50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $673/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,675 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 48 × $14 | 75% | $2,674 | $491 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 32 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 7.5% | 88% | 24% | $160 | $686 | -$1,989 | $10,850 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14.50 7.5% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $160 credit for the 7d cycle → $686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $14.55) 90% EV / mo +$289 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.3-5.5] median · 33% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~5.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,170 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$786 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 463 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,922 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14.50): -$10,850 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$739 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,342 (+$10,333 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,536, the opportunity cost of earning $686/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.8% | 75% | 52% | $416 | $1,783 | -$891 | $12,194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 3.8% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $416 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,783/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 80% EV / mo +$528 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.3-6.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.0 mo) · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~13.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,737 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$462 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,240 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,922 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$12,194 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$739 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,686 (+$8,989 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,880, the opportunity cost of earning $1,783/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $14 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.8% | 75% | 39% | $624 | $2,674 | — | $18,291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 3.8% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.14 mid) = $624 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,674/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 80% EV / mo +$792 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.7-5.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~13.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,305 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$693 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,161 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,922 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$18,291 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$82 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,126 (+$3,549 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,320, the opportunity cost of earning $2,674/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 52% | 98% | $1,254 | $5,374 | +$2,700 | $15,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $13.50 0.1% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.34 mid) = $1,254 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,374/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 68% EV / mo +$979 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.3-5.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~40.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,183 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$290 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.36/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,335 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,675 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,922 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $13.50): -$15,620 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$493 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,866 (+$5,809 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,806 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,060, the opportunity cost of earning $5,374/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.984 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,922 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,806
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 48/50 | $2,674 | $2,009 | 75% | 80% | +$792 | -$18,291 | 84.5% | $-19,126 (vs do-nothing $-16,320) |
| $14 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 46/50 | $2,661 | $2,005 | 68% | 75% | +$603 | -$16,885 | 78.0% | $-17,802 (vs do-nothing $-14,996) |
| $14 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 48/50 | $2,674 | $2,009 | 65% | 74% | +$606 | -$17,043 | 78.7% | $-17,878 (vs do-nothing $-15,072) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 31/50 | $2,701 | $2,109 | 53% | 68% | +$436 | -$11,875 | 54.8% | $-13,408 (vs do-nothing $-10,602) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/50 | $2,625 | $2,059 | 52% | 68% | +$417 | -$9,877 | 45.6% | $-11,656 (vs do-nothing $-8,850) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 19/50 | $2,687 | $2,147 | 52% | 68% | +$489 | -$7,810 | 36.1% | $-9,836 (vs do-nothing $-7,030) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.