50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.24 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $758/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 30 × $13.50 | 66% | $2,362 | $499 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 23 × $14 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.6% | 82% | 38% | $207 | $776 | -$1,586 | $9,543 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14 6.6% OTM over spot $13.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.10 mid) = $207 credit for the 8d cycle → $776/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 84% EV / mo +$174 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-5.9] median · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~8.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,715 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$534 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.32–$0.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 827 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,600 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14): -$9,543 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $16): -$5,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,534 (+$9,066 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,095 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,439, the opportunity cost of earning $776/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,392, position total $-17,308 (+$7,292 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 45 × $14 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.6% | 82% | 38% | $405 | $1,519 | -$844 | $18,671 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $14 6.6% OTM over spot $13.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.10 mid) = $405 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,519/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 84% EV / mo +$341 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.5] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $597 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,045 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 72% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.32–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 863 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,600 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $14): -$18,671 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $16): -$1,110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,780 (+$4,820 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,095 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,685, the opportunity cost of earning $1,519/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,680, position total $-19,640 (+$4,960 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 30 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.8% | 66% | 55% | $630 | $2,362 | — | $13,587 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $13.50 2.8% OTM over spot $13.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $630 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,362/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 74% EV / mo +$411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.6-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~18.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,590 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$269 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,659 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,600 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $13.50): -$13,587 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $16): -$4,438 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,025 (+$6,575 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,095 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,930, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,260, position total $-19,190 (+$5,410 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 28 × $13 | 17 Jul | 8d | -1.0% | 46% | 99+% | $1,232 | $4,620 | +$2,258 | $13,437 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $13 1.0% ITM over spot $13.13 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $1,232 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 46% Breach risk 54% POP (stays ≤ $13.46) 64% EV / mo +$480 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$454 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $14 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.28 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $5 below CC-SS $18.24: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $13.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.96 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.24, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,600 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $13): -$13,437 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $16): -$4,882 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,319 (+$6,281 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-11,095 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,224, the opportunity cost of earning $4,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,732, position total $-19,658 (+$4,942 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 4 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.963 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,095
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 30/50 | $2,362 | $1,685 | 66% | 74% | +$411 | -$13,587 | 62.8% | $-18,025 (vs do-nothing $-6,930) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 32/50 | $2,304 | $1,618 | 63% | 72% | +$432 | -$14,013 | 64.7% | $-18,007 (vs do-nothing $-6,912) |
| $13 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 20/50 | $2,360 | $1,722 | 48% | 65% | +$245 | -$9,298 | 42.9% | $-15,955 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $13 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 14/50 | $2,310 | $1,696 | 46% | 64% | +$240 | -$6,719 | 31.0% | $-14,707 (vs do-nothing $-3,612) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.