50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.54 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,682/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $679/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 35 × $14 | 85% | $3,413 | $1,581 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 46 × $14 | 73% | $3,387 | $731 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $15 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.9% | 99% | 2% | $92 | $690 | -$2,723 | $11,571 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $15 11.9% OTM over spot $13.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $92 credit for the 4d cycle → $690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.03) 99% EV / mo +$666 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.4 mo [2.2-5.5] median · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,227 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,651 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $15.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $15): -$11,571 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,909 (+$6,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,546, the opportunity cost of earning $690/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.1% | 96% | 7% | $200 | $1,500 | -$1,913 | $14,977 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 8.1% OTM over spot $13.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $200 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 97% EV / mo +$1,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.5-6.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-487 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,562 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 167 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$14,977 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,313 (+$3,587 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,950, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.4% | 85% | 31% | $299 | $2,243 | -$1,170 | $7,832 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14 4.4% OTM over spot $13.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $299 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,243/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 89% EV / mo +$1,733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.4-5.8] median · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~11.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,772 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$453 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 669 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14): -$7,832 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $17.50): -$15 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,183 (+$10,717 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,820, the opportunity cost of earning $2,243/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.4% | 85% | 21% | $455 | $3,413 | — | $11,919 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14 4.4% OTM over spot $13.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $455 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,413/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 89% EV / mo +$2,638 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.4-6.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~11.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,363 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$689 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 640 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14): -$11,919 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,263 (+$6,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,413/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 0.7% | 57% | 88% | $891 | $6,682 | +$3,270 | $10,005 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $13.50 0.7% OTM over spot $13.41 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.34 mid) = $891 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 76% EV / mo +$3,309 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.3-6.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.4 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~41.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,176 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$74 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 94% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.30 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,927 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $13.50): -$10,005 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,353 (+$8,547 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,990, the opportunity cost of earning $6,682/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 36 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 93% | 14% | $252 | $687 | -$2,700 | $8,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 11.9% OTM over spot $13.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $252 credit for the 11d cycle → $687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 94% EV / mo +$509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.0-5.4] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-697 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,606 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 333 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$8,875 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17.50): -$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,219 (+$9,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,856, the opportunity cost of earning $687/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.9% | 93% | 14% | $350 | $955 | -$2,433 | $12,327 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 11.9% OTM over spot $13.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $350 credit for the 11d cycle → $955/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 94% EV / mo +$707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-6.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 35% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-10 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,231 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 54% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$12,327 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,663 (+$6,237 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,300, the opportunity cost of earning $955/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 30 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 4.4% | 73% | 56% | $810 | $2,209 | -$1,178 | $9,796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $14 4.4% OTM over spot $13.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $810 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,209/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 80% EV / mo +$1,085 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.3-5.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.9 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,862 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$531 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,400 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $14): -$9,796 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$11 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,143 (+$8,757 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,780, the opportunity cost of earning $2,209/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 4.4% | 73% | 47% | $1,242 | $3,387 | — | $15,021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $14 4.4% OTM over spot $13.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $1,242 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,387/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 80% EV / mo +$1,663 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.3-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 29% without) · ~10.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,065 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$814 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,421 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $14): -$15,021 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,359 (+$3,541 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,996, the opportunity cost of earning $3,387/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.7% | 55% | 93% | $2,450 | $6,682 | +$3,295 | $17,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 0.7% OTM over spot $13.41 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.51 mid) = $2,450 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $14.01) 72% EV / mo +$2,354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.0-5.6] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~25.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,795 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$379 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,303 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.54: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $14.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.54, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,564 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$17,727 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,063 (+$837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,363 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,700, the opportunity cost of earning $6,682/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 5 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$18,564 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,363
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 35/50 | $3,413 | $2,809 | 85% | 89% | +$2,638 | -$11,919 | 55.1% | $-14,263 (vs do-nothing $-11,900) |
| $14 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 46/50 | $3,387 | $2,728 | 73% | 80% | +$1,663 | -$15,021 | 69.4% | $-17,359 (vs do-nothing $-14,996) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 14/50 | $3,465 | $2,966 | 57% | 76% | +$1,716 | -$5,188 | 24.0% | $-7,543 (vs do-nothing $-5,180) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/50 | $3,341 | $2,787 | 55% | 72% | +$1,177 | -$8,864 | 40.9% | $-11,213 (vs do-nothing $-8,850) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 33/50 | $3,410 | $2,816 | 55% | 71% | +$1,059 | -$11,271 | 52.1% | $-13,616 (vs do-nothing $-11,253) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.