50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,547/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $516/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 50 × $15.50 | 96% | $2,250 | $1,560 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 27 × $15 | 65% | $2,340 | $448 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 35 × $16.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 99+% | 0% | $35 | $525 | -$1,725 | $5,074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $16.50 12.7% OTM over spot $14.63 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.01 mid) = $35 credit for the 2d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $16.52) 99+% EV / mo +$525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.3-4.7] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,224 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$729 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $18 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $16.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $16.50): -$5,074 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$629 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,055 (+$11,070 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,605, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 34 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 5.9% | 96% | 9% | $102 | $1,530 | -$720 | $8,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $15.50 5.9% OTM over spot $14.63 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $102 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $15.54) 96% EV / mo +$1,336 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.1] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,185 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$550 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.20–$0.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 126 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $15.50): -$8,261 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17.50): -$671 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,284 (+$7,841 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,834, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15.50 | 17 Jul | 2d | 5.9% | 96% | 5% | $150 | $2,250 | — | $12,148 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15.50 5.9% OTM over spot $14.63 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $15.54) 96% EV / mo +$1,964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.3-4.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,305 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$808 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life (likely $0.19–$0.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 144 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $16 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15.50): -$12,148 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,500 (+$4,625 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,050, the opportunity cost of earning $2,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 16 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 2.5% | 77% | 46% | $160 | $2,400 | +$150 | $4,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $15 2.5% OTM over spot $14.63 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $160 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 83% EV / mo +$1,277 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.3-3.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~23.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,351 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$126 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.25/sh now → $0.18 mid-life (likely $0.21–$0.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 834 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $15): -$4,575 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (34 × $17.50): -$1,427 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,354 (+$10,771 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,904, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 31 × $15 | 17 Jul | 2d | 2.5% | 77% | 46% | $310 | $4,650 | +$2,400 | $8,865 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 31 × $15 2.5% OTM over spot $14.63 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.11 mid) = $310 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 83% EV / mo +$2,474 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.7 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.5 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~21.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,604 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$245 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 31 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.25/sh now → $0.18 mid-life (likely $0.21–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 875 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (31 × $15): -$8,865 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17.50): -$797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,014 (+$7,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,564, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 23 × $16 | 24 Jul | 9d | 9.3% | 89% | 22% | $161 | $537 | -$1,803 | $4,346 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 23 × $16 9.3% OTM over spot $14.63 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.08 mid) = $161 credit for the 9d cycle → $537/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $16.07) 90% EV / mo +$268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~3.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $206 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$781 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 23 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.35–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 422 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $16.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (23 × $16): -$4,346 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (27 × $17.50): -$1,133 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,831 (+$11,294 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,381, the opportunity cost of earning $537/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 35 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 5.9% | 80% | 41% | $455 | $1,517 | -$823 | $8,154 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $15.50 5.9% OTM over spot $14.63 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $455 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,517/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.64) 83% EV / mo +$531 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-4.4] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,256 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$887 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 958 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $15.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $15.50): -$8,154 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$629 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,135 (+$7,990 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,685, the opportunity cost of earning $1,517/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 27 × $15 | 24 Jul | 9d | 2.5% | 65% | 59% | $702 | $2,340 | — | $7,289 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $15 2.5% OTM over spot $14.63 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.28 mid) = $702 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $15.28) 74% EV / mo +$536 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.8 mo [1.4-4.7] median · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 45% without) · ~15.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,439 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$265 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,761 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $15.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $15): -$7,289 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$965 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,606 (+$8,519 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,156, the opportunity cost of earning $2,340/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 32 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | -0.9% | 46% | 99+% | $1,376 | $4,587 | +$2,247 | $9,695 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 32 × $14.50 0.9% ITM over spot $14.63 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.49 mid) = $1,376 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,587/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 46% Breach risk 54% POP (stays ≤ $14.99) 65% EV / mo +$32 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$308 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 94% POP 94% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 32 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $14.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,773 − CC assignment net of premium (32 × $14.50): -$9,695 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $17.50): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,802 (+$6,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,450 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,352, the opportunity cost of earning $4,587/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.009 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,773 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,450
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 16/50 | $2,400 | $2,139 | 77% | 83% | +$1,277 | -$4,575 | 21.1% | $-6,354 (vs do-nothing $-3,904) |
| $15 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 27/50 | $2,340 | $1,996 | 65% | 74% | +$536 | -$7,289 | 33.7% | $-8,606 (vs do-nothing $-6,156) |
| $15 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 31/50 | $2,325 | $1,951 | 62% | 72% | +$449 | -$7,935 | 36.7% | $-9,084 (vs do-nothing $-6,634) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 20/50 | $2,325 | $2,034 | 48% | 66% | +$246 | -$5,679 | 26.2% | $-7,290 (vs do-nothing $-4,840) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 16/50 | $2,293 | $2,032 | 46% | 65% | +$16 | -$4,847 | 22.4% | $-6,626 (vs do-nothing $-4,176) |
| $14.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 5/50 | $2,325 | $2,146 | 40% | 65% | +$496 | -$1,575 | 7.3% | $-3,815 (vs do-nothing $-1,365) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.