50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,531/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $720/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,325 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 24 × $14 | 84% | $2,880 | $1,576 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 34 × $14 | 70% | $2,833 | $770 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 48 × $15 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.4% | 99% | 2% | $48 | $720 | -$2,160 | $14,484 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $15 11.4% OTM over spot $13.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $48 credit for the 2d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.02) 99% EV / mo +$675 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-4.8] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-5,903 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,146 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $15.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $15): -$14,484 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17): -$204 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,688 (+$7,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,600, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$672, position total $-14,741 (+$7,584 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 7.7% | 96% | 8% | $100 | $1,500 | -$1,380 | $17,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 7.7% OTM over spot $13.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid) = $100 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.53) 96% EV / mo +$1,180 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.7-4.8] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-295 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,064 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $14.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$17,538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,538 (+$4,787 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,450, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,150, position total $-17,221 (+$5,104 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.0% | 84% | 32% | $128 | $1,920 | -$960 | $6,316 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $14 4.0% OTM over spot $13.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $128 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.09) 88% EV / mo +$1,238 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [2.0-5.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~18.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,203 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$220 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 569 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $14): -$6,316 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (34 × $17): -$3,460 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,776 (+$12,549 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,688, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,712, position total $-15,749 (+$6,576 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.0% | 84% | 17% | $192 | $2,880 | — | $9,474 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14 4.0% OTM over spot $13.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $192 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.09) 88% EV / mo +$1,857 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,139 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$330 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 500 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14): -$9,474 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17): -$2,646 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,120 (+$10,205 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,032, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,568, position total $-16,613 (+$5,712 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 4.0% | 84% | 32% | $376 | $5,640 | +$2,760 | $18,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $14 4.0% OTM over spot $13.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $376 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.09) 88% EV / mo +$3,637 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-5.0] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,541 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$646 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 540 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $14.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $14): -$18,553 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17): -$305 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,859 (+$3,466 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,771, the opportunity cost of earning $5,640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,029, position total $-19,097 (+$3,228 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 27 × $15 | 17 Jul | 9d | 11.4% | 90% | 21% | $216 | $720 | -$2,113 | $7,958 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $15 11.4% OTM over spot $13.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $216 credit for the 9d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.09) 91% EV / mo +$400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.1-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,301 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$942 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 371 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $15): -$7,958 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17): -$2,340 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,299 (+$12,026 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,211, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$189, position total $-14,237 (+$8,088 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 43 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 7.7% | 83% | 36% | $559 | $1,863 | -$970 | $14,609 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14.50 7.7% OTM over spot $13.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $559 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,863/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.63) 85% EV / mo +$796 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.8-5.5] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~6.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,082 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,166 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 74% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 765 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14.50): -$14,609 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17): -$712 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,322 (+$7,003 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,234, the opportunity cost of earning $1,863/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,236, position total $-16,300 (+$6,025 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 34 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 4.0% | 70% | 49% | $850 | $2,833 | — | $12,844 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14 4.0% OTM over spot $13.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.26 mid) = $850 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $14.26) 78% EV / mo +$961 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,978 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$423 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,459 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $14.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14): -$12,844 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$1,628 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,472 (+$7,853 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,384, the opportunity cost of earning $2,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,060, position total $-17,115 (+$5,210 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 37 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 0.3% | 53% | 97% | $1,665 | $5,550 | +$2,717 | $15,087 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $13.50 0.3% OTM over spot $13.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.46 mid) = $1,665 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $13.96) 69% EV / mo +$1,182 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.6-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~32.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$375 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,348 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $13.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,325 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $13.50): -$15,087 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17): -$1,323 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,410 (+$5,915 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,088 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,322, the opportunity cost of earning $5,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,440, position total $-18,498 (+$3,827 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.978 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,325 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,088
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 24/50 | $2,880 | $2,209 | 84% | 88% | +$1,857 | -$9,474 | 43.8% | $-12,120 (vs do-nothing $-7,032) |
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 34/50 | $2,833 | $2,143 | 70% | 78% | +$961 | -$12,844 | 59.3% | $-14,472 (vs do-nothing $-9,384) |
| $14 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 39/50 | $2,779 | $2,079 | 66% | 75% | +$759 | -$14,225 | 65.7% | $-15,345 (vs do-nothing $-10,257) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 8/50 | $3,000 | $2,359 | 54% | 72% | +$1,091 | -$3,422 | 15.8% | $-7,696 (vs do-nothing $-2,608) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 25/50 | $2,766 | $2,092 | 53% | 68% | +$524 | -$9,844 | 45.5% | $-12,388 (vs do-nothing $-7,300) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 19/50 | $2,850 | $2,188 | 53% | 69% | +$607 | -$7,747 | 35.8% | $-10,902 (vs do-nothing $-5,814) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.