50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.92 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,100/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $554/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 46 × $15 | 80% | $2,070 | $-5 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge ← lean | 50 × $16 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.7% | 94% | 11% | $150 | $562 | -$1,507 | $9,457 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 12.7% OTM over spot $14.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.04 mid) = $150 credit for the 8d cycle → $562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $16.04) 95% EV / mo +$311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.4-4.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-637 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,923 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $17 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 162 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $16 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $16.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,035 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$9,457 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,572 (+$9,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,500, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 31 × $15 | 24 Jul | 8d | 5.6% | 80% | 41% | $372 | $1,395 | -$675 | $8,684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 31 × $15 5.6% OTM over spot $14.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $372 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,395/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.13) 83% EV / mo +$470 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.9 mo [1.4-4.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.9 mo) · 47% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 44% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,800 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$755 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 31 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $15.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,035 − CC assignment net of premium (31 × $15): -$8,684 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17.50): -$743 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,543 (+$9,607 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,471, the opportunity cost of earning $1,395/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $15 | 24 Jul | 8d | 5.6% | 80% | 33% | $552 | $2,070 | — | $12,886 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $15 5.6% OTM over spot $14.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.13 mid) = $552 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $15.13) 83% EV / mo +$698 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 3.5 mo [1.6-5.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (3.6 mo) · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,583 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,120 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $15.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,035 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $15): -$12,886 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$157 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,158 (+$5,992 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,086, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 43 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 63% | 75% | $1,118 | $4,193 | +$2,123 | $13,594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 43 × $14.50 2.1% OTM over spot $14.20 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $1,118 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,193/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $14.77) 73% EV / mo +$882 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.4-5.0] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 42% without) · ~18.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,237 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$340 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 43 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.48/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,830 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $14.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,035 − CC assignment net of premium (43 × $14.50): -$13,594 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $17.50): -$274 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,983 (+$5,167 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,072 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,911, the opportunity cost of earning $4,193/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.023 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,035 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,072
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 46/50 | $2,070 | $1,540 | 80% | 83% | +$698 | -$12,886 | 59.5% | $-13,158 (vs do-nothing $-11,086) |
| $15 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 43/50 | $2,064 | $1,552 | 73% | 79% | +$512 | -$11,530 | 53.3% | $-11,919 (vs do-nothing $-9,847) |
| $15 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 47/50 | $2,051 | $1,515 | 70% | 78% | +$323 | -$12,226 | 56.5% | $-12,459 (vs do-nothing $-10,387) |
| $14.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 22/50 | $2,145 | $1,759 | 63% | 73% | +$451 | -$6,955 | 32.1% | $-8,166 (vs do-nothing $-6,094) |
| $14.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 26/50 | $2,132 | $1,722 | 60% | 71% | +$402 | -$7,829 | 36.2% | $-8,884 (vs do-nothing $-6,812) |
| $14.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 47/50 | $2,051 | $1,515 | 59% | 70% | $-796 | -$14,576 | 67.3% | $-14,809 (vs do-nothing $-12,737) |
| $14 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.45 | 34/50 | $2,086 | $1,628 | 48% | 65% | $-1,123 | -$11,802 | 54.5% | $-12,544 (vs do-nothing $-10,472) |
| $14 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 17/50 | $2,074 | $1,718 | 46% | 65% | +$122 | -$5,629 | 26.0% | $-7,036 (vs do-nothing $-4,964) |
| $14 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 12/50 | $2,070 | $1,744 | 43% | 64% | +$56 | -$4,154 | 19.2% | $-5,756 (vs do-nothing $-3,684) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.