50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,608/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $719/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,550 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 23 × $13.50 | 66% | $2,366 | $640 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.9% | 93% | 13% | $168 | $720 | -$1,646 | $15,633 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $14.50 9.9% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 7d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 94% EV / mo +$489 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-6.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.2 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,155 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,307 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.26–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 278 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $14.50): -$15,633 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$586 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,219 (+$8,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,558, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,478, position total $-17,614 (+$6,936 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 84% | 32% | $360 | $1,543 | -$823 | $14,984 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $14 6.1% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $360 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,543/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 87% EV / mo +$855 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,372 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$816 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 795 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $14): -$14,984 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17.50): -$1,025 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,009 (+$8,541 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,348, the opportunity cost of earning $1,543/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,708, position total $-18,826 (+$5,724 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 23 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.4% | 66% | 58% | $552 | $2,366 | — | $10,401 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $13.50 2.4% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $552 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,366/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 76% EV / mo +$859 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-5.9] median, 0.7 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~21.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,908 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$145 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,733 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $13.50): -$10,401 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $17.50): -$1,977 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,378 (+$12,172 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,717, the opportunity cost of earning $2,366/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,197, position total $-18,276 (+$6,274 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 45 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.4% | 66% | 70% | $1,080 | $4,629 | +$2,263 | $20,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $13.50 2.4% OTM over spot $13.19 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,629/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 76% EV / mo +$1,680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.4 mo [2.8-6.2] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.7 mo) · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~21.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,734 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$283 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,626 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.98 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,550 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,550 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $13.50): -$20,350 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17.50): -$366 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,716 (+$3,834 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,661 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,055, the opportunity cost of earning $4,629/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,255, position total $-21,400 (+$3,150 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.968 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,550 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,661
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 23/50 | $2,366 | $1,762 | 66% | 76% | +$859 | -$10,401 | 48.0% | $-12,378 (vs do-nothing $-8,717) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 28/50 | $2,340 | $1,715 | 62% | 73% | +$639 | -$12,242 | 56.5% | $-13,853 (vs do-nothing $-10,192) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 33/50 | $2,357 | $1,711 | 60% | 72% | +$604 | -$14,065 | 65.0% | $-15,310 (vs do-nothing $-11,649) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 22/50 | $2,326 | $1,726 | 47% | 67% | +$378 | -$9,949 | 46.0% | $-11,999 (vs do-nothing $-8,338) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 18/50 | $2,391 | $1,809 | 46% | 66% | +$336 | -$8,356 | 38.6% | $-10,699 (vs do-nothing $-7,038) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 11/50 | $2,310 | $1,758 | 42% | 66% | +$467 | -$5,249 | 24.2% | $-8,105 (vs do-nothing $-4,444) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.