50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,356/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $560/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 29 × $14.50 | 68% | $2,734 | $645 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 27 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 92% | 16% | +2pp | $135 | $579 | -$2,156 | $6,129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $15.50 10.1% OTM over spot $14.08 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $135 credit for the 7d cycle → $579/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.55) 93% EV / mo +$365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1/mo median; plan ~$1/mo after 68% keep · $5 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-5.0], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$871 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 309 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,961 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $15.50): -$6,129 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$667 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,085 (+$12,165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,346, the opportunity cost of earning $579/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 10.1% | 92% | 16% | +4pp | $250 | $1,071 | -$1,663 | $11,350 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15.50 10.1% OTM over spot $14.08 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $15.55) 93% EV / mo +$676 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $205/mo median; plan ~$140/mo after 68% keep · $1,054 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,614 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,961 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15.50): -$11,350 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,639 (+$7,611 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,900, the opportunity cost of earning $1,071/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 42 × $15 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.5% | 83% | 34% | +8pp | $420 | $1,800 | -$934 | $11,424 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 42 × $15 6.5% OTM over spot $14.08 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $420 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 86% EV / mo +$730 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $491/mo median; plan ~$334/mo after 68% keep · $2,938 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.5-4.7], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,046 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 42 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 775 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,961 − CC assignment net of premium (42 × $15): -$11,424 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (8 × $17.50): -$232 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,945 (+$7,305 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,206, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 29 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 3.0% | 68% | 52% | +8pp | $638 | $2,734 | — | $8,990 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $14.50 3.0% OTM over spot $14.08 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $638 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,734/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $14.73) 76% EV / mo +$707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $633/mo median; plan ~$431/mo after 68% keep · $4,284 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-4.9], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$307 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,547 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $14.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,961 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $14.50): -$8,990 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17.50): -$609 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,888 (+$9,362 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,149, the opportunity cost of earning $2,734/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 30 × $14 | 24 Jul | 7d | -0.6% | 48% | 99+% | · | $1,260 | $5,400 | +$2,666 | $10,200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 30 × $14 0.6% ITM over spot $14.08 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.45 mid) = $1,260 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays ≤ $14.45) 66% EV / mo +$675 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$349 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 30 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.82: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $14.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.82, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$18,961 − CC assignment net of premium (30 × $14): -$10,200 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (20 × $17.50): -$580 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,069 (+$8,181 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,739 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,330, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.014 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$18,961 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,739
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 29/50 | $2,734 | $2,309 | 68% | 76% | +$707 | -$8,990 | 41.5% | $-9,888 (vs do-nothing $-8,149) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 34/50 | $2,696 | $2,238 | 64% | 73% | +$593 | -$10,030 | 46.3% | $-10,783 (vs do-nothing $-9,044) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.46 | 41/50 | $2,694 | $2,192 | 62% | 73% | +$418 | -$11,726 | 54.2% | $-12,276 (vs do-nothing $-10,537) |
| $14.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.56 | 45/50 | $2,700 | $2,172 | 61% | 73% | +$437 | -$12,420 | 57.4% | $-12,854 (vs do-nothing $-11,115) |
| $14 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 32/50 | $2,743 | $2,298 | 51% | 68% | +$352 | -$9,664 | 44.6% | $-10,475 (vs do-nothing $-8,736) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 28/50 | $2,760 | $2,341 | 50% | 68% | +$339 | -$8,764 | 40.5% | $-9,691 (vs do-nothing $-7,952) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.58 | 22/50 | $2,734 | $2,354 | 50% | 67% | +$368 | -$7,128 | 32.9% | $-8,229 (vs do-nothing $-6,490) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.42 | 15/50 | $2,700 | $2,365 | 48% | 66% | +$338 | -$5,100 | 23.6% | $-6,404 (vs do-nothing $-4,665) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.