50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $3,857/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $811/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 50 × $14 | 78% | $1,929 | $339 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 48 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 8.7% | 90% | 20% | $192 | $823 | -$1,106 | $16,271 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14.50 8.7% OTM over spot $13.34 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $192 credit for the 7d cycle → $823/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 91% EV / mo +$303 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.1-6.2] median · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,823 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$992 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.19–$0.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 365 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.01 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,238 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14.50): -$16,271 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$80 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,213 (+$5,887 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,352, the opportunity cost of earning $823/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,880, position total $-17,253 (+$5,847 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 33 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.9% | 78% | 44% | $297 | $1,273 | -$656 | $12,672 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $14 4.9% OTM over spot $13.34 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $297 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,273/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 81% EV / mo +$197 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.0-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~11.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-665 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$459 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 943 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.01 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,238 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $14): -$12,672 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $17.50): -$680 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,213 (+$8,887 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,352, the opportunity cost of earning $1,273/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,465, position total $-17,793 (+$5,307 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 50 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.9% | 78% | 32% | $450 | $1,929 | — | $19,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14 4.9% OTM over spot $13.34 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.10 mid) = $450 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.10) 81% EV / mo +$299 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~11.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,040 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$696 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 971 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.01 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,238 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14): -$19,199 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,061 (+$3,039 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,929/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,250, position total $-19,629 (+$3,471 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.2% | 59% | 84% | $903 | $3,870 | +$1,941 | $18,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $13.50 1.2% OTM over spot $13.34 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.22 mid) = $903 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,870/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 68% EV / mo $-68 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-5.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~28.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,256 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,988 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.01 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.97 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,238 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $13.50): -$18,145 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17.50): -$280 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,287 (+$3,813 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,861 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,426, the opportunity cost of earning $3,870/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.14 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,149, position total $-20,507 (+$2,593 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.969 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,238 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,861
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 50/50 | $1,929 | $1,117 | 78% | 81% | +$299 | -$19,199 | 88.7% | $-20,061 (vs do-nothing $-17,200) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 45/50 | $1,929 | $1,139 | 72% | 77% | +$226 | -$16,784 | 77.5% | $-17,846 (vs do-nothing $-14,985) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 45/50 | $1,929 | $1,139 | 68% | 75% | +$211 | -$16,334 | 75.4% | $-17,396 (vs do-nothing $-14,535) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 22/50 | $1,980 | $1,289 | 59% | 68% | $-35 | -$9,284 | 42.9% | $-11,265 (vs do-nothing $-8,404) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 25/50 | $1,929 | $1,224 | 57% | 68% | +$70 | -$10,175 | 47.0% | $-12,036 (vs do-nothing $-9,175) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.48 | 29/50 | $1,989 | $1,267 | 56% | 68% | +$127 | -$11,455 | 52.9% | $-13,156 (vs do-nothing $-10,295) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.