50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.91 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,781/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $548/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 50 × $15 | 96% | $2,250 | $1,534 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 25 × $14.50 | 65% | $2,417 | $718 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 37 × $16 | 17 Jul | 2d | 13.1% | 99+% | 0% | $37 | $555 | -$1,695 | $7,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $16 13.1% OTM over spot $14.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $37 credit for the 2d cycle → $555/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $16.02) 99+% EV / mo +$555 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.7-4.4] median · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,231 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$835 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.33/sh now → $0.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $16.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $16): -$7,037 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17.50): -$496 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,855 (+$11,445 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,624, the opportunity cost of earning $555/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 36 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.0% | 96% | 8% | $108 | $1,620 | -$630 | $10,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $15 6.0% OTM over spot $14.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $108 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 96% EV / mo +$1,434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 45% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 40% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,846 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$634 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.20–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 148 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $15): -$10,375 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17.50): -$535 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,231 (+$8,069 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,000, the opportunity cost of earning $1,620/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 6.0% | 96% | 5% | $150 | $2,250 | — | $14,410 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 6.0% OTM over spot $14.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 96% EV / mo +$1,992 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 46% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 38% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,269 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$881 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.21–$0.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 139 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$14,410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,731 (+$4,569 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,500, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 14 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 2.5% | 77% | 47% | $168 | $2,520 | +$270 | $4,609 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $14.50 2.5% OTM over spot $14.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $168 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $14.63) 84% EV / mo +$1,551 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.0 mo [1.8-5.3] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~25.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,986 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$101 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 887 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $14.50): -$4,609 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (36 × $17.50): -$1,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,305 (+$12,995 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,074, the opportunity cost of earning $2,520/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 27 × $14.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 2.5% | 77% | 47% | $324 | $4,860 | +$2,610 | $8,888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $14.50 2.5% OTM over spot $14.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.13 mid) = $324 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $14.63) 84% EV / mo +$2,992 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~22.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,263 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$195 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 845 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $14.50): -$8,888 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$878 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,088 (+$9,212 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,857, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 42 × $16 | 24 Jul | 9d | 13.1% | 94% | 11% | $168 | $560 | -$1,857 | $7,862 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $16 13.1% OTM over spot $14.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.04 mid) = $168 credit for the 9d cycle → $560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 95% EV / mo +$375 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-349 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,638 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.32–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 179 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $16): -$7,862 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$306 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,489 (+$10,811 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,258, the opportunity cost of earning $560/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 34 × $15 | 24 Jul | 9d | 6.0% | 80% | 41% | $476 | $1,587 | -$830 | $9,425 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $15 6.0% OTM over spot $14.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.15 mid) = $476 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,587/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.15) 84% EV / mo +$643 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.6-5.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,308 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$802 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 952 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $15.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $15): -$9,425 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17.50): -$611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,357 (+$8,943 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,126, the opportunity cost of earning $1,587/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 25 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.5% | 65% | 58% | $725 | $2,417 | — | $7,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 25 × $14.50 2.5% OTM over spot $14.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $725 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,417/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $14.79) 74% EV / mo +$722 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.1 mo [1.7-5.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.2 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~15.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,837 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$151 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,745 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $14.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (25 × $14.50): -$7,805 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (25 × $17.50): -$955 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,081 (+$10,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,850, the opportunity cost of earning $2,417/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 50 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.5% | 65% | 73% | $1,450 | $4,833 | +$2,417 | $15,610 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $14.50 2.5% OTM over spot $14.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.29 mid) = $1,450 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $14.79) 74% EV / mo +$1,443 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.5-5.3] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~15.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,857 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 57% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$302 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,723 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $14.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.37 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,979 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $14.50): -$15,610 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,931 (+$3,369 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,231 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,700, the opportunity cost of earning $4,833/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.009 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,979 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,231
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 14/50 | $2,520 | $2,174 | 77% | 84% | +$1,551 | -$4,609 | 21.3% | $-6,305 (vs do-nothing $-4,074) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 25/50 | $2,417 | $2,009 | 65% | 74% | +$722 | -$7,805 | 36.0% | $-9,081 (vs do-nothing $-6,850) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 31/50 | $2,441 | $2,000 | 62% | 73% | +$618 | -$9,275 | 42.8% | $-10,322 (vs do-nothing $-8,091) |
| $14 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 20/50 | $2,475 | $2,095 | 48% | 67% | +$455 | -$6,504 | 30.0% | $-7,971 (vs do-nothing $-5,740) |
| $14 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.51 | 15/50 | $2,550 | $2,198 | 46% | 66% | +$425 | -$5,103 | 23.6% | $-6,761 (vs do-nothing $-4,530) |
| $14 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.34 | 5/50 | $2,550 | $2,255 | 38% | 67% | +$686 | -$1,786 | 8.2% | $-3,826 (vs do-nothing $-1,595) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.