10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.48 (banked floor $56.49) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,006/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $171/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,675 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $0.38 | $380 | 2026-07-31 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 9 × $44 | 90% | $2,700 | $1,864 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 9 × $43.50 | 77% | $2,520 | $-825 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $46.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 18.1% | 97%hist 99% | 7%hist 1% | +0pp | $12 | $180 | -$2,520 | $3,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $46.50 18.1% OTM over spot $39.38 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $12 credit for the 2d cycle → $180/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $46.67) 97% EV / mo +$81 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $162/mo median; plan ~$110/mo after 68% keep · $663 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.4], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$551 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $50 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.65/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 57 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $12 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $46.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $46.50): -$3,582 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $55): -$2,331 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,597 (+$15,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,583, the opportunity cost of earning $180/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $45 | 7 Aug | 2d | 14.3% | 94%hist 99% | 13%hist 6% | +5pp | $120 | $1,800 | -$900 | $13,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $45 14.3% OTM over spot $39.38 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $120 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $45.17) 94% EV / mo +$1,009 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $992/mo median; plan ~$674/mo after 68% keep · $3,477 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,695 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $49 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.57/sh now → $1.82 mid-life (likely $1.66–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 162 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $46 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $45.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $45): -$13,360 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,044 (+$7,631 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,030, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $44 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.7% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +7pp | $180 | $2,700 | — | $12,852 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $44 11.7% OTM over spot $39.38 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $180 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $44.27) 91% EV / mo +$1,393 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,469/mo median; plan ~$999/mo after 68% keep · $5,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,417 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.88–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $44.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $44): -$12,852 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$333 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,869 (+$7,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,855, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $44 | 7 Aug | 2d | 11.7% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +8pp | $200 | $3,000 | +$300 | $14,280 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $44 11.7% OTM over spot $39.38 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.28 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $44.27) 91% EV / mo +$1,548 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,633/mo median; plan ~$1,110/mo after 68% keep · $5,296 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.6], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,575 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.51/sh now → $1.77 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $14 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $44.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $44): -$14,280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,964 (+$6,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,950, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 7 × $42 | 7 Aug | 2d | 6.7% | 79%hist 92% | 44%hist 32% | +7pp | $364 | $5,460 | +$2,760 | $11,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $42 6.7% OTM over spot $39.38 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.63 mid) = $364 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $42.63) 83% EV / mo +$2,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,386/mo median; plan ~$1,622/mo after 68% keep · $8,615 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$822 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.96–$3.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $43 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $16 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $42.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $42): -$11,172 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$999 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,855 (+$8,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,841, the opportunity cost of earning $5,460/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 6 × $50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 27.0% | 95%hist 99% | 11%hist 6% | -0pp | $60 | $200 | -$2,320 | $5,028 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $50 27.0% OTM over spot $39.38 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $60 credit for the 9d cycle → $200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $50.29) 95% EV / mo +$36 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $84/mo median; plan ~$57/mo after 68% keep · $338 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,680 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $51 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life (likely $2.31–$4.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 197 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $51 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $50.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $50): -$5,028 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $55): -$1,332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,044 (+$14,631 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,030, the opportunity cost of earning $200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $48 | 14 Aug | 9d | 21.9% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +1pp | $230 | $767 | -$1,753 | $10,250 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $48 21.9% OTM over spot $39.38 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.53 mid) = $230 credit for the 9d cycle → $767/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.53) 92% EV / mo +$237 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $321/mo median; plan ~$218/mo after 68% keep · $1,463 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,554 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $49 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.94/sh now → $2.78 mid-life (likely $2.46–$4.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $48.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $48): -$10,250 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,934 (+$10,741 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,920, the opportunity cost of earning $767/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 8 × $45 | 14 Aug | 9d | 14.3% | 83%hist 95% | 35%hist 22% | +6pp | $520 | $1,733 | -$787 | $10,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $45 14.3% OTM over spot $39.38 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.86 mid) = $520 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $45.87) 86% EV / mo +$637 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $740/mo median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $4,071 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [1.0-3.