50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $18.13 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,192/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $517/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 44 × $14.50 | 78% | $2,640 | $677 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 35 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 11.5% | 95% | 9% | +2pp | $105 | $525 | -$2,115 | $9,086 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $15.50 11.5% OTM over spot $13.90 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.04 mid) = $105 credit for the 6d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $15.54) 96% EV / mo +$382 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6/mo median; plan ~$-4/mo after 68% keep · $-22 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.6-4.0], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,000 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.45/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 93 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $16 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $3 below CC-SS $18.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,236 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $15.50): -$9,086 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17): -$1,644 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,244 (+$10,506 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,250, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $15 | 24 Jul | 6d | 7.9% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $250 | $1,250 | -$1,390 | $15,380 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15 7.9% OTM over spot $13.90 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.05) 91% EV / mo +$668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $348/mo median; plan ~$237/mo after 68% keep · $2,166 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.7-5.2], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,222 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.42/sh now → $0.29 mid-life (likely $0.26–$0.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $18.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,236 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15): -$15,380 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,894 (+$5,856 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,900, the opportunity cost of earning $1,250/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 29 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 4.3% | 78% | 45% | +6pp | $348 | $1,740 | -$900 | $10,167 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $14.50 4.3% OTM over spot $13.90 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $348 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 82% EV / mo +$708 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $485/mo median; plan ~$330/mo after 68% keep · $3,733 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.0-4.9], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$446 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 983 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,236 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $14.50): -$10,167 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17): -$2,302 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,983 (+$8,767 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,989, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 4.3% | 78% | 33% | +11pp | $528 | $2,640 | — | $15,427 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $14.50 4.3% OTM over spot $13.90 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $528 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,640/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 82% EV / mo +$1,074 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $840/mo median; plan ~$571/mo after 68% keep · $6,414 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.5 mo [1.9-6.0], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$676 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.39/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 978 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $4 below CC-SS $18.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,236 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $14.50): -$15,427 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,598 (+$5,152 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,604, the opportunity cost of earning $2,640/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $14 | 24 Jul | 6d | 0.7% | 56% | 89% | +12pp | $1,044 | $5,220 | +$2,580 | $13,810 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $14 0.7% OTM over spot $13.90 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid) = $1,044 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,220/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 70% EV / mo +$1,352 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 35% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,150/mo median; plan ~$782/mo after 68% keep · $8,658 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.3-5.5], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$131 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.36/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.34–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,075 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $14 (overshoots $0.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $18.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $18.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,236 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $14): -$13,810 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$1,534 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,858 (+$5,892 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,994 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,864, the opportunity cost of earning $5,220/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.005 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,236 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,994
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 44/50 | $2,640 | $2,165 | 78% | 82% | +$1,074 | -$15,427 | 71.3% | $-16,598 (vs do-nothing $-10,604) |
| $14.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 44/50 | $2,640 | $2,165 | 70% | 77% | +$792 | -$14,811 | 68.4% | $-15,982 (vs do-nothing $-9,988) |
| $14.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.36 | 49/50 | $2,646 | $2,136 | 67% | 76% | +$676 | -$16,004 | 73.9% | $-16,627 (vs do-nothing $-10,633) |
| $14 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 18/50 | $2,610 | $2,315 | 56% | 70% | +$676 | -$6,905 | 31.9% | $-10,926 (vs do-nothing $-4,932) |
| $14 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 25/50 | $2,596 | $2,253 | 55% | 69% | +$533 | -$9,190 | 42.4% | $-12,444 (vs do-nothing $-6,450) |
| $14 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 35/50 | $2,606 | $2,193 | 55% | 69% | +$296 | -$12,096 | 55.9% | $-14,254 (vs do-nothing $-8,260) |
| $14 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 31/50 | $2,650 | $2,265 | 55% | 69% | +$531 | -$11,024 | 50.9% | $-13,620 (vs do-nothing $-7,626) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.