50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.97 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,179/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $811/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 24 × $13.50 | 64% | $2,160 | $446 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 48 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 9.8% | 92% | 15% | $192 | $823 | -$1,337 | $16,453 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14.50 9.8% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $192 credit for the 7d cycle → $823/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 93% EV / mo +$486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [1.8-6.0] median · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,454 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,419 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,100 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14.50): -$16,453 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$88 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,541 (+$6,559 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,352, the opportunity cost of earning $823/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,880, position total $-16,575 (+$6,525 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 36 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 82% | 37% | $324 | $1,389 | -$771 | $13,960 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $14 6.1% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $324 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,389/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 84% EV / mo +$440 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.6] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-8 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$801 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 874 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,100 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $14): -$13,960 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17.50): -$613 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,573 (+$8,527 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,384, the opportunity cost of earning $1,389/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,780, position total $-17,439 (+$5,661 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 24 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 64% | 57% | $504 | $2,160 | — | $10,219 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $504 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,160/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 73% EV / mo +$329 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.3-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~22.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $451 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$193 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,721 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,100 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $13.50): -$10,219 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17.50): -$1,138 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,357 (+$11,743 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,168, the opportunity cost of earning $2,160/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,432, position total $-17,055 (+$6,045 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 47 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.3% | 64% | 73% | $987 | $4,230 | +$2,070 | $20,012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $13.50 2.3% OTM over spot $13.20 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $987 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,230/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 73% EV / mo +$644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.2-6.0] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~21.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,118 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$378 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,740 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.97: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.97, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,100 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $13.50): -$20,012 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17.50): -$131 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,143 (+$2,957 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,189 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,954, the opportunity cost of earning $4,230/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,721, position total $-20,413 (+$2,687 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.969 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,100 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,189
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 49/50 | $2,100 | $1,293 | 75% | 79% | +$523 | -$18,462 | 85.3% | $-18,506 (vs do-nothing $-16,317) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 49/50 | $2,100 | $1,293 | 72% | 78% | +$533 | -$17,972 | 83.0% | $-18,016 (vs do-nothing $-15,827) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 24/50 | $2,160 | $1,460 | 64% | 73% | +$329 | -$10,219 | 47.2% | $-11,357 (vs do-nothing $-9,168) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 28/50 | $2,160 | $1,443 | 61% | 72% | +$375 | -$11,502 | 53.1% | $-12,465 (vs do-nothing $-10,276) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 31/50 | $2,126 | $1,396 | 60% | 71% | +$415 | -$12,362 | 57.1% | $-13,194 (vs do-nothing $-11,005) |
| $13 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 21/50 | $2,100 | $1,413 | 47% | 66% | +$213 | -$8,962 | 41.4% | $-10,232 (vs do-nothing $-8,043) |
| $13 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 17/50 | $2,149 | $1,479 | 46% | 65% | +$217 | -$7,442 | 34.4% | $-8,887 (vs do-nothing $-6,698) |
| $13 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 11/50 | $2,169 | $1,524 | 42% | 64% | +$237 | -$4,959 | 22.9% | $-6,666 (vs do-nothing $-4,477) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.