10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $59.02 (banked floor $57.03) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $2,010/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $330/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,580 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 10 × $41 | 88% | $1,087 | $-581 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 8 × $42.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 19.4% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | +2pp | $88 | $330 | -$757 | $13,126 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $42.50 19.4% OTM over spot $35.59 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.32 mid) = $88 credit for the 8d cycle → $330/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $42.82) 93% EV / mo +$55 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 37% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-108/mo median; plan ~$-73/mo after 68% keep · $-847 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,730 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $43 @ 67% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.21/sh now → $2.27 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $44 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42.50 is $17 below CC-SS $59.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $42.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,580 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,150 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $42.50): -$13,126 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $49): -$2,001 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,557 (+$11,023 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,437 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,120, the opportunity cost of earning $330/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,272, position total $-17,236 (+$8,344 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $42 | 7 Aug | 8d | 18.0% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +2pp | $160 | $600 | -$487 | $16,857 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $42 18.0% OTM over spot $35.59 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.37 mid) = $160 credit for the 8d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $42.37) 92% EV / mo +$159 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $45/mo median; plan ~$30/mo after 68% keep · $238 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.6-5.3], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,086 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $42 @ 67% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 392 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $59.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $42.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,580 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,150 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $42): -$16,857 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,287 (+$9,293 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,437 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,850, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,040, position total $-18,006 (+$7,574 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $41.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 16.6% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 13% | +2pp | $184 | $690 | -$397 | $13,830 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $41.50 16.6% OTM over spot $35.59 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.36 mid) = $184 credit for the 8d cycle → $690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $41.86) 91% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $80/mo median; plan ~$54/mo after 68% keep · $457 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-4.6], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,591 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $42 @ 68% POP 58% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.14/sh now → $2.22 mid-life (likely $1.98–$3.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 437 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41.50 is $18 below CC-SS $59.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $41.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,580 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,150 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $41.50): -$13,830 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $49): -$2,001 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,261 (+$10,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,437 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,824, the opportunity cost of earning $690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,976, position total $-17,940 (+$7,640 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $41 | 7 Aug | 8d | 15.2% | 88%hist 99% | 25%hist 13% | +6pp | $290 | $1,087 | — | $17,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $41 15.2% OTM over spot $35.59 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.51 mid) = $290 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,087/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $41.51) 90% EV / mo +$377 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $277/mo median; plan ~$188/mo after 68% keep · $1,783 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.8], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,902 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $42 @ 68% POP 58% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $1.94–$3.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 560 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $18 below CC-SS $59.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $41.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,580 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,150 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $41): -$17,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,157 (+$8,423 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,437 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,087/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,910, position total $-18,876 (+$6,704 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $39 | 7 Aug | 8d | 9.6% | 78%hist 96% | 45%hist 28% | +5pp | $560 | $2,100 | +$1,013 | $15,454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $39 9.6% OTM over spot $35.59 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.80 mid) = $560 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $39.80) 83% EV / mo +$740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $605/mo median; plan ~$411/mo after 68% keep · $3,901 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.8], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,108 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $41 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.95/sh now → $2.09 mid-life (likely $2.24–$3.