50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.87 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $4,982/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $560/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 26 × $14.50 | 67% | $2,563 | $744 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 27 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.7% | 91% | 18% | +2pp | $135 | $579 | -$1,984 | $6,270 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 27 × $15.50 9.7% OTM over spot $14.13 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $135 credit for the 7d cycle → $579/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.55) 92% EV / mo +$314 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-21/mo median; plan ~$-14/mo after 68% keep · $-62 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.8], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$834 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 27 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,004 − CC assignment net of premium (27 × $15.50): -$6,270 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (23 × $17.50): -$787 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,303 (+$11,947 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,957 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,346, the opportunity cost of earning $579/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.7% | 91% | 18% | +4pp | $250 | $1,071 | -$1,491 | $11,611 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15.50 9.7% OTM over spot $14.13 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.55) 92% EV / mo +$581 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $177/mo median; plan ~$121/mo after 68% keep · $841 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,004 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15.50): -$11,611 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,857 (+$7,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,957 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,900, the opportunity cost of earning $1,071/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 39 × $15 | 24 Jul | 7d | 6.1% | 83% | 36% | +6pp | $390 | $1,671 | -$891 | $10,812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $15 6.1% OTM over spot $14.13 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $390 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,671/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $15.11) 85% EV / mo +$664 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $434/mo median; plan ~$295/mo after 68% keep · $2,702 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-5.0], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$918 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $15.11 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,004 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $15): -$10,812 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17.50): -$377 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,434 (+$7,816 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,957 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,477, the opportunity cost of earning $1,671/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 26 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.6% | 67% | 52% | +9pp | $598 | $2,563 | — | $8,170 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $14.50 2.6% OTM over spot $14.13 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $598 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,563/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $14.74) 76% EV / mo +$782 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $562/mo median; plan ~$382/mo after 68% keep · $3,802 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.2-6.0], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$215 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,566 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $14.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,004 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $14.50): -$8,170 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17.50): -$821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,237 (+$10,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,957 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,280, the opportunity cost of earning $2,563/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 26 × $14 | 24 Jul | 7d | -1.0% | 45% | 99+% | · | $1,170 | $5,014 | +$2,451 | $8,898 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 26 × $14 1.0% ITM over spot $14.13 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,014/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 45% Breach risk 55% POP (stays ≤ $14.47) 66% EV / mo +$792 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$414 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 26 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.41/sh now → $0.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $14.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.02 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.87, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,004 − CC assignment net of premium (26 × $14): -$8,898 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (24 × $17.50): -$821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,965 (+$9,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,957 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,008, the opportunity cost of earning $5,014/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.017 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,004 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,957
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 26/50 | $2,563 | $2,157 | 67% | 76% | +$782 | -$8,170 | 37.7% | $-9,237 (vs do-nothing $-7,280) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 31/50 | $2,524 | $2,086 | 62% | 72% | +$524 | -$9,276 | 42.8% | $-10,172 (vs do-nothing $-8,215) |
| $14.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.47 | 38/50 | $2,551 | $2,068 | 61% | 72% | +$393 | -$11,029 | 50.9% | $-11,685 (vs do-nothing $-9,728) |
| $14.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 40/50 | $2,529 | $2,032 | 60% | 72% | +$434 | -$11,129 | 51.4% | $-11,717 (vs do-nothing $-9,760) |
| $14 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 29/50 | $2,579 | $2,153 | 50% | 67% | +$327 | -$8,823 | 40.8% | $-9,787 (vs do-nothing $-7,830) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 25/50 | $2,571 | $2,172 | 49% | 67% | +$312 | -$7,881 | 36.4% | $-8,982 (vs do-nothing $-7,025) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 20/50 | $2,571 | $2,204 | 48% | 66% | +$328 | -$6,545 | 30.2% | $-7,817 (vs do-nothing $-5,860) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 13/50 | $2,507 | $2,185 | 45% | 66% | +$396 | -$4,449 | 20.5% | $-5,961 (vs do-nothing $-4,004) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.