50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.31 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,071/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $719/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,575 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 48 × $14 | 76% | $2,057 | $-330 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 42 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 87% | 26% | $168 | $720 | -$1,337 | $15,821 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $14.50 9.5% OTM over spot $13.24 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 7d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 88% EV / mo $-104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.7-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,819 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,276 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 72% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 587 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $14.50): -$15,821 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$622 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,443 (+$8,132 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,885 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,558, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,478, position total $-17,862 (+$6,712 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.7% | 76% | 49% | $320 | $1,371 | -$686 | $13,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 5.7% OTM over spot $13.24 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $320 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,371/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 79% EV / mo $-241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.5-5.6] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-125 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$712 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,121 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$13,462 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$1,399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,861 (+$9,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,885 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,976, the opportunity cost of earning $1,371/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,296, position total $-18,650 (+$5,924 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.7% | 76% | 36% | $480 | $2,057 | — | $20,194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 5.7% OTM over spot $13.24 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $480 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,057/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $14.11) 79% EV / mo $-361 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.0-5.1] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~11.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,416 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,067 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 73% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,080 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$20,194 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$155 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,349 (+$4,226 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,885 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,464, the opportunity cost of earning $2,057/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,944, position total $-20,346 (+$4,228 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 61% | 81% | $960 | $4,114 | +$2,057 | $18,268 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $13.50 2.0% OTM over spot $13.24 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.25 mid) = $960 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,114/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 69% EV / mo $-357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [2.0-5.3] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~23.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,096 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$246 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,934 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.31: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.31, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $13.50): -$18,268 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17.50): -$777 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,045 (+$5,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,885 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,160, the opportunity cost of earning $4,114/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.13 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,560, position total $-20,938 (+$3,636 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.970 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,575 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,885
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 48/50 | $2,057 | $1,346 | 76% | 79% | $-361 | -$20,194 | 93.3% | $-20,349 (vs do-nothing $-16,464) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 44/50 | $2,074 | $1,381 | 70% | 75% | $-235 | -$17,983 | 83.1% | $-18,449 (vs do-nothing $-14,564) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 45/50 | $2,057 | $1,359 | 68% | 73% | $-207 | -$17,942 | 82.9% | $-18,330 (vs do-nothing $-14,445) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 20/50 | $2,057 | $1,466 | 61% | 69% | $-178 | -$9,134 | 42.2% | $-11,465 (vs do-nothing $-7,580) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 25/50 | $2,089 | $1,477 | 59% | 68% | $-121 | -$11,043 | 51.0% | $-12,985 (vs do-nothing $-9,100) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 28/50 | $2,040 | $1,415 | 58% | 68% | $-81 | -$12,032 | 55.6% | $-13,741 (vs do-nothing $-9,856) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 20/50 | $2,114 | $1,523 | 48% | 63% | $-77 | -$9,134 | 42.2% | $-11,465 (vs do-nothing $-7,580) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 16/50 | $2,126 | $1,552 | 46% | 63% | $-107 | -$7,499 | 34.6% | $-10,141 (vs do-nothing $-6,256) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 10/50 | $2,100 | $1,552 | 43% | 61% | $-51 | -$4,817 | 22.2% | $-7,925 (vs do-nothing $-4,040) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.