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 994 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $40 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $20 below CC-SS $59.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.70 collected) or spot ≥ $39.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $47.28 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,580 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,150 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $39): -$15,454 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $49): -$2,001 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,885 (+$8,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,437 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,448, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $44.20 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,600, position total $-19,564 (+$6,016 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 38 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.116 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,150 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,437
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.29 | 10/10 | $1,087 | $757 | 88% | 90% | +$377 | -$17,727 | 242.8% | $-17,157 (vs do-nothing $-7,720) |
| $40.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.35 | 8/10 | $1,050 | $724 | 86% | 88% | +$336 | -$14,534 | 199.1% | $-15,965 (vs do-nothing $-6,528) |
| $42 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 10/10 | $1,050 | $720 | 81% | 85% | +$155 | -$16,247 | 222.6% | $-15,677 (vs do-nothing $-6,240) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.49 | 6/10 | $1,102 | $780 | 81% | 85% | +$274 | -$11,416 | 156.4% | $-14,849 (vs do-nothing $-5,412) |
| $41.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 10/10 | $1,064 | $734 | 80% | 83% | +$70 | -$16,737 | 229.3% | $-16,167 (vs do-nothing $-6,730) |
| $40.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 8/10 | $1,024 | $698 | 79% | 82% | $-57 | -$14,302 | 195.9% | $-15,733 (vs do-nothing $-6,296) |
| $41 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 9/10 | $1,129 | $801 | 78% | 82% | +$136 | -$15,388 | 210.8% | $-15,818 (vs do-nothing $-6,381) |
| $39 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 4/10 | $1,050 | $732 | 78% | 83% | +$370 | -$7,727 | 105.8% | $-13,161 (vs do-nothing $-3,724) |
| $40 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 10/10 | $1,100 | $770 | 77% | 81% | $-431 | -$18,467 | 253.0% | $-17,897 (vs do-nothing $-8,460) |
| $40.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 8/10 | $1,058 | $732 | 77% | 81% | +$79 | -$14,038 | 192.3% | $-15,469 (vs do-nothing $-6,032) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 5/10 | $1,144 | $824 | 75% | 81% | +$105 | -$9,954 | 136.4% | $-14,387 (vs do-nothing $-4,950) |
| $40 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.25 | 6/10 | $1,023 | $701 | 75% | 80% | +$207 | -$10,660 | 146.0% | $-14,093 (vs do-nothing $-4,656) |
| $39.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 7/10 | $1,155 | $831 | 73% | 79% | +$99 | -$12,815 | 175.5% | $-15,247 (vs do-nothing $-5,810) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 6/10 | $1,008 | $686 | 72% | 78% | $-164 | -$11,506 | 157.6% | $-14,939 (vs do-nothing $-5,502) |
| $38 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 4/10 | $1,125 | $807 | 72% | 78% | +$116 | -$8,107 | 111.1% | $-13,541 (vs do-nothing $-4,104) |
| $39 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 6/10 | $1,105 | $783 | 71% | 78% | +$101 | -$11,200 | 153.4% | $-14,633 (vs do-nothing $-5,196) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 7/10 | $1,120 | $796 | 70% | 76% | $-420 | -$13,802 | 189.1% | $-16,234 (vs do-nothing $-6,797) |
| $38.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 6/10 | $1,203 | $881 | 69% | 76% | +$90 | -$11,428 | 156.6% | $-14,861 (vs do-nothing $-5,424) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.94 | 3/10 | $1,058 | $742 | 68% | 77% | +$146 | -$6,173 | 84.6% | $-12,608 (vs do-nothing $-3,171) |
| $38 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 5/10 | $1,160 | $840 | 68% | 76% | $-29 | -$9,929 | 136.0% | $-14,362 (vs do-nothing $-4,925) |
| $38 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 5/10 | $1,139 | $819 | 66% | 75% | +$112 | -$9,674 | 132.5% | $-14,107 (vs do-nothing $-4,670) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 4/10 | $1,088 | $770 | 65% | 74% | $-22 | -$8,063 | 110.5% | $-13,497 (vs do-nothing $-4,060) |
| $37 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 3/10 | $1,148 | $832 | 64% | 75% | +$57 | -$6,299 | 86.3% | $-12,734 (vs do-nothing $-3,297) |
| $37.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.82 | 5/10 | $1,241 | $921 | 64% | 73% | +$25 | -$9,849 | 134.9% | $-14,282 (vs do-nothing $-4,845) |
| $37 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 3/10 | $1,020 | $704 | 62% | 74% | +$106 | -$6,095 | 83.5% | $-12,530 (vs do-nothing $-3,093) |
| $37 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.94 | 4/10 | $1,058 | $740 | 61% | 72% | $-14 | -$8,031 | 110.0% | $-13,465 (vs do-nothing $-4,028) |
| $36.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 3/10 | $1,361 | $1,045 | 60% | 72% | +$67 | -$6,392 | 87.6% | $-12,827 (vs do-nothing $-3,390) |
| $36.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 4/10 | $1,320 | $1,002 | 59% | 71% | $-54 | -$8,347 | 114.3% | $-13,781 (vs do-nothing $-4,344) |
| $36.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.13 | 4/10 | $1,162 | $844 | 59% | 71% | $-18 | -$8,155 | 111.7% | $-13,589 (vs do-nothing $-4,152) |
| $36 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 4/10 | $1,293 | $975 | 56% | 70% | $-2 | -$8,259 | 113.1% | $-13,693 (vs do-nothing $-4,256) |
| $36 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 2/10 | $1,058 | $744 | 56% | 71% | +$40 | -$4,321 | 59.2% | $-11,757 (vs do-nothing $-2,320) |
| $36 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 3/10 | $1,110 | $794 | 56% | 70% | $-47 | -$6,350 | 87.0% | $-12,785 (vs do-nothing $-3,348) |
| $35.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.51 | 3/10 | $1,027 | $711 | 54% | 69% | $-37 | -$6,302 | 86.3% | $-12,737 (vs do-nothing $-3,300) |
| $35.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 5/10 | $1,090 | $770 | 53% | 68% | $-1,067 | -$11,214 | 153.6% | $-15,647 (vs do-nothing $-6,210) |
| $35.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 2/10 | $1,155 | $841 | 52% | 69% | $-35 | -$4,395 | 60.2% | $-11,831 (vs do-nothing $-2,394) |
| $35 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.61 | 3/10 | $1,068 | $752 | 51% | 68% | $-96 | -$6,422 | 88.0% | $-12,857 (vs do-nothing $-3,420) |
| $35 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.15 | 5/10 | $1,150 | $830 | 50% | 65% | $-1,254 | -$11,434 | 156.6% | $-15,867 (vs do-nothing $-6,430) |
| $35 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.66 | 2/10 | $1,245 | $931 | 47% | 66% | $-138 | -$4,471 | 61.3% | $-11,907 (vs do-nothing $-2,470) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.