50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.10 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,781/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $720/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 40 × $14.50 | 94% | $2,400 | $1,680 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 43 × $14.50 | 79% | $2,437 | $629 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 48 × $15 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.1% | 99% | 3% | $48 | $720 | -$1,680 | $14,837 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $15 10.1% OTM over spot $13.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $48 credit for the 2d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.02) 99% EV / mo +$654 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.0] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,888 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,057 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.23 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $15.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $15): -$14,837 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,055 (+$6,920 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,600, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$720, position total $-15,173 (+$6,802 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 27 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.4% | 94% | 13% | $108 | $1,620 | -$780 | $9,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $108 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$1,302 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-4.8] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$474 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $14.50): -$9,615 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$2,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,124 (+$9,851 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,669, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,674, position total $-16,106 (+$5,869 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 40 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.4% | 94% | 6% | $160 | $2,400 | — | $14,244 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $160 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$1,930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.3 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,015 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$702 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 167 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $14.50): -$14,244 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$1,091 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,335 (+$6,640 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,880, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,480, position total $-16,925 (+$5,050 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.4% | 94% | 13% | $200 | $3,000 | +$600 | $17,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $200 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$2,412 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 41% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,266 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$877 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 172 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$17,805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,805 (+$4,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,350, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,100, position total $-17,555 (+$4,420 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 2.7% | 76% | 48% | $324 | $4,860 | +$2,460 | $10,749 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $14 2.7% OTM over spot $13.63 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.12 mid) = $324 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 83% EV / mo +$2,693 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~27.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$219 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 17 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.20 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 842 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $14): -$10,749 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$2,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,258 (+$8,717 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,803, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,808, position total $-17,240 (+$4,735 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 44 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 13.7% | 95% | 11% | $220 | $733 | -$1,703 | $11,224 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $15.50 13.7% OTM over spot $13.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.06 mid) = $220 credit for the 9d cycle → $733/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $15.55) 95% EV / mo +$540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.7-4.8] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-984 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,733 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 207 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $3 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $15.50): -$11,224 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$655 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,879 (+$10,096 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,424, the opportunity cost of earning $733/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-14,449 (+$7,526 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 28 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.4% | 79% | 44% | $476 | $1,587 | -$850 | $9,607 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.17 mid) = $476 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,587/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.68) 83% EV / mo +$638 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.6-5.1] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $517 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$615 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $14.50): -$9,607 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $17): -$2,400 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,007 (+$9,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,552, the opportunity cost of earning $1,587/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,372, position total $-15,805 (+$6,170 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 43 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.4% | 79% | 32% | $731 | $2,437 | — | $14,753 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.17 mid) = $731 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,437/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.68) 83% EV / mo +$980 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.8-5.2] median · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,980 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$944 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 971 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14.50): -$14,753 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$764 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,517 (+$6,458 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,062, the opportunity cost of earning $2,437/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,107, position total $-16,555 (+$5,420 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 48 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.7% | 64% | 73% | $1,440 | $4,800 | +$2,363 | $18,245 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 2.7% OTM over spot $13.63 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.30 mid) = $1,440 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $14.30) 74% EV / mo +$1,145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [2.0-5.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~16.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,118 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$306 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,843 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $14.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,975 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$18,245 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$218 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,463 (+$3,512 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,455 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,008, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.16 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,128, position total $-18,581 (+$3,394 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.983 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,975 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,455
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.04 | 40/50 | $2,400 | $1,699 | 94% | 94% | +$1,930 | -$14,244 | 65.8% | $-15,335 (vs do-nothing $-9,880) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 43/50 | $2,437 | $1,730 | 79% | 83% | +$980 | -$14,753 | 68.1% | $-15,517 (vs do-nothing $-10,062) |
| $14 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 14/50 | $2,520 | $1,867 | 76% | 83% | +$1,396 | -$5,573 | 25.7% | $-9,501 (vs do-nothing $-4,046) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 48/50 | $2,430 | $1,714 | 73% | 79% | +$637 | -$15,989 | 73.9% | $-16,207 (vs do-nothing $-10,752) |
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 24/50 | $2,400 | $1,729 | 64% | 74% | +$572 | -$9,122 | 42.1% | $-11,959 (vs do-nothing $-6,504) |
| $14 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 30/50 | $2,419 | $1,736 | 62% | 72% | +$450 | -$11,013 | 50.9% | $-13,195 (vs do-nothing $-7,740) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 20/50 | $2,400 | $1,736 | 49% | 66% | +$254 | -$7,922 | 36.6% | $-11,195 (vs do-nothing $-5,740) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 15/50 | $2,550 | $1,896 | 47% | 65% | +$314 | -$6,137 | 28.3% | $-9,955 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 5/50 | $2,475 | $1,839 | 41% | 66% | +$592 | -$2,136 | 9.9% | $-7,045 (vs do-nothing $-1,590) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.