,860)
$37	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.65	5/10	$2,338	$1,854	57%	71%	+$71	-$9,615	131.7%	$-10,567 (vs do-nothing $-8,185)
$37	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.58	3/10	$2,322	$1,845	57%	71%	+$299	-$5,790	79.3%	$-7,314 (vs do-nothing $-4,932)
$37	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.06	1/10	$2,060	$1,590	56%	71%	+$268	-$1,982	27.2%	$-4,078 (vs do-nothing $-1,696)
$36.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.55	5/10	$2,219	$1,734	56%	69%	$-168	-$9,415	129.0%	$-10,367 (vs do-nothing $-7,985)
$36.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.33	5/10	$2,056	$1,572	54%	69%	$-408	-$10,025	137.3%	$-10,977 (vs do-nothing $-8,595)
$36	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.75	5/10	$2,344	$1,859	54%	68%	$-186	-$9,565	131.0%	$-10,517 (vs do-nothing $-8,135)
$36.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.82	3/10	$2,538	$2,061	54%	70%	+$313	-$5,868	80.4%	$-7,392 (vs do-nothing $-5,010)
$36.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.28	1/10	$2,280	$1,810	53%	70%	+$263	-$2,010	27.5%	$-4,106 (vs do-nothing $-1,724)
$36	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.10	4/10	$2,188	$1,707	52%	69%	+$49	-$7,912	108.4%	$-9,150 (vs do-nothing $-6,768)
$36	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.57	3/10	$2,313	$1,836	51%	68%	$-128	-$6,093	83.5%	$-7,617 (vs do-nothing $-5,235)
$36	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.52	1/10	$2,520	$2,050	50%	69%	+$259	-$2,036	27.9%	$-4,132 (vs do-nothing $-1,750)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 21:35