50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.08 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,554/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $673/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,675 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 32 × $14 | 68% | $2,331 | $386 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 27 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.4% | 84% | 32% | $162 | $694 | -$1,637 | $9,492 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $14.50 6.4% OTM over spot $13.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.07 mid) = $162 credit for the 7d cycle → $694/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.57) 86% EV / mo +$153 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.3-5.8] median · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,133 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$607 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.28 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 700 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,964 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $14.50): -$9,492 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$1,255 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,458 (+$11,217 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,019, the opportunity cost of earning $694/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 21 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.8% | 68% | 66% | $357 | $1,530 | -$801 | $8,202 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $14 2.8% OTM over spot $13.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $357 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $14.18) 74% EV / mo +$210 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.4-5.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $307 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$199 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.37/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.32–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,526 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,964 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $14): -$8,202 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (29 × $17.50): -$1,582 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,495 (+$12,180 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,056, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 32 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.8% | 68% | 54% | $544 | $2,331 | — | $12,498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 2.8% OTM over spot $13.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $544 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,331/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $14.18) 74% EV / mo +$320 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.8-5.8] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~18.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,103 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$303 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.37/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.32–$0.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,607 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $14.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,964 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$12,498 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$982 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,191 (+$8,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,752, the opportunity cost of earning $2,331/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 28 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.9% | 45% | 99+% | $1,092 | $4,680 | +$2,349 | $11,720 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $13.50 0.9% ITM over spot $13.62 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.41 mid) = $1,092 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 45% Breach risk 55% POP (stays ≤ $13.90) 64% EV / mo +$376 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$405 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.08: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $13.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.08, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,964 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $13.50): -$11,720 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $17.50): -$1,200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,631 (+$9,044 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,192, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.987 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,964 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,439
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 32/50 | $2,331 | $1,735 | 68% | 74% | +$320 | -$12,498 | 57.7% | $-14,191 (vs do-nothing $-10,752) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 34/50 | $2,331 | $1,727 | 64% | 73% | +$498 | -$12,769 | 59.0% | $-14,353 (vs do-nothing $-10,914) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 37/50 | $2,326 | $1,708 | 62% | 72% | +$494 | -$13,452 | 62.1% | $-14,872 (vs do-nothing $-11,433) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 24/50 | $2,297 | $1,735 | 49% | 66% | +$305 | -$9,373 | 43.3% | $-11,503 (vs do-nothing $-8,064) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 20/50 | $2,357 | $1,812 | 48% | 66% | +$299 | -$8,051 | 37.2% | $-10,399 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 14/50 | $2,340 | $1,821 | 45% | 64% | +$188 | -$5,860 | 27.1% | $-8,535 (vs do-nothing $-5,096) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.