10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.30 (banked floor $56.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,238/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $159/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,380 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 7 × $43 | 97% | $2,205 | $788 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 9 × $41.50 | 76% | $2,280 | $-1,252 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $51 | 31 Jul | 2d | 35.0% | 99+%hist 100% | 0%hist 1% | -0pp | $12 | $180 | -$2,025 | $4,370 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $51 35.0% OTM over spot $37.78 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.06 mid) = $12 credit for the 2d cycle → $180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $51.06) 99+% EV / mo +$180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-150/mo median; plan ~$-102/mo after 68% keep · $-1,349 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,220 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.05 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $51.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $51): -$4,370 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,184 (+$17,196 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,394, the opportunity cost of earning $180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $45 | 31 Jul | 2d | 19.1% | 99%hist 100% | 1%hist 1% | +1pp | $99 | $1,485 | -$720 | $11,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $45 19.1% OTM over spot $37.78 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $99 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,485/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $45.15) 99% EV / mo +$1,465 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $21/mo median; plan ~$14/mo after 68% keep · $96 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,532 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $49 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.56/sh now → $1.81 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 114 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $45.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $45): -$11,875 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$329 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,700 (+$10,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,910, the opportunity cost of earning $1,485/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $43 | 31 Jul | 2d | 13.8% | 97%hist 100% | 7%hist 1% | +3pp | $147 | $2,205 | — | $10,566 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $43 13.8% OTM over spot $37.78 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $147 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $43.28) 97% EV / mo +$2,053 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $489/mo median; plan ~$333/mo after 68% keep · $2,570 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,065 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $43.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $43): -$10,566 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$988 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,050 (+$11,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,260, the opportunity cost of earning $2,205/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $42 | 31 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 94%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | +9pp | $297 | $4,455 | +$2,250 | $14,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $42 11.2% OTM over spot $37.78 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $297 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,455/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $42.41) 95% EV / mo +$3,920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,532/mo median; plan ~$1,041/mo after 68% keep · $6,830 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,225 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 421 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $44 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $16 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $42.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $42): -$14,377 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$329 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,202 (+$8,178 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,412, the opportunity cost of earning $4,455/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $42 | 31 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 94%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | +12pp | $330 | $4,950 | +$2,745 | $15,974 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $42 11.2% OTM over spot $37.78 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.42 mid) = $330 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $42.41) 95% EV / mo +$4,355 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,722/mo median; plan ~$1,171/mo after 68% keep · $7,822 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.1], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,362 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 442 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $44 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $16 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $42.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $42): -$15,974 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,470 (+$6,910 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,680, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 32.3% | 96%hist 100% | 8%hist 1% | +1pp | $54 | $180 | -$2,100 | $4,928 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $50 32.3% OTM over spot $37.78 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.12 mid) = $54 credit for the 9d cycle → $180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $50.12) 96% EV / mo +$79 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-23/mo median; plan ~$-16/mo after 68% keep · $-102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.0-4.5], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,697 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $51 @ 69% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.13/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $2.21–$3.