FORTRESS FIGHT: ETHA @ $14.38

BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.78 | 50 contracts (5,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

ETHA @ $14.38 UNDERWATER $2.95 (17.0% below BE SS)

50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $13 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $9.050/sh)

SP: $16 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $4.879/sh)

HP: $10 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.737/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$51,650	(ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000
Normal income ref	$300/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$391/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-17,500	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$391/mo

HEDGE COVER
$391/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$300/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
72.2 mo to earn back $21,650

ML VELOCITY
172.2 mo to earn back $51,650

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $17.78 (probe: $18C 15d) still earns $100/mo (33% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

⚠ DEATH SPIRAL: hedge cost ($391/mo) exceeds normal income ($300/mo), even at safest FIGHT trade, net cash flow is negative.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 40 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 93 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $19.06 (+33%) · daily UBB $14.61 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $17.78 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 50 × $18 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $18)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$50

Income / mo

$100

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (6 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 6 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.023 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$17,382 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,359

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$17	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.07	41/50	$391	$54	92%	93%	+$166	-$2,904	13.4%	$-3,245 (vs do-nothing $-1,886)
$16.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.11	27/50	$405	$152	88%	90%	+$160	-$3,154	14.6%	$-3,843 (vs do-nothing $-2,484)
$16	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.17	17/50	$394	$201	83%	86%	+$132	-$2,734	12.6%	$-3,671 (vs do-nothing $-2,312)
$15.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.27	11/50	$405	$248	76%	81%	+$115	-$2,209	10.2%	$-3,295 (vs do-nothing $-1,936)
$15	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.47	7/50	$449	$315	66%	76%	+$138	-$1,616	7.5%	$-2,801 (vs do-nothing $-1,442)
$14.50	22d	7 Aug 2026	$0.66	5/50	$450	$329	55%	70%	+$92	-$1,309	6.0%	$-2,544 (vs do-nothing $-1,185)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-16 16:07