50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.91 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,654/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $665/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 48 × $14 | 75% | $2,880 | $474 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 34 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 7.5% | 90% | 20% | $136 | $680 | -$2,200 | $11,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14.50 7.5% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid) = $136 credit for the 6d cycle → $680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 91% EV / mo +$314 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-933 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$839 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,767 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14.50): -$11,455 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17.50): -$607 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,820 (+$9,705 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,166, the opportunity cost of earning $680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,074, position total $-16,359 (+$6,166 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.8% | 75% | 51% | $384 | $1,920 | -$960 | $12,125 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 3.8% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $384 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 80% EV / mo +$523 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.0-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~14.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,268 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$468 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,129 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,767 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$12,125 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$682 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,566 (+$8,959 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,912, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,296, position total $-17,575 (+$4,950 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.8% | 75% | 38% | $576 | $2,880 | — | $18,188 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 3.8% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $576 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 80% EV / mo +$784 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.2-5.9] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~14.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,062 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$702 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,129 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,767 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$18,188 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$76 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,022 (+$3,503 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,368, the opportunity cost of earning $2,880/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,944, position total $-19,271 (+$3,254 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 0.1% | 52% | 98% | $1,155 | $5,775 | +$2,895 | $14,277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $13.50 0.1% OTM over spot $13.48 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.34 mid) = $1,155 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,775/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 68% EV / mo +$1,260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.2-5.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~42.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,142 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$291 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,245 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,767 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $13.50): -$14,277 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$569 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,604 (+$6,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,950, the opportunity cost of earning $5,775/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,620, position total $-18,908 (+$3,617 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.984 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,767 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,654
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 48/50 | $2,880 | $2,224 | 75% | 80% | +$784 | -$18,188 | 84.0% | $-19,022 (vs do-nothing $-16,368) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 46/50 | $2,866 | $2,219 | 69% | 77% | +$920 | -$16,740 | 77.3% | $-17,650 (vs do-nothing $-14,996) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 49/50 | $2,866 | $2,206 | 66% | 75% | +$833 | -$17,244 | 79.6% | $-18,040 (vs do-nothing $-15,386) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 31/50 | $2,836 | $2,257 | 53% | 68% | +$563 | -$11,777 | 54.4% | $-13,256 (vs do-nothing $-10,602) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/50 | $2,827 | $2,274 | 52% | 68% | +$610 | -$9,798 | 45.3% | $-11,504 (vs do-nothing $-8,850) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 18/50 | $2,970 | $2,449 | 52% | 68% | +$648 | -$7,342 | 33.9% | $-9,314 (vs do-nothing $-6,660) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.