50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,377/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $719/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,550 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 24 × $13.50 | 65% | $2,263 | $606 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.9% | 93% | 14% | $168 | $720 | -$1,543 | $15,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $14.50 9.9% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 7d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$474 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.7-6.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.6 mo) · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,258 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,224 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 296 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $14.50): -$15,640 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$587 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,227 (+$8,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,558, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,478, position total $-17,622 (+$6,928 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 38 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 84% | 33% | $342 | $1,466 | -$797 | $15,860 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 6.1% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $342 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,466/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 86% EV / mo +$713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~8.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,006 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$830 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$15,860 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$881 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,741 (+$7,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,072, the opportunity cost of earning $1,466/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,952, position total $-19,084 (+$5,466 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 65% | 56% | $528 | $2,263 | — | $10,905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $528 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,263/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 75% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~22.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,480 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$159 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,689 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$10,905 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17.50): -$1,908 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,813 (+$11,737 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,144, the opportunity cost of earning $2,263/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,384, position total $-18,474 (+$6,076 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 65% | 71% | $1,034 | $4,431 | +$2,169 | $21,356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $1,034 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,431/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 75% EV / mo +$1,261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.3-6.2] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~21.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,884 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$311 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,714 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $13.50): -$21,356 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17.50): -$220 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,576 (+$2,974 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,669 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,907, the opportunity cost of earning $4,431/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,627, position total $-21,786 (+$2,764 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.968 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,550 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,669
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 24/50 | $2,263 | $1,655 | 65% | 75% | +$644 | -$10,905 | 50.4% | $-12,813 (vs do-nothing $-9,144) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 28/50 | $2,220 | $1,595 | 61% | 72% | +$475 | -$12,303 | 56.8% | $-13,917 (vs do-nothing $-10,248) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 32/50 | $2,194 | $1,552 | 60% | 72% | +$441 | -$13,708 | 63.3% | $-15,029 (vs do-nothing $-11,360) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 22/50 | $2,263 | $1,663 | 47% | 66% | +$298 | -$9,996 | 46.2% | $-12,051 (vs do-nothing $-8,382) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/50 | $2,314 | $1,732 | 46% | 65% | +$245 | -$8,395 | 38.8% | $-10,743 (vs do-nothing $-7,074) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 12/50 | $2,314 | $1,758 | 42% | 64% | +$277 | -$5,777 | 26.7% | $-8,565 (vs do-nothing $-4,896) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.