50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.95 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,456/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $559/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 21 × $14.50 | 73% | $2,310 | $752 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 28 × $14.50 | 64% | $2,268 | $438 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $15 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 90% | 20% | $57 | $570 | -$1,740 | $5,541 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $15 6.2% OTM over spot $14.12 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $57 credit for the 3d cycle → $570/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 91% EV / mo +$242 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.2] median · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $54 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$351 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.19–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $15): -$5,541 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (31 × $17.50): -$1,291 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,726 (+$11,874 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,750, the opportunity cost of earning $570/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 50 × $15 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.2% | 90% | 20% | $150 | $1,500 | -$810 | $14,582 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 6.2% OTM over spot $14.12 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 91% EV / mo +$638 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,653 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$923 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.19–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$14,582 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,476 (+$4,124 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,500, the opportunity cost of earning $1,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 21 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 2.7% | 73% | 37% | $231 | $2,310 | — | $7,007 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 21 × $14.50 2.7% OTM over spot $14.12 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $231 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,310/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 79% EV / mo +$750 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-5.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~23.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,306 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$190 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 21 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.20 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,111 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (21 × $14.50): -$7,007 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (29 × $17.50): -$1,208 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,108 (+$10,492 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,132, the opportunity cost of earning $2,310/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 2.7% | 73% | 54% | $451 | $4,510 | +$2,200 | $13,680 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $14.50 2.7% OTM over spot $14.12 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.12 mid) = $451 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,510/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 79% EV / mo +$1,464 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.6-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~21.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,278 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$370 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.20 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,085 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $14.50): -$13,680 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17.50): -$375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,948 (+$4,652 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,972, the opportunity cost of earning $4,510/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 32 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 9.7% | 88% | 24% | $192 | $576 | -$1,692 | $7,637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $15.50 9.7% OTM over spot $14.12 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.07 mid) = $192 credit for the 10d cycle → $576/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $15.57) 90% EV / mo +$191 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.5-4.8] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-454 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,126 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 515 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $16 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $15.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $15.50): -$7,637 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$750 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,280 (+$10,320 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,304, the opportunity cost of earning $576/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 38 × $15 | 24 Jul | 10d | 6.2% | 79% | 44% | $494 | $1,482 | -$786 | $10,703 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $15 6.2% OTM over spot $14.12 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.14 mid) = $494 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,482/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $15.13) 82% EV / mo +$308 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.0 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,388 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$971 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,022 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $15.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $15): -$10,703 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (12 × $17.50): -$500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,096 (+$7,504 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,120, the opportunity cost of earning $1,482/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 28 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 2.7% | 64% | 61% | $756 | $2,268 | — | $8,894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 28 × $14.50 2.7% OTM over spot $14.12 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.28 mid) = $756 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,268/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $14.78) 73% EV / mo +$336 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.6-4.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~15.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,441 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$252 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 28 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,816 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $14.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (28 × $14.50): -$8,894 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (22 × $17.50): -$916 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,704 (+$8,896 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,728, the opportunity cost of earning $2,268/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 30 × $14 | 24 Jul | 10d | -0.9% | 47% | 99+% | $1,500 | $4,500 | +$2,232 | $10,339 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $14 0.9% ITM over spot $14.12 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.53 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 47% Breach risk 53% POP (stays ≤ $14.53) 65% EV / mo +$467 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$495 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.34 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.95: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $14.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.98 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.95, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,706 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $14): -$10,339 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$833 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,066 (+$7,534 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,976 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,090, the opportunity cost of earning $4,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.979 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,706 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,976
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 21/50 | $2,310 | $1,905 | 73% | 79% | +$750 | -$7,007 | 32.4% | $-9,108 (vs do-nothing $-6,132) |
| $14.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 28/50 | $2,268 | $1,826 | 64% | 73% | +$336 | -$8,894 | 41.1% | $-10,704 (vs do-nothing $-7,728) |
| $14.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 32/50 | $2,259 | $1,796 | 62% | 72% | +$330 | -$9,749 | 45.0% | $-11,392 (vs do-nothing $-8,416) |
| $14 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 21/50 | $2,335 | $1,930 | 49% | 66% | +$247 | -$6,965 | 32.2% | $-9,066 (vs do-nothing $-6,090) |
| $14 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 15/50 | $2,250 | $1,877 | 47% | 65% | +$234 | -$5,170 | 23.9% | $-7,521 (vs do-nothing $-4,545) |
| $14 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 7/50 | $2,310 | $1,979 | 43% | 64% | +$350 | -$2,532 | 11.7% | $-5,216 (vs do-nothing $-2,240) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.