50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.22 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,150/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $758/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,650 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 28 × $13.50 | 67% | $2,625 | $677 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 34 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 10.6% | 91% | 19% | $204 | $765 | -$1,860 | $12,459 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14.50 10.6% OTM over spot $13.11 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $204 credit for the 8d cycle → $765/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 92% EV / mo +$429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.8-6.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-808 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,117 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 351 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,650 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14.50): -$12,459 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $16): -$3,511 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,970 (+$8,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,972 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,998, the opportunity cost of earning $765/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,938, position total $-16,790 (+$7,860 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 10.6% | 91% | 19% | $300 | $1,125 | -$1,500 | $18,322 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 10.6% OTM over spot $13.11 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $300 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 92% EV / mo +$631 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $112 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,642 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,650 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$18,322 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,322 (+$6,328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,972 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,350, the opportunity cost of earning $1,125/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,850, position total $-17,750 (+$6,900 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 38 × $14 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.8% | 82% | 37% | $456 | $1,710 | -$915 | $15,597 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 6.8% OTM over spot $13.11 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.12 mid) = $456 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,710/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 85% EV / mo +$737 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,605 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$921 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 818 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,650 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$15,597 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $16): -$2,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,230 (+$6,420 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,972 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,258, the opportunity cost of earning $1,710/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,838, position total $-18,702 (+$5,948 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 28 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.0% | 67% | 55% | $700 | $2,625 | — | $12,528 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $13.50 3.0% OTM over spot $13.11 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.26 mid) = $700 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 76% EV / mo +$809 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.1-5.6] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~18.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,537 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$244 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.48/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,651 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,650 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $13.50): -$12,528 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$4,828 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,356 (+$7,294 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,972 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,384, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,864, position total $-18,698 (+$5,952 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 30 × $13 | 17 Jul | 8d | -0.8% | 47% | 99+% | $1,380 | $5,175 | +$2,550 | $14,293 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $13 0.8% ITM over spot $13.11 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.48 mid) = $1,380 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 47% Breach risk 53% POP (stays ≤ $13.48) 66% EV / mo +$790 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$441 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.22: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.46 collected) or spot ≥ $13.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.22, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,650 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,650 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $13): -$14,293 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $16): -$4,389 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,682 (+$5,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,972 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,710, the opportunity cost of earning $5,175/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,010, position total $-19,850 (+$4,800 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 4 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.963 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,650 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,972
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 28/50 | $2,625 | $1,999 | 67% | 76% | +$809 | -$12,528 | 57.9% | $-17,356 (vs do-nothing $-6,384) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 34/50 | $2,652 | $1,990 | 63% | 73% | +$628 | -$14,737 | 68.1% | $-18,248 (vs do-nothing $-7,276) |
| $13 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 21/50 | $2,604 | $2,020 | 49% | 67% | +$387 | -$9,669 | 44.7% | $-16,033 (vs do-nothing $-5,061) |
| $13 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 15/50 | $2,588 | $2,040 | 47% | 66% | +$395 | -$7,147 | 33.0% | $-14,827 (vs do-nothing $-3,855) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.