50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.93 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $391/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 35 × $15 | 70% | $2,756 | $653 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 35 × $16.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 13.6% | 96% | 9% | $105 | $394 | -$2,362 | $4,887 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $16.50 13.6% OTM over spot $14.53 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.04 mid) = $105 credit for the 8d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $16.54) 96% EV / mo +$273 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.1] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $178 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,263 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $17 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 106 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $17 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16.50 is $1 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $16.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,372 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $16.50): -$4,887 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,619 (+$11,906 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,084 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,535, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 10.1% | 91% | 17% | $250 | $938 | -$1,819 | $9,382 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 10.1% OTM over spot $14.53 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 8d cycle → $938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 92% EV / mo +$500 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.4-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,326 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,583 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.52/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,372 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$9,382 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,534 (+$7,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,084 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,450, the opportunity cost of earning $938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 48 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 6.7% | 84% | 33% | $480 | $1,800 | -$956 | $11,166 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 48 × $15.50 6.7% OTM over spot $14.53 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $480 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $15.61) 86% EV / mo +$741 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.2-4.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,922 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,167 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 48 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,372 − CC assignment net of premium (48 × $15.50): -$11,166 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $17.50): -$77 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,396 (+$6,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,084 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,312, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $15 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.2% | 70% | 50% | $735 | $2,756 | — | $9,507 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $15 3.2% OTM over spot $14.53 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.22 mid) = $735 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,756/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $15.22) 77% EV / mo +$791 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,663 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$387 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.45/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,500 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $15.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,372 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $15): -$9,507 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,239 (+$7,286 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,084 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,155, the opportunity cost of earning $2,756/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | -0.2% | 50% | 99+% | $1,470 | $5,512 | +$2,756 | $10,522 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14.50 0.2% ITM over spot $14.53 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.43 mid) = $1,470 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,512/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $14.93) 67% EV / mo +$913 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$425 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.93: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $14.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.93, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$17,372 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14.50): -$10,522 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17.50): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,254 (+$6,271 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,084 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,170, the opportunity cost of earning $5,512/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 4 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.023 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,372 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,084
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 35/50 | $2,756 | $2,485 | 70% | 77% | +$791 | -$9,507 | 43.9% | $-10,239 (vs do-nothing $-8,155) |
| $15 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 39/50 | $2,730 | $2,427 | 65% | 74% | +$632 | -$10,048 | 46.4% | $-10,625 (vs do-nothing $-8,541) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 24/50 | $2,736 | $2,553 | 51% | 67% | +$428 | -$6,855 | 31.7% | $-8,012 (vs do-nothing $-5,928) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 18/50 | $2,835 | $2,700 | 50% | 67% | +$469 | -$5,411 | 25.0% | $-6,800 (vs do-nothing $-4,716) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.