50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.74 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,324/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $638/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,450 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 37 × $14 | 88% | $2,220 | $786 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 38 × $14 | 75% | $2,166 | $392 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 32 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 8.9% | 96% | 8% | $64 | $640 | -$1,580 | $10,291 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14.50 8.9% OTM over spot $13.32 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $64 credit for the 3d cycle → $640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.53) 96% EV / mo +$507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.3 mo [2.1-5.5] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-86 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$780 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.37/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 85 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $14.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14.50): -$10,291 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$371 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,496 (+$10,954 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,632, the opportunity cost of earning $640/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,824, position total $-15,556 (+$6,894 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 8.9% | 96% | 8% | $100 | $1,000 | -$1,220 | $16,080 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 8.9% OTM over spot $13.32 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid) = $100 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $14.53) 96% EV / mo +$793 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.9-5.0] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 36% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $882 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,219 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.37/sh now → $0.26 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $14.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$16,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,914 (+$5,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,050, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,850, position total $-16,636 (+$5,814 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 24 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.1% | 88% | 25% | $144 | $1,440 | -$780 | $8,823 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14 5.1% OTM over spot $13.32 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $144 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $14.06) 90% EV / mo +$945 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.7 mo) · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~10.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,942 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$446 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14): -$8,823 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17.50): -$536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,192 (+$12,258 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,328, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,472, position total $-16,180 (+$6,270 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $14 | 17 Jul | 3d | 5.1% | 88% | 16% | $222 | $2,220 | — | $13,601 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $14 5.1% OTM over spot $13.32 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $222 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $14.06) 90% EV / mo +$1,457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [2.2-5.2] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,914 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$687 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 473 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $14): -$13,601 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17.50): -$268 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,703 (+$7,747 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,839, the opportunity cost of earning $2,220/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,811, position total $-17,558 (+$4,892 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 22 × $13.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 1.4% | 63% | 76% | $440 | $4,400 | +$2,180 | $8,879 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $13.50 1.4% OTM over spot $13.32 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.21 mid) = $440 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $13.71) 75% EV / mo +$1,694 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.2 mo [1.9-5.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.4 mo) · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 39% without) · ~37.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,574 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$62 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,545 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $13.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $13.50): -$8,879 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 × $17.50): -$577 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,290 (+$12,160 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,426, the opportunity cost of earning $4,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,058, position total $-16,760 (+$5,690 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 24 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 8.9% | 87% | 27% | $216 | $648 | -$1,518 | $7,551 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14.50 8.9% OTM over spot $13.32 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.10 mid) = $216 credit for the 10d cycle → $648/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $14.60) 88% EV / mo +$312 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.9 mo [2.1-6.0] median · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 37% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-670 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$753 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 70% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 588 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $14.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14.50): -$7,551 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17.50): -$536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,920 (+$13,530 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,056, the opportunity cost of earning $648/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,200, position total $-14,908 (+$7,542 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 26 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 5.1% | 75% | 52% | $494 | $1,482 | -$684 | $9,220 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $14 5.1% OTM over spot $13.32 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $494 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,482/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.20) 80% EV / mo +$525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.2-5.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.8 mo) · 36% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 31% without) · ~9.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,238 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$484 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,251 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $14): -$9,220 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17.50): -$495 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,548 (+$11,902 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,684, the opportunity cost of earning $1,482/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,340, position total $-16,054 (+$6,396 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | 5.1% | 75% | 41% | $722 | $2,166 | — | $13,475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $14 5.1% OTM over spot $13.32 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $722 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,166/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $14.20) 80% EV / mo +$767 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.6 mo [2.0-5.8] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 43% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~9.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,006 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$707 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,241 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $14.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $14): -$13,475 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$247 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,556 (+$7,894 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,692, the opportunity cost of earning $2,166/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,420, position total $-17,170 (+$5,280 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 1.4% | 58% | 86% | $1,443 | $4,329 | +$2,163 | $15,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $13.50 1.4% OTM over spot $13.32 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.38 mid) = $1,443 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,329/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 58% Breach risk 42% POP (stays ≤ $13.88) 71% EV / mo +$1,001 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.8 mo [2.1-5.9] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (3.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 44% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 34% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,624 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$80 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,131 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $4 below CC-SS $17.74: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $13.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.74, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,617 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $13.50): -$15,078 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17.50): -$227 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,138 (+$6,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,864 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,274, the opportunity cost of earning $4,329/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.09 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,758, position total $-18,511 (+$3,939 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.979 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,617 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,864
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 37/50 | $2,220 | $1,651 | 88% | 90% | +$1,457 | -$13,601 | 62.8% | $-14,703 (vs do-nothing $-12,839) |
| $14 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 38/50 | $2,166 | $1,591 | 75% | 80% | +$767 | -$13,475 | 62.2% | $-14,556 (vs do-nothing $-12,692) |
| $14 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 41/50 | $2,171 | $1,580 | 71% | 78% | +$681 | -$14,088 | 65.1% | $-15,107 (vs do-nothing $-13,243) |
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.20 | 11/50 | $2,200 | $1,768 | 63% | 75% | +$847 | -$4,440 | 20.5% | $-6,077 (vs do-nothing $-4,213) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 20/50 | $2,220 | $1,741 | 58% | 71% | +$514 | -$7,732 | 35.7% | $-9,184 (vs do-nothing $-7,320) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 25/50 | $2,162 | $1,656 | 57% | 70% | +$464 | -$9,365 | 43.3% | $-10,714 (vs do-nothing $-8,850) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.