50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.19 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $765/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 50 × $14 | 92% | $2,250 | $1,087 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 49 × $14 | 79% | $2,287 | $258 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 92% | 15% | $54 | $810 | -$1,440 | $7,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $14 6.7% OTM over spot $13.12 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $54 credit for the 2d cycle → $810/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.04) 93% EV / mo +$516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.8-4.8] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,200 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$360 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 220 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $14): -$7,482 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (32 × $16.50): -$5,332 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,814 (+$11,986 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,482, the opportunity cost of earning $810/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,016, position total $-16,815 (+$7,985 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 34 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 92% | 15% | $102 | $1,530 | -$720 | $14,132 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14 6.7% OTM over spot $13.12 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $102 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.04) 93% EV / mo +$975 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.9-5.2] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,088 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$681 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 203 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14): -$14,132 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $16.50): -$2,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,798 (+$8,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,466, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,808, position total $-18,639 (+$6,161 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14 | 10 Jul | 2d | 6.7% | 92% | 7% | $150 | $2,250 | — | $20,782 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14 6.7% OTM over spot $13.12 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.04) 93% EV / mo +$1,435 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,634 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,001 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 202 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $14.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14): -$20,782 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,782 (+$4,018 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,450, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,600, position total $-20,463 (+$4,337 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 17 × $13.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 2.9% | 75% | 50% | $153 | $2,295 | +$45 | $7,814 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $13.50 2.9% OTM over spot $13.12 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $153 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,295/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 81% EV / mo +$781 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-5.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~29.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,445 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$213 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 893 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $13.50): -$7,814 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (33 × $16.50): -$5,499 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,313 (+$11,487 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,981, the opportunity cost of earning $2,295/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,652, position total $-17,449 (+$7,351 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 34 × $13.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 2.9% | 75% | 50% | $306 | $4,590 | +$2,340 | $15,628 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $13.50 2.9% OTM over spot $13.12 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $306 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $13.60) 81% EV / mo +$1,561 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [2.0-6.2] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~26.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,616 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$426 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.26–$0.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 959 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $13.50): -$15,628 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $16.50): -$2,666 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,294 (+$6,506 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,962, the opportunity cost of earning $4,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,304, position total $-20,135 (+$4,665 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 33 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 10.5% | 88% | 24% | $231 | $770 | -$1,517 | $11,934 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $14.50 10.5% OTM over spot $13.12 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $231 credit for the 9d cycle → $770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $14.58) 89% EV / mo +$298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.0-5.9] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,567 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,163 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 444 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $14.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $14.50): -$11,934 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $16.50): -$2,833 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,767 (+$10,033 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,435, the opportunity cost of earning $770/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,914, position total $-16,743 (+$8,057 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.7% | 79% | 43% | $448 | $1,493 | -$793 | $12,948 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 6.7% OTM over spot $13.12 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.15 mid) = $448 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,493/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 83% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.9-5.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~8.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $299 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$814 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 968 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$12,948 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $16.50): -$3,000 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,948 (+$8,852 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,616, the opportunity cost of earning $1,493/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,232, position total $-18,059 (+$6,741 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 49 × $14 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.7% | 79% | 32% | $686 | $2,287 | — | $19,827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $14 6.7% OTM over spot $13.12 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.15 mid) = $686 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,287/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 83% EV / mo +$716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.9-5.5] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,436 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,246 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 945 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $14): -$19,827 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $16.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,994 (+$4,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,662, the opportunity cost of earning $2,287/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,949, position total $-19,810 (+$4,990 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 49 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 2.9% | 65% | 72% | $1,372 | $4,573 | +$2,287 | $21,591 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 49 × $13.50 2.9% OTM over spot $13.12 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $1,372 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,573/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.79) 74% EV / mo +$1,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~16.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,879 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$428 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 49 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.52/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,755 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $13.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,800 − CC assignment net of premium (49 × $13.50): -$21,591 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $16.50): -$167 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,758 (+$3,042 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,332 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,426, the opportunity cost of earning $4,573/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,713, position total $-21,574 (+$3,226 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.979 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,800 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,332
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 49/50 | $2,287 | $1,525 | 79% | 83% | +$716 | -$19,827 | 91.6% | $-19,994 (vs do-nothing $-11,662) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 17/50 | $2,295 | $1,654 | 75% | 81% | +$781 | -$7,814 | 36.1% | $-13,313 (vs do-nothing $-4,981) |
| $14 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 49/50 | $2,297 | $1,536 | 74% | 79% | +$597 | -$19,288 | 89.1% | $-19,455 (vs do-nothing $-11,123) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 25/50 | $2,333 | $1,662 | 65% | 74% | +$571 | -$11,016 | 50.9% | $-15,182 (vs do-nothing $-6,850) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 30/50 | $2,306 | $1,616 | 62% | 72% | +$441 | -$12,829 | 59.3% | $-16,162 (vs do-nothing $-7,830) |
| $13 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 21/50 | $2,362 | $1,706 | 49% | 66% | +$159 | -$9,631 | 44.5% | $-14,464 (vs do-nothing $-6,132) |
| $13 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 14/50 | $2,287 | $1,657 | 47% | 66% | +$274 | -$6,575 | 30.4% | $-12,574 (vs do-nothing $-4,242) |
| $13 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 6/50 | $2,340 | $1,740 | 42% | 64% | +$17 | -$2,956 | 13.7% | $-10,288 (vs do-nothing $-1,956) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.