50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $3,911/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $626/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 46 × $14.50 | 82% | $1,971 | $-2 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 37 × $15 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 91% | 19% | +1pp | $148 | $634 | -$1,337 | $10,942 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $15 9.5% OTM over spot $13.70 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.04 mid) = $148 credit for the 7d cycle → $634/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 92% EV / mo +$263 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-102/mo median; plan ~$-69/mo after 68% keep · $-629 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.8-5.5], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,179 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 363 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,812 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $15): -$10,942 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (13 × $17.50): -$607 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,812 (+$10,263 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,599 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,213, the opportunity cost of earning $634/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 31 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.9% | 82% | 37% | +7pp | $310 | $1,329 | -$643 | $10,531 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 31 × $14.50 5.9% OTM over spot $13.70 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $310 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,329/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 85% EV / mo +$529 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $223/mo median; plan ~$151/mo after 68% keep · $1,569 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.8 mo [2.1-5.5], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$728 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 31 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 857 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $18.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,812 − CC assignment net of premium (31 × $14.50): -$10,531 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (19 × $17.50): -$888 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,682 (+$10,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,599 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,083, the opportunity cost of earning $1,329/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 46 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 5.9% | 82% | 30% | +6pp | $460 | $1,971 | — | $15,627 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 46 × $14.50 5.9% OTM over spot $13.70 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $460 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,971/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 85% EV / mo +$784 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $474/mo median; plan ~$322/mo after 68% keep · $3,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.0-5.2], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,080 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 46 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.47/sh now → $0.33 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 897 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $18.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,812 − CC assignment net of premium (46 × $14.50): -$15,627 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $17.50): -$187 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,077 (+$5,998 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,599 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,478, the opportunity cost of earning $1,971/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $14 | 24 Jul | 7d | 2.2% | 65% | 72% | +6pp | $920 | $3,943 | +$1,971 | $15,069 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $14 2.2% OTM over spot $13.70 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.24 mid) = $920 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,943/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $14.24) 74% EV / mo +$1,006 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $872/mo median; plan ~$593/mo after 68% keep · $6,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [2.0-5.5], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$327 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,736 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $14.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,812 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $14): -$15,069 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17.50): -$467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,799 (+$6,276 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,599 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,943/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.014 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,812 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,599
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 46/50 | $1,971 | $1,371 | 82% | 85% | +$784 | -$15,627 | 72.2% | $-16,077 (vs do-nothing $-13,478) |
| $14.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 42/50 | $1,980 | $1,405 | 74% | 79% | +$466 | -$13,764 | 63.6% | $-14,401 (vs do-nothing $-11,802) |
| $14 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 20/50 | $1,971 | $1,538 | 65% | 74% | +$503 | -$7,534 | 34.8% | $-9,199 (vs do-nothing $-6,600) |
| $14 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 25/50 | $2,036 | $1,570 | 61% | 71% | +$325 | -$9,043 | 41.8% | $-10,474 (vs do-nothing $-7,875) |
| $14 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.37 | 37/50 | $1,956 | $1,413 | 60% | 71% | $-255 | -$13,421 | 62.0% | $-14,291 (vs do-nothing $-11,692) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 32/50 | $2,011 | $1,501 | 48% | 65% | $-1,032 | -$12,983 | 60.0% | $-14,087 (vs do-nothing $-11,488) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 17/50 | $2,040 | $1,626 | 46% | 64% | +$30 | -$6,693 | 30.9% | $-8,498 (vs do-nothing $-5,899) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 11/50 | $2,074 | $1,699 | 43% | 64% | +$106 | -$4,463 | 20.6% | $-6,548 (vs do-nothing $-3,949) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.