50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.93 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,036/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $673/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,675 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 46 × $14 | 75% | $2,563 | $434 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 32 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.6% | 88% | 24% | $160 | $686 | -$1,877 | $10,827 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14.50 7.6% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $160 credit for the 7d cycle → $686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $14.55) 89% EV / mo +$278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.6] median · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,160 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$767 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,934 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14.50): -$10,827 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$726 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,295 (+$10,380 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,536, the opportunity cost of earning $686/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 30 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 75% | 51% | $390 | $1,671 | -$891 | $11,411 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $390 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,671/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 80% EV / mo +$503 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.1-5.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.5 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~13.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,390 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$416 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,175 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,934 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $14): -$11,411 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$807 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,959 (+$9,716 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,671/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 75% | 40% | $598 | $2,563 | — | $17,496 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $598 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,563/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 80% EV / mo +$771 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.4] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,128 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$639 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,205 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,934 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $14): -$17,496 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$161 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,399 (+$4,276 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,640, the opportunity cost of earning $2,563/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 52% | 98% | $1,178 | $5,049 | +$2,486 | $15,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $13.50 0.1% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $1,178 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,049/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $13.82) 67% EV / mo +$730 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.4-5.7] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~40.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,742 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$233 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,321 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $13.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,934 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $13.50): -$15,669 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$484 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,895 (+$5,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,136, the opportunity cost of earning $5,049/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.985 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,934 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,759
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 46/50 | $2,563 | $1,907 | 75% | 80% | +$771 | -$17,496 | 80.8% | $-18,399 (vs do-nothing $-15,640) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 46/50 | $2,563 | $1,907 | 69% | 76% | +$697 | -$16,898 | 78.1% | $-17,801 (vs do-nothing $-15,042) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 47/50 | $2,551 | $1,891 | 66% | 75% | +$747 | -$16,701 | 77.1% | $-17,564 (vs do-nothing $-14,805) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 30/50 | $2,529 | $1,941 | 53% | 69% | +$530 | -$11,531 | 53.3% | $-13,079 (vs do-nothing $-10,320) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 25/50 | $2,518 | $1,952 | 52% | 67% | +$309 | -$9,909 | 45.8% | $-11,659 (vs do-nothing $-8,900) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 19/50 | $2,524 | $1,984 | 52% | 67% | +$365 | -$7,835 | 36.2% | $-9,827 (vs do-nothing $-7,068) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.