10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.45 (banked floor $57.45) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,398/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $126/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,760 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 9 × $38 | 71% | $2,261 | $-381 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $47 | 7 Aug | 8d | 32.0% | 97%hist 100% | 6%hist 1% | +1pp | $35 | $131 | -$2,130 | $8,677 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $47 32.0% OTM over spot $35.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $35 credit for the 8d cycle → $131/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $47.18) 97% EV / mo +$49 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-22/mo median; plan ~$-15/mo after 68% keep · $-154 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.7-5.4], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,297 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 68% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.69/sh now → $1.90 mid-life (likely $1.37–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 58 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $47.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,462 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $47): -$8,677 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $49): -$3,131 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,107 (+$9,653 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,735 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,372, the opportunity cost of earning $131/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-18,035 (+$7,725 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $42.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 19.4% | 91%hist 100% | 19%hist 5% | +2pp | $150 | $562 | -$1,699 | $16,796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $42.50 19.4% OTM over spot $35.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $150 credit for the 8d cycle → $562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $42.81) 92% EV / mo +$17 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 38% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $218/mo median; plan ~$149/mo after 68% keep · $1,607 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-5.6], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,571 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $45 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.43/sh now → $1.72 mid-life (likely $1.42–$2.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $44 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $17 below CC-SS $59.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $42.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,462 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $42.50): -$16,796 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,095 (+$4,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,735 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,360, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,530, position total $-19,568 (+$6,192 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $39 | 7 Aug | 8d | 9.6% | 77%hist 96% | 48%hist 28% | +6pp | $414 | $1,552 | -$709 | $17,988 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $39 9.6% OTM over spot $35.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid) = $414 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,552/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $39.63) 80% EV / mo $-220 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $527/mo median; plan ~$359/mo after 68% keep · $3,887 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-5.6], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,007 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $43 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.23/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.65–$2.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,077 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $40 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $20 below CC-SS $59.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $39.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,462 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $39): -$17,988 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $49): -$1,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,330 (+$2,430 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,735 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,595, the opportunity cost of earning $1,552/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,248, position total $-22,285 (+$3,475 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $38 | 7 Aug | 8d | 6.7% | 71%hist 96% | 61%hist 51% | +6pp | $603 | $2,261 | — | $18,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $38 6.7% OTM over spot $35.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.85 mid) = $603 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,261/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $38.85) 76% EV / mo $-249 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $716/mo median; plan ~$487/mo after 68% keep · $5,200 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [2.4-5.7], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$782 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $42 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.18/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.86–$2.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,456 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $21 below CC-SS $59.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $38.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,462 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $38): -$18,699 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $49): -$1,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,041 (+$1,719 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,735 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,306, the opportunity cost of earning $2,261/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,959, position total $-22,996 (+$2,764 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $36 | 7 Aug | 8d | 1.1% | 56%hist 79% | 93%hist 90% | +9pp | $1,305 | $4,894 | +$2,632 | $19,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $36 1.1% OTM over spot $35.60 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.57 mid) = $1,305 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,894/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $36) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $37.57) 68% EV / mo +$107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~10.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,164/mo median; plan ~$791/mo after 68% keep · $8,612 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.8-5.8], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $2.01–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,215 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $37 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $23 below CC-SS $59.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.45 collected) or spot ≥ $37.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.33 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,760 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,462 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $36): -$19,797 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $49): -$1,044 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,139 (+$621 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-14,735 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,404, the opportunity cost of earning $4,894/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.18 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,057, position total $-24,094 (+$1,666 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$21,462 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-14,735
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 9/10 | $2,261 | $2,137 | 71% | 76% | $-249 | -$18,699 | 256.1% | $-24,041 (vs do-nothing $-9,306) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 8/10 | $2,400 | $2,278 | 68% | 74% | $-241 | -$16,917 | 231.7% | $-23,303 (vs do-nothing $-8,568) |
| $38 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 10/10 | $2,320 | $2,194 | 67% | 74% | $-168 | -$20,286 | 277.9% | $-24,585 (vs do-nothing $-9,850) |
| $38 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.66 | 10/10 | $2,264 | $2,138 | 66% | 73% | $-47 | -$19,786 | 271.0% | $-24,085 (vs do-nothing $-9,350) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 9/10 | $2,322 | $2,198 | 65% | 73% | $-197 | -$18,591 | 254.7% | $-23,933 (vs do-nothing $-9,198) |
| $37 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 6/10 | $2,632 | $2,514 | 64% | 73% | +$299 | -$12,766 | 174.9% | $-21,239 (vs do-nothing $-6,504) |
| $37.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 10/10 | $2,318 | $2,192 | 64% | 72% | $-225 | -$20,246 | 277.3% | $-24,545 (vs do-nothing $-9,810) |
| $37 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 7/10 | $2,380 | $2,260 | 62% | 72% | +$182 | -$14,522 | 198.9% | $-21,952 (vs do-nothing $-7,217) |
| $37 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.79 | 10/10 | $2,441 | $2,315 | 61% | 70% | $-354 | -$20,656 | 283.0% | $-24,955 (vs do-nothing $-10,220) |
| $36.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 6/10 | $2,498 | $2,380 | 60% | 70% | $-238 | -$13,102 | 179.5% | $-21,575 (vs do-nothing $-6,840) |
| $36.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 7/10 | $2,310 | $2,190 | 59% | 70% | $-152 | -$14,907 | 204.2% | $-22,337 (vs do-nothing $-7,602) |
| $36.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 9/10 | $2,405 | $2,281 | 59% | 69% | $-353 | -$18,888 | 258.7% | $-24,230 (vs do-nothing $-9,495) |
| $36 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 8/10 | $2,498 | $2,376 | 56% | 68% | $-185 | -$16,925 | 231.9% | $-23,311 (vs do-nothing $-8,576) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $36 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 7/10 | $2,436 | $2,316 | 56% | 68% | $-314 | -$15,194 | 208.1% | $-22,624 (vs do-nothing $-7,889) |
| $36 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 5/10 | $2,719 | $2,603 | 56% | 68% | +$60 | -$10,998 | 150.7% | $-20,515 (vs do-nothing $-5,780) |
| $35.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.35 | 7/10 | $2,243 | $2,123 | 54% | 66% | $-321 | -$15,117 | 207.1% | $-22,547 (vs do-nothing $-7,812) |
| $35.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 5/10 | $2,299 | $2,183 | 53% | 67% | +$111 | -$10,824 | 148.3% | $-20,340 (vs do-nothing $-5,605) |
| $35.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.50 | 4/10 | $2,250 | $2,136 | 52% | 66% | $-218 | -$8,979 | 123.0% | $-19,539 (vs do-nothing $-4,804) |
| $35 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.54 | 7/10 | $2,425 | $2,305 | 51% | 65% | $-371 | -$15,334 | 210.1% | $-22,764 (vs do-nothing $-8,029) |
| $35 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 5/10 | $2,498 | $2,382 | 50% | 65% | +$23 | -$10,974 | 150.3% | $-20,490 (vs do-nothing $-5,756) |
| $35 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.72 | 4/10 | $2,580 | $2,466 | 48% | 64% | $-267 | -$9,091 | 124.5% | $-19,651 (vs do-nothing $-4,916) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.