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $50.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $50): -$4,928 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,742 (+$16,638 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,952, the opportunity cost of earning $180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $45.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 20.4% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 5% | +3pp | $220 | $733 | -$1,547 | $12,584 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45.50 20.4% OTM over spot $37.78 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.64 mid) = $220 credit for the 9d cycle → $733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.13) 92% EV / mo +$146 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $291/mo median; plan ~$198/mo after 68% keep · $1,456 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.2-3.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,436 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 69% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.75/sh now → $2.66 mid-life (likely $2.32–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 450 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $46.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45.50): -$12,584 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,080 (+$10,300 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,290, the opportunity cost of earning $733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $43 | 7 Aug | 9d | 13.8% | 83%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +5pp | $432 | $1,440 | -$840 | $11,811 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $43 13.8% OTM over spot $37.78 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.78 mid) = $432 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $43.78) 86% EV / mo +$361 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $563/mo median; plan ~$383/mo after 68% keep · $2,976 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,576 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $45 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $2.53–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 789 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $44 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $43.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $43): -$11,811 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$659 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,966 (+$10,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,176, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $41.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 9.8% | 76%hist 96% | 50%hist 43% | +5pp | $684 | $2,280 | — | $14,440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $41.50 9.8% OTM over spot $37.78 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.14 mid) = $684 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $42.63) 81% EV / mo +$289 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $803/mo median; plan ~$546/mo after 68% keep · $4,471 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.2-3.8], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,497 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $45 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.42/sh now → $2.42 mid-life (likely $2.69–$4.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,191 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $43 (overshoots $1.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41.50 is $17 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $42.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $41.50): -$14,440 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$329 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,265 (+$8,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,475, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $40 | 7 Aug | 9d | 5.9% | 68%hist 80% | 68%hist 51% | +10pp | $1,320 | $4,400 | +$2,120 | $16,984 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $40 5.9% OTM over spot $37.78 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.55 mid) = $1,320 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $41.55) 76% EV / mo +$870 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,383/mo median; plan ~$941/mo after 68% keep · $6,748 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,015 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.30/sh now → $2.34 mid-life (likely $2.91–$4.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,678 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $41 (overshoots $1.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $58.30: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.32 collected) or spot ≥ $41.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $46.84 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.30, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,380 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,884 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $40): -$16,984 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,480 (+$5,900 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,790 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,690, the opportunity cost of earning $4,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.115 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,884 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,790
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 7/10 | $2,205 | $2,052 | 97% | 97% | +$2,053 | -$10,566 | 144.7% | $-11,050 (vs do-nothing $-8,260) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 6/10 | $2,160 | $2,009 | 95% | 96% | +$1,942 | -$9,338 | 127.9% | $-10,152 (vs do-nothing $-7,362) |
