50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.04 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,857/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $665/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,350 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 38 × $14 | 73% | $2,470 | $580 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 34 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.9% | 90% | 21% | $136 | $680 | -$1,790 | $11,885 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14.50 6.9% OTM over spot $13.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid) = $136 credit for the 6d cycle → $680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 91% EV / mo +$321 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [3.0-6.4] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-932 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$733 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.36/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,100 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14.50): -$11,885 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17.50): -$809 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,945 (+$7,405 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,166, the opportunity cost of earning $680/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,074, position total $-17,262 (+$5,088 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 25 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.2% | 73% | 54% | $325 | $1,625 | -$845 | $9,764 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14 3.2% OTM over spot $13.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $325 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 79% EV / mo +$517 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.0-6.6] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo) · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~17.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,465 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$268 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.34/sh now → $0.24 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,291 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,100 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14): -$9,764 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (25 × $17.50): -$1,264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,279 (+$9,071 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,625/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,550, position total $-17,711 (+$4,639 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $14 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.2% | 73% | 42% | $494 | $2,470 | — | $14,842 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 3.2% OTM over spot $13.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $494 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,470/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 79% EV / mo +$786 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.1 mo [2.6-5.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.3 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~16.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,000 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$407 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.34/sh now → $0.24 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,258 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,100 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$14,842 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$607 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,699 (+$4,651 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,920, the opportunity cost of earning $2,470/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,876, position total $-19,076 (+$3,274 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 30 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.5% | 47% | 99+% | $990 | $4,950 | +$2,480 | $12,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $13.50 0.5% ITM over spot $13.57 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.34 mid) = $990 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 47% Breach risk 53% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 65% EV / mo +$556 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$332 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.04, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,100 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $13.50): -$12,617 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$1,011 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,879 (+$6,471 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,779 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,100, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,960, position total $-19,136 (+$3,214 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$20,100 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,779
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 38/50 | $2,470 | $1,859 | 73% | 79% | +$786 | -$14,842 | 68.6% | $-17,699 (vs do-nothing $-12,920) |
| $14 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 39/50 | $2,430 | $1,815 | 66% | 74% | +$515 | -$14,686 | 67.8% | $-17,493 (vs do-nothing $-12,714) |
| $14 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 42/50 | $2,457 | $1,828 | 64% | 73% | +$488 | -$15,312 | 70.7% | $-17,967 (vs do-nothing $-13,188) |
| $13.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 27/50 | $2,511 | $1,950 | 50% | 67% | +$345 | -$10,572 | 48.8% | $-13,986 (vs do-nothing $-9,207) |
| $13.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 22/50 | $2,488 | $1,949 | 49% | 66% | +$305 | -$8,901 | 41.1% | $-12,567 (vs do-nothing $-7,788) |
| $13.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 15/50 | $2,475 | $1,968 | 47% | 65% | +$278 | -$6,309 | 29.1% | $-10,329 (vs do-nothing $-5,550) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.