50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,655/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $665/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 38 × $14 | 74% | $2,850 | $824 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 27 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.2% | 89% | 21% | $135 | $675 | -$2,175 | $9,090 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $14.50 7.2% OTM over spot $13.53 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.06 mid) = $135 credit for the 6d cycle → $675/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 91% EV / mo +$368 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.4-5.3] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-629 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$645 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 440 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,692 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $14.50): -$9,090 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,687 (+$11,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,641 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,046, the opportunity cost of earning $675/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.5% | 74% | 53% | $375 | $1,875 | -$975 | $9,416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 3.5% OTM over spot $13.53 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.15 mid) = $375 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,875/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 80% EV / mo +$745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.2-6.1] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~15.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,315 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$296 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,238 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,692 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$9,416 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (25 × $17.50): -$966 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,091 (+$11,309 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,641 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,450, the opportunity cost of earning $1,875/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.5% | 74% | 40% | $570 | $2,850 | — | $14,313 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 3.5% OTM over spot $13.53 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.15 mid) = $570 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $14.15) 80% EV / mo +$1,133 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~15.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,241 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$450 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,192 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $14.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,692 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$14,313 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$464 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,485 (+$6,915 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,641 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,844, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 33 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.2% | 50% | 99+% | $1,155 | $5,775 | +$2,925 | $13,420 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $13.50 0.2% ITM over spot $13.53 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.36 mid) = $1,155 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $13.86) 67% EV / mo +$1,198 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$335 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.99 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,692 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $13.50): -$13,420 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (17 × $17.50): -$657 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,785 (+$7,615 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,641 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,144, the opportunity cost of earning $5,775/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.989 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,692 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,641
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.15 | 38/50 | $2,850 | $2,239 | 74% | 80% | +$1,133 | -$14,313 | 66.1% | $-15,485 (vs do-nothing $-12,844) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 43/50 | $2,878 | $2,244 | 67% | 75% | +$763 | -$15,594 | 72.0% | $-16,573 (vs do-nothing $-13,932) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 46/50 | $2,829 | $2,182 | 64% | 74% | +$742 | -$16,130 | 74.5% | $-16,993 (vs do-nothing $-14,352) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 30/50 | $2,880 | $2,305 | 51% | 68% | +$543 | -$11,330 | 52.3% | $-12,811 (vs do-nothing $-10,170) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 24/50 | $2,880 | $2,332 | 51% | 68% | +$576 | -$9,352 | 43.2% | $-11,065 (vs do-nothing $-8,424) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 17/50 | $2,975 | $2,459 | 50% | 67% | +$617 | -$6,913 | 31.9% | $-8,897 (vs do-nothing $-6,256) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.