10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.15 | CC-SS: $58.99 (banked floor $57.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $47,300 | (ND $7.30 + SW $40) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,360/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $127/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,040 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10x $41C 7 Aug 2026 | U18827291 | $0.38 | $380 | 2026-07-31 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 9 × $41 | 76% | $2,228 | $-901 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $47 | 14 Aug | 8d | 24.3% | 96%hist 99% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $40 | $150 | -$2,078 | $5,953 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $47 24.3% OTM over spot $37.80 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $40 credit for the 8d cycle → $150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $47.30) 97% EV / mo +$87 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $27/mo median; plan ~$18/mo after 68% keep · $118 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.2-5.1], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,184 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $47 @ 67% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $1.86–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 130 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $47.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,425 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $47): -$5,953 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $55): -$1,973 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,540 (+$15,500 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,560 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,980, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $47 | 14 Aug | 8d | 24.3% | 96%hist 99% | 7%hist 1% | +1pp | $80 | $300 | -$1,928 | $11,905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $47 24.3% OTM over spot $37.80 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.30 mid) = $80 credit for the 8d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $47.30) 97% EV / mo +$174 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $99/mo median; plan ~$67/mo after 68% keep · $520 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,368 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $47 @ 67% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $1.73–$3.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 145 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $48 (overshoots $1.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $47.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,425 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $47): -$11,905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,520 (+$11,520 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,560 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,960, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 9 × $42 | 14 Aug | 8d | 11.1% | 82%hist 95% | 38%hist 22% | +3pp | $405 | $1,519 | -$709 | $14,882 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $42 11.1% OTM over spot $37.80 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.82 mid) = $405 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,519/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $42.83) 86% EV / mo +$301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $623/mo median; plan ~$424/mo after 68% keep · $4,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.9-4.9], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,564 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $44 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.09/sh now → $2.19 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 843 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $58.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $42.83 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,425 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $42): -$14,882 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,891 (+$8,149 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,560 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,331, the opportunity cost of earning $1,519/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $41 | 14 Aug | 8d | 8.5% | 76%hist 92% | 50%hist 32% | +6pp | $594 | $2,228 | — | $15,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $41 8.5% OTM over spot $37.80 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.03 mid) = $594 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,228/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $42.03) 82% EV / mo +$413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $810/mo median; plan ~$550/mo after 68% keep · $5,464 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,328 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $44 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.02/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.30–$3.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,162 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $1.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $18 below CC-SS $58.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $42.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,425 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $41): -$15,593 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,602 (+$7,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,560 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,042, the opportunity cost of earning $2,228/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $39 | 14 Aug | 8d | 3.2% | 62%hist 78% | 79%hist 59% | +7pp | $1,170 | $4,388 | +$2,160 | $16,817 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $39 3.2% OTM over spot $37.80 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.67 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,388/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $40.67) 74% EV / mo +$670 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,204/mo median; plan ~$819/mo after 68% keep · $7,931 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$659 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $44 @ 80% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $2.67–$3.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,901 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $40 (overshoots $1.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39 is $20 below CC-SS $58.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.30 collected) or spot ≥ $40.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.57 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,040 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,425 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $39): -$16,817 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$395 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,826 (+$6,214 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,560 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,266, the opportunity cost of earning $4,388/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.106 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,425 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,560
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 9/10 | $2,228 | $2,109 | 76% | 82% | +$413 | -$15,593 | 213.6% | $-15,602 (vs do-nothing $-12,042) |
| $40.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 8/10 | $2,430 | $2,319 | 73% | 80% | +$480 | -$14,140 | 193.7% | $-14,544 (vs do-nothing $-10,984) |
| $41 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 9/10 | $2,394 | $2,275 | 71% | 78% | +$486 | -$14,990 | 205.3% | $-14,999 (vs do-nothing $-11,439) |
| $40 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 6/10 | $2,182 | $2,088 | 70% | 78% | +$427 | -$10,809 | 148.1% | $-12,002 (vs do-nothing $-8,442) |
| $41 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.67 | 10/10 | $2,277 | $2,151 | 69% | 77% | +$232 | -$16,315 | 223.5% | $-15,930 (vs do-nothing $-12,370) |
| $40.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 8/10 | $2,288 | $2,177 | 69% | 77% | +$379 | -$13,644 | 186.9% | $-14,048 (vs do-nothing $-10,488) |
| $40 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 7/10 | $2,226 | $2,123 | 66% | 76% | +$349 | -$12,177 | 166.8% | $-12,975 (vs do-nothing $-9,415) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 6/10 | $2,475 | $2,380 | 66% | 76% | +$382 | -$11,031 | 151.1% | $-12,224 (vs do-nothing $-8,664) |
| $40 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 8/10 | $2,182 | $2,071 | 65% | 74% | +$217 | -$13,588 | 186.1% | $-13,992 (vs do-nothing $-10,432) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 7/10 | $2,380 | $2,277 | 63% | 74% | +$275 | -$12,450 | 170.5% | $-13,248 (vs do-nothing $-9,688) |
| $39 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.30 | 5/10 | $2,438 | $2,351 | 62% | 74% | +$372 | -$9,343 | 128.0% | $-10,930 (vs do-nothing $-7,370) |
| $39 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 6/10 | $2,400 | $2,305 | 61% | 73% | +$380 | -$10,791 | 147.8% | $-11,984 (vs do-nothing $-8,424) |
| $39 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 8/10 | $2,345 | $2,235 | 60% | 74% | $-6 | -$14,268 | 195.5% | $-14,672 (vs do-nothing $-11,112) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.45 | 5/10 | $2,719 | $2,632 | 58% | 71% | +$220 | -$9,518 | 130.4% | $-11,105 (vs do-nothing $-7,545) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.04 | 6/10 | $2,448 | $2,353 | 58% | 71% | +$191 | -$11,067 | 151.6% | $-12,260 (vs do-nothing $-8,700) |
| $38 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 6/10 | $2,209 | $2,114 | 55% | 72% | +$107 | -$10,971 | 150.3% | $-12,164 (vs do-nothing $-8,604) |
| $38 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 5/10 | $2,180 | $2,093 | 55% | 70% | +$83 | -$9,403 | 128.8% | $-10,990 (vs do-nothing $-7,430) |
| $38 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 4/10 | $2,550 | $2,471 | 54% | 71% | +$280 | -$7,714 | 105.7% | $-9,696 (vs do-nothing $-6,136) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.47 | 5/10 | $2,470 | $2,383 | 52% | 69% | +$139 | -$9,508 | 130.2% | $-11,095 (vs do-nothing $-7,535) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.61 | 4/10 | $2,415 | $2,336 | 50% | 68% | $-218 | -$7,950 | 108.9% | $-9,932 (vs do-nothing $-6,372) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.