50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.58 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $6,682/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $679/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 35 × $14 | 82% | $3,413 | $1,551 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 46 × $14 | 71% | $3,387 | $771 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 46 × $15 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.4% | 99% | 3% | $92 | $690 | -$2,723 | $11,792 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $15 11.4% OTM over spot $13.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $92 credit for the 4d cycle → $690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $15.03) 99% EV / mo +$656 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.0-5.9] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,746 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,430 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $15.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $15): -$11,792 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,475 (+$8,425 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,546, the opportunity cost of earning $690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$598, position total $-13,220 (+$7,680 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.6% | 96% | 9% | $200 | $1,500 | -$1,913 | $15,217 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 7.6% OTM over spot $13.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $200 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 96% EV / mo +$1,320 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.0-5.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $437 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,339 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 206 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$15,217 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,879 (+$5,021 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,950, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,050, position total $-15,684 (+$5,216 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 23 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.9% | 82% | 36% | $299 | $2,243 | -$1,170 | $7,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $299 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,243/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 87% EV / mo +$1,592 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.4-5.8] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~13.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,565 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$358 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 783 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $14): -$7,943 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $17.50): -$144 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,749 (+$12,151 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,820, the opportunity cost of earning $2,243/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,346, position total $-14,899 (+$6,001 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.9% | 82% | 25% | $455 | $3,413 | — | $12,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.14 mid) = $455 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,413/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.13) 87% EV / mo +$2,423 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.4-5.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~12.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,494 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$545 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.40/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.30–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 745 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $14.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14): -$12,087 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$80 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,829 (+$8,071 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,413/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,570, position total $-16,159 (+$4,741 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 0.2% | 53% | 96% | $891 | $6,682 | +$3,270 | $10,134 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $13.50 0.2% OTM over spot $13.47 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.34 mid) = $891 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $13.84) 73% EV / mo +$2,747 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.3-6.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~46.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,335 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 70% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$178 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.37/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,101 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $13.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $13.50): -$10,134 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$123 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,919 (+$9,981 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,990, the opportunity cost of earning $6,682/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,564, position total $-16,129 (+$4,771 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 36 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.4% | 92% | 16% | $252 | $687 | -$2,700 | $9,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 11.4% OTM over spot $13.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $252 credit for the 11d cycle → $687/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 93% EV / mo +$478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [1.9-5.2] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-722 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,464 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 384 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$9,048 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17.50): -$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,785 (+$11,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,856, the opportunity cost of earning $687/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$288, position total $-12,880 (+$8,020 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 11d | 11.4% | 92% | 16% | $350 | $955 | -$2,433 | $12,567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 11.4% OTM over spot $13.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.08 mid) = $350 credit for the 11d cycle → $955/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 93% EV / mo +$664 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,033 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.67/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$12,567 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,229 (+$7,671 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,300, the opportunity cost of earning $955/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$400, position total $-13,034 (+$7,866 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 30 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 3.9% | 71% | 60% | $810 | $2,209 | -$1,178 | $9,940 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $810 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,209/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 79% EV / mo +$949 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-6.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,473 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$428 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,510 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $14): -$9,940 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$107 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,709 (+$10,191 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,780, the opportunity cost of earning $2,209/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,640, position total $-15,214 (+$5,686 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 3.9% | 71% | 51% | $1,242 | $3,387 | — | $15,242 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $14 3.9% OTM over spot $13.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.28 mid) = $1,242 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,387/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $14.28) 79% EV / mo +$1,454 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [1.9-4.7] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 32% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,085 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$656 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,516 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $14): -$15,242 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$21 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,925 (+$4,975 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,996, the opportunity cost of earning $3,387/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,048, position total $-16,670 (+$4,230 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.2% | 53% | 98% | $2,450 | $6,682 | +$3,295 | $17,967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 0.2% OTM over spot $13.47 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.51 mid) = $2,450 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $14.01) 70% EV / mo +$1,955 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [1.7-5.0] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~29.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,869 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$538 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,420 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $14.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.11 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,238 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$17,967 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,629 (+$2,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-929 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,700, the opportunity cost of earning $6,682/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.15 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,800, position total $-18,434 (+$2,466 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 5 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.984 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,238 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-929
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 35/50 | $3,413 | $2,809 | 82% | 87% | +$2,423 | -$12,087 | 55.8% | $-12,829 (vs do-nothing $-11,900) |
| $14 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 46/50 | $3,387 | $2,728 | 71% | 79% | +$1,454 | -$15,242 | 70.4% | $-15,925 (vs do-nothing $-14,996) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 33/50 | $3,410 | $2,816 | 53% | 70% | +$894 | -$11,429 | 52.8% | $-12,182 (vs do-nothing $-11,253) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 14/50 | $3,465 | $2,966 | 53% | 73% | +$1,425 | -$5,255 | 24.3% | $-6,109 (vs do-nothing $-5,180) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/50 | $3,341 | $2,787 | 53% | 70% | +$978 | -$8,984 | 41.5% | $-9,779 (vs do-nothing $-8,850) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.