50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.03 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,182/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $695/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-23,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $13.50 | 59% | $2,700 | $988 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 48 × $14 | 73% | $2,618 | $421 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 47 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.5% | 95% | 10% | $94 | $705 | -$1,995 | $16,484 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 47 × $14.50 8.5% OTM over spot $13.36 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.03 mid) = $94 credit for the 4d cycle → $705/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $14.53) 95% EV / mo +$464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.0 mo [2.2-6.1] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 35% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-869 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,029 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 47 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.34/sh now → $0.24 mid-life (likely $0.20–$0.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 199 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $14.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (47 × $14.50): -$16,484 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $17.50): -$149 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,560 (+$6,190 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,147, the opportunity cost of earning $705/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,679, position total $-17,960 (+$5,790 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 39 × $14 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.8% | 83% | 35% | $234 | $1,755 | -$945 | $15,472 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $14 4.8% OTM over spot $13.36 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $234 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,755/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $14.07) 85% EV / mo +$520 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.7 mo [2.2-5.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~12.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,470 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$634 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 690 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $14): -$15,472 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17.50): -$547 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,946 (+$6,804 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,533, the opportunity cost of earning $1,755/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,017, position total $-19,274 (+$4,476 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 1.0% | 59% | 61% | $360 | $2,700 | — | $7,789 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $13.50 1.0% OTM over spot $13.36 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.21 mid) = $360 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $13.71) 70% EV / mo +$422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.1-5.9] median · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~39.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,389 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,840 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $13.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $13.50): -$7,789 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (32 × $17.50): -$1,591 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,307 (+$13,443 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,894, the opportunity cost of earning $2,700/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,502, position total $-17,696 (+$6,054 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 1.0% | 59% | 83% | $700 | $5,250 | +$2,550 | $15,145 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $13.50 1.0% OTM over spot $13.36 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.21 mid) = $700 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $13.71) 70% EV / mo +$821 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.0-5.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.1 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~37.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,127 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$24 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,809 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $13.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $13.50): -$15,145 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$746 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,818 (+$6,932 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,405, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,865, position total $-20,110 (+$3,640 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 26 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 8.5% | 84% | 32% | $260 | $709 | -$1,909 | $8,911 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $14.50 8.5% OTM over spot $13.36 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.11 mid) = $260 credit for the 11d cycle → $709/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 86% EV / mo +$241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,180 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$751 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.36–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 765 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $14.50): -$8,911 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17.50): -$1,193 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,031 (+$12,719 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,618, the opportunity cost of earning $709/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,274, position total $-16,492 (+$7,258 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 32 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 4.8% | 73% | 56% | $640 | $1,745 | -$873 | $12,247 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14 4.8% OTM over spot $13.36 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.21 mid) = $640 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,745/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.21) 78% EV / mo +$433 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.1-5.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 42% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~10.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $976 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$519 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,377 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14): -$12,247 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$895 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,069 (+$9,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,656, the opportunity cost of earning $1,745/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,848, position total $-18,084 (+$5,666 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 48 × $14 | 24 Jul | 11d | 4.8% | 73% | 46% | $960 | $2,618 | — | $18,371 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $14 4.8% OTM over spot $13.36 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.21 mid) = $960 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,618/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.21) 78% EV / mo +$650 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.3-5.6] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.4 mo) · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~10.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,062 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$779 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,390 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $14.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $14): -$18,371 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$99 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,397 (+$4,353 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,984, the opportunity cost of earning $2,618/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,272, position total $-19,556 (+$4,194 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 1.0% | 57% | 90% | $1,900 | $5,182 | +$2,564 | $20,736 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $13.50 1.0% OTM over spot $13.36 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.39 mid) = $1,900 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 57% Breach risk 43% POP (stays ≤ $13.89) 69% EV / mo +$805 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.1-5.3] median · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 33% without) · ~24.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,173 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$217 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.48/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,227 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $5 below CC-SS $18.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $13.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.15 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-23,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,823 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $13.50): -$20,736 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,663 (+$2,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,413 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,250, the opportunity cost of earning $5,182/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,050, position total $-21,340 (+$2,410 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 4 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.978 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,823 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,413
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 48/50 | $2,618 | $1,933 | 73% | 78% | +$650 | -$18,371 | 84.9% | $-19,397 (vs do-nothing $-15,984) |
| $13.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 18/50 | $2,700 | $2,165 | 59% | 70% | +$422 | -$7,789 | 36.0% | $-10,307 (vs do-nothing $-6,894) |
| $13.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 25/50 | $2,591 | $2,021 | 57% | 69% | +$402 | -$10,368 | 47.9% | $-12,538 (vs do-nothing $-9,125) |
| $13.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 32/50 | $2,667 | $2,062 | 56% | 69% | +$399 | -$12,887 | 59.5% | $-14,709 (vs do-nothing $-11,296) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.