| $42 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 5/10 | $2,475 | $2,326 | 94% | 95% | +$2,178 | -$7,987 | 109.4% | $-9,130 (vs do-nothing $-6,340) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 6/10 | $2,160 | $2,009 | 91% | 94% | +$1,591 | -$9,938 | 136.1% | $-10,752 (vs do-nothing $-7,962) |
| $41 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,476 | 88% | 92% | +$1,888 | -$8,477 | 116.1% | $-9,620 (vs do-nothing $-6,830) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,476 | 84% | 91% | +$1,509 | -$8,727 | 119.5% | $-9,870 (vs do-nothing $-7,080) |
| $40 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 2/10 | $2,580 | $2,436 | 80% | 88% | +$1,921 | -$3,489 | 47.8% | $-5,620 (vs do-nothing $-2,830) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 9/10 | $2,280 | $2,123 | 76% | 81% | +$289 | -$14,440 | 197.8% | $-14,265 (vs do-nothing $-11,475) |
| $39.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 2/10 | $2,610 | $2,466 | 75% | 85% | +$1,661 | -$3,587 | 49.1% | $-5,718 (vs do-nothing $-2,928) |
| $42 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 10/10 | $2,194 | $2,035 | 73% | 80% | +$93 | -$15,134 | 207.3% | $-14,630 (vs do-nothing $-11,840) |
| $41 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 6/10 | $2,200 | $2,049 | 73% | 80% | +$643 | -$9,722 | 133.2% | $-10,536 (vs do-nothing $-7,746) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.15 | 10/10 | $2,156 | $1,997 | 71% | 79% | $-181 | -$15,654 | 214.4% | $-15,150 (vs do-nothing $-12,360) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 6/10 | $2,140 | $1,989 | 71% | 80% | +$320 | -$10,040 | 137.5% | $-10,854 (vs do-nothing $-8,064) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.66 | 10/10 | $2,165 | $2,006 | 70% | 78% | +$129 | -$15,144 | 207.5% | $-14,640 (vs do-nothing $-11,850) |
| $41 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 9/10 | $2,194 | $2,037 | 69% | 78% | $-142 | -$14,404 | 197.3% | $-14,229 (vs do-nothing $-11,439) |
| $41 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.94 | 9/10 | $2,277 | $2,120 | 68% | 77% | +$274 | -$13,828 | 189.4% | $-13,653 (vs do-nothing $-10,863) |
| $40 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 5/10 | $2,200 | $2,051 | 68% | 76% | +$435 | -$8,492 | 116.3% | $-9,635 (vs do-nothing $-6,845) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 8/10 | $2,385 | $2,230 | 67% | 76% | +$84 | -$12,971 | 177.7% | $-13,126 (vs do-nothing $-10,336) |
| $40.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 9/10 | $2,324 | $2,167 | 66% | 76% | +$136 | -$14,242 | 195.1% | $-14,067 (vs do-nothing $-11,277) |
| $40 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 9/10 | $2,362 | $2,206 | 65% | 75% | $-500 | -$15,214 | 208.4% | $-15,039 (vs do-nothing $-12,249) |
| $39 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 2/10 | $2,670 | $2,526 | 65% | 75% | +$430 | -$3,683 | 50.4% | $-5,814 (vs do-nothing $-3,024) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 5/10 | $2,467 | $2,317 | 64% | 75% | +$421 | -$8,662 | 118.7% | $-9,805 (vs do-nothing $-7,015) |
| $40 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 8/10 | $2,400 | $2,245 | 64% | 74% | +$279 | -$12,803 | 175.4% | $-12,958 (vs do-nothing $-10,168) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.72 | 7/10 | $2,258 | $2,104 | 63% | 73% | $-199 | -$11,959 | 163.8% | $-12,443 (vs do-nothing $-9,653) |
| $39.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.34 | 7/10 | $2,137 | $1,983 | 62% | 74% | +$114 | -$11,525 | 157.9% | $-12,009 (vs do-nothing $-9,219) |
| $39 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 5/10 | $2,583 | $2,434 | 61% | 73% | +$224 | -$8,877 | 121.6% | $-10,020 (vs do-nothing $-7,230) |
| $39 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.95 | 6/10 | $2,194 | $2,042 | 60% | 73% | $-125 | -$10,412 | 142.6% | $-11,226 (vs do-nothing $-8,436) |
| $39 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.56 | 7/10 | $2,337 | $2,184 | 60% | 73% | +$137 | -$11,721 | 160.6% | $-12,205 (vs do-nothing $-9,415) |
| $38.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 2/10 | $3,510 | $3,366 | 60% | 74% | +$723 | -$3,727 | 51.1% | $-5,858 (vs do-nothing $-3,068) |
| $38.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 5/10 | $2,417 | $2,267 | 58% | 72% | $-291 | -$9,177 | 125.7% | $-10,320 (vs do-nothing $-7,530) |
| $38.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 6/10 | $2,207 | $2,056 | 58% | 72% | +$158 | -$10,190 | 139.6% | $-11,004 (vs do-nothing $-8,214) |
| $38.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 7/10 | $2,231 | $2,078 | 58% | 71% | $-742 | -$12,673 | 173.6% | $-13,157 (vs do-nothing $-10,367) |
| $38 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 6/10 | $2,270 | $2,118 | 56% | 72% | +$47 | -$10,442 | 143.0% | $-11,256 (vs do-nothing $-8,466) |
| $38 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.26 | 5/10 | $2,119 | $1,969 | 55% | 71% | $-210 | -$9,022 | 123.6% | $-10,165 (vs do-nothing $-7,375) |
| $38 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 4/10 | $2,200 | $2,052 | 55% | 69% | $-272 | -$7,462 | 102.2% | $-8,934 (vs do-nothing $-6,144) |
| $38 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.46 | 1/10 | $2,190 | $2,048 | 54% | 71% | +$477 | -$1,884 | 25.8% | $-4,345 (vs do-nothing $-1,555) |
| $37.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 6/10 | $2,348 | $2,197 | 53% | 70% | $-59 | -$10,682 | 146.3% | $-11,496 (vs do-nothing $-8,706) |
| $37.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 5/10 | $2,625 | $2,476 | 53% | 69% | +$77 | -$9,002 | 123.3% | $-10,145 (vs do-nothing $-7,355) |
| $37.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.68 | 4/10 | $2,240 | $2,092 | 51% | 69% | $-567 | -$7,650 | 104.8% | $-9,122 (vs do-nothing $-6,332) |
| $37.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 2/10 | $4,080 | $3,936 | 49% | 68% | $-80 | -$3,889 | 53.3% | $-6,020 (vs do-nothing $-3,230) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.