50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,339/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $719/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,575 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 24 × $13.50 | 65% | $2,263 | $659 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.9% | 93% | 15% | $168 | $720 | -$1,543 | $15,632 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $14.50 9.9% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 7d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 93% EV / mo +$454 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.7-6.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 30% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,211 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,186 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $14.50): -$15,632 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$586 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,218 (+$8,357 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,558, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,520, position total $-17,638 (+$6,937 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 38 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 82% | 36% | $342 | $1,466 | -$797 | $15,854 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 6.1% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $342 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,466/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 85% EV / mo +$539 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.2-5.8] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~8.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,078 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$797 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$15,854 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$878 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,732 (+$7,843 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,072, the opportunity cost of earning $1,466/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,990, position total $-19,096 (+$5,479 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 65% | 56% | $528 | $2,263 | — | $10,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $528 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,263/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 74% EV / mo +$510 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.5-5.7] median · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~22.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,511 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$139 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,683 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$10,901 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17.50): -$1,903 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,804 (+$11,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,144, the opportunity cost of earning $2,263/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,408, position total $-18,472 (+$6,103 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 65% | 72% | $1,034 | $4,431 | +$2,169 | $21,347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $1,034 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,431/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $13.73) 74% EV / mo +$999 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.6-6.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~22.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,015 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$272 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,711 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,575 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,575 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $13.50): -$21,347 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17.50): -$220 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,567 (+$3,008 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,907, the opportunity cost of earning $4,431/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,674, position total $-21,807 (+$2,768 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.970 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,575 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,660
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 49/50 | $2,205 | $1,490 | 75% | 80% | +$714 | -$19,855 | 91.7% | $-19,928 (vs do-nothing $-16,268) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 24/50 | $2,263 | $1,655 | 65% | 74% | +$510 | -$10,901 | 50.4% | $-12,804 (vs do-nothing $-9,144) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 28/50 | $2,220 | $1,595 | 61% | 72% | +$499 | -$12,298 | 56.8% | $-13,908 (vs do-nothing $-10,248) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 32/50 | $2,194 | $1,552 | 60% | 72% | +$464 | -$13,702 | 63.3% | $-15,020 (vs do-nothing $-11,360) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.73 | 21/50 | $2,190 | $1,595 | 47% | 66% | +$358 | -$9,517 | 44.0% | $-11,640 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 17/50 | $2,186 | $1,608 | 46% | 65% | +$257 | -$7,925 | 36.6% | $-10,341 (vs do-nothing $-6,681) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 12/50 | $2,366 | $1,809 | 42% | 64% | +$343 | -$5,762 | 26.6% | $-8,544 (vs do-nothing $-4,884) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.