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,568 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $49 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.69/sh now → $2.61 mid-life (likely $2.49–$3.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 798 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $45): -$10,264 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,614 (+$10,061 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,600, the opportunity cost of earning $1,733/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $43.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 10.5% | 77%hist 92% | 48%hist 32% | +5pp | $756 | $2,520 | — | $12,726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $43.50 10.5% OTM over spot $39.38 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.25 mid) = $756 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $44.75) 82% EV / mo +$583 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $976/mo median; plan ~$664/mo after 68% keep · $4,543 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.6], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,515 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $47 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.57/sh now → $2.52 mid-life (likely $2.68–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,093 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $44.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $43.50): -$12,726 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$333 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,743 (+$7,932 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,729, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $40.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 2.8% | 60%hist 78% | 84%hist 81% | +8pp | $1,600 | $5,333 | +$2,813 | $16,380 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $40.50 2.8% OTM over spot $39.38 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.13 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $42.63) 73% EV / mo +$395 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,478/mo median; plan ~$1,005/mo after 68% keep · $7,275 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.6], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$749 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $3.14–$4.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,031 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $42 (overshoots $1.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $18 below CC-SS $58.48: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $42.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.39 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.48, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,991 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $40.50): -$16,380 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,064 (+$4,611 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,014 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,050, the opportunity cost of earning $5,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.099 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,991 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,014
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.20 | 9/10 | $2,700 | $2,557 | 90% | 91% | +$1,393 | -$12,852 | 176.1% | $-12,869 (vs do-nothing $-9,855) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.30 | 6/10 | $2,700 | $2,642 | 88% | 90% | +$1,524 | -$8,808 | 120.7% | $-9,824 (vs do-nothing $-6,810) |
| $43 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.22 | 8/10 | $2,640 | $2,525 | 85% | 88% | +$537 | -$12,208 | 167.2% | $-12,558 (vs do-nothing $-9,544) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.17 | 10/10 | $2,550 | $2,379 | 82% | 85% | $-950 | -$15,810 | 216.6% | $-15,494 (vs do-nothing $-12,480) |
| $42 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.52 | 4/10 | $3,120 | $3,118 | 79% | 83% | +$1,273 | -$6,384 | 87.5% | $-8,066 (vs do-nothing $-5,052) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 9/10 | $2,520 | $2,377 | 77% | 82% | +$583 | -$12,726 | 174.3% | $-12,743 (vs do-nothing $-9,729) |
| $43 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 9/10 | $2,580 | $2,437 | 75% | 80% | +$339 | -$13,158 | 180.3% | $-13,175 (vs do-nothing $-10,161) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 4/10 | $3,180 | $3,178 | 74% | 81% | +$766 | -$6,580 | 90.1% | $-8,262 (vs do-nothing $-5,248) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 10/10 | $2,644 | $2,473 | 73% | 80% | +$654 | -$13,570 | 185.9% | $-13,254 (vs do-nothing $-10,240) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 8/10 | $2,533 | $2,419 | 72% | 79% | +$235 | -$12,024 | 164.7% | $-12,374 (vs do-nothing $-9,360) |
| $43 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 9/10 | $2,632 | $2,490 | 71% | 79% | +$638 | -$12,528 | 171.6% | $-12,545 (vs do-nothing $-9,531) |
| $42 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 7/10 | $2,847 | $2,760 | 69% | 78% | +$533 | -$10,682 | 146.3% | $-11,365 (vs do-nothing $-8,351) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 9/10 | $2,784 | $2,642 | 69% | 77% | +$566 | -$12,897 | 176.7% | $-12,914 (vs do-nothing $-9,900) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 9/10 | $2,524 | $2,381 | 69% | 77% | +$437 | -$11,997 | 164.3% | $-12,014 (vs do-nothing $-9,000) |
| $42 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 8/10 | $2,700 | $2,585 | 67% | 76% | +$509 | -$11,744 | 160.9% | $-12,094 (vs do-nothing $-9,080) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 6/10 | $2,720 | $2,662 | 67% | 77% | +$445 | -$9,372 | 128.4% | $-10,388 (vs do-nothing $-7,374) |
| $42 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.97 | 10/10 | $2,570 | $2,399 | 65% | 75% | $-160 | -$14,510 | 198.8% | $-14,194 (vs do-nothing $-11,180) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 3/10 | $3,510 | $3,536 | 65% | 77% | +$516 | -$5,160 | 70.7% | $-7,175 (vs do-nothing $-4,161) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.97 | 7/10 | $2,586 | $2,499 | 65% | 75% | +$459 | -$10,507 | 143.9% | $-11,190 (vs do-nothing $-8,176) |
| $41 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.40 | 6/10 | $2,800 | $2,742 | 64% | 74% | +$199 | -$9,648 | 132.2% | $-10,664 (vs do-nothing $-7,650) |
| $41 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 7/10 | $2,835 | $2,749 | 62% | 74% | +$480 | -$10,724 | 146.9% | $-11,407 (vs do-nothing $-8,393) |
| $41 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.27 | 9/10 | $2,665 | $2,522 | 61% | 73% | $-213 | -$13,689 | 187.5% | $-13,706 (vs do-nothing $-10,692) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 5/10 | $2,667 | $2,636 | 60% | 73% | +$197 | -$8,190 | 112.2% | $-9,539 (vs do-nothing $-6,525) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.28 | 6/10 | $2,565 | $2,507 | 60% | 73% | +$333 | -$9,420 | 129.0% | $-10,436 (vs do-nothing $-7,422) |
| $40 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 2/10 | $3,540 | $3,594 | 59% | 73% | +$1,017 | -$3,460 | 47.4% | $-5,808 (vs do-nothing $-2,794) |
| $40 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 7/10 | $2,739 | $2,653 | 57% | 70% | +$131 | -$10,836 | 148.4% | $-11,519 (vs do-nothing $-8,505) |
| $40 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.79 | 5/10 | $2,983 | $2,953 | 57% | 72% | +$180 | -$8,345 | 114.3% | $-9,694 (vs do-nothing $-6,680) |
| $40 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.60 | 6/10 | $2,925 | $2,867 | 57% | 71% | +$462 | -$9,528 | 130.5% | $-10,544 (vs do-nothing $-7,530) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.67 | 6/10 | $3,004 | $2,945 | 54% | 70% | +$291 | -$9,786 | 134.1% | $-10,802 (vs do-nothing $-7,788) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 5/10 | $2,833 | $2,803 | 54% | 69% | $-338 | -$8,640 | 118.4% | $-9,989 (vs do-nothing $-6,975) |
| $39 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.96 | 7/10 | $2,703 | $2,616 | 53% | 70% | $-320 | -$11,564 | 158.4% | $-12,247 (vs do-nothing $-9,233) |
| $39 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 5/10 | $2,812 | $2,782 | 52% | 68% | +$329 | -$8,240 | 112.9% | $-9,589 (vs do-nothing $-6,575) |
| $39 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 5/10 | $2,517 | $2,486 | 50% | 69% | $-1,058 | -$8,985 | 123.1% | $-10,334 (vs do-nothing $-7,320) |
| $39 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 2/10 | $3,390 | $3,444 | 47% | 69% | $-502 | -$3,670 | 50.3% | $-6,018 (vs do-nothing $-3,004) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.