50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.52 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $708/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 5d | 44 × $14.50 | 78% | $2,904 | $638 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $15.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 11.4% | 98% | 5% | +2pp | $120 | $720 | -$2,184 | $7,958 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $15.50 11.4% OTM over spot $13.91 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.04 mid) = $120 credit for the 5d cycle → $720/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $15.54) 98% EV / mo +$657 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-329/mo median; plan ~$-224/mo after 68% keep · $-2,778 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-5.2], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,106 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.43/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.21–$0.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $16 (overshoots $0.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.03 collected) or spot ≥ $15.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,243 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $15.50): -$7,958 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (10 × $17): -$500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,615 (+$7,785 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,655 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,960, the opportunity cost of earning $720/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $15.50 | 31 Jul | 12d | 11.4% | 90% | 20% | +4pp | $400 | $1,000 | -$1,904 | $9,698 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $15.50 11.4% OTM over spot $13.91 31 Jul 2026 (12d, $0.09 mid) = $400 credit for the 12d cycle → $1,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.59) 91% EV / mo +$587 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-23/mo median; plan ~$-16/mo after 68% keep · $-136 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.5-4.8], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,924 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 12); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.38–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 420 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 12, at $16 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15.50 is $2 below CC-SS $17.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $15.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,243 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $15.50): -$9,698 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,855 (+$6,545 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,655 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 29 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 4.2% | 78% | 45% | +5pp | $319 | $1,914 | -$990 | $8,438 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $14.50 4.2% OTM over spot $13.91 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.12 mid) = $319 credit for the 5d cycle → $1,914/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 82% EV / mo +$697 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 49% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $326/mo median; plan ~$222/mo after 68% keep · $2,113 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.7-5.0], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$456 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.29–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,243 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $14.50): -$8,438 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (21 × $17): -$1,049 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,644 (+$6,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,655 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,989, the opportunity cost of earning $1,914/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 44 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 4.2% | 78% | 32% | +14pp | $484 | $2,904 | — | $12,802 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 44 × $14.50 4.2% OTM over spot $13.91 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.12 mid) = $484 credit for the 5d cycle → $2,904/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 82% EV / mo +$1,057 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $720/mo median; plan ~$490/mo after 68% keep · $4,848 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.7-5.6], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$692 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 44 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.38/sh now → $0.27 mid-life (likely $0.27–$0.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 963 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,243 − CC assignment net of premium (44 × $14.50): -$12,802 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $17): -$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,259 (+$3,141 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,655 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,604, the opportunity cost of earning $2,904/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $14 | 24 Jul | 5d | 0.6% | 56% | 90% | +11pp | $980 | $5,880 | +$2,976 | $11,339 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14 0.6% OTM over spot $13.91 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.29 mid) = $980 credit for the 5d cycle → $5,880/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $14.29) 70% EV / mo +$1,251 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~12.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,064/mo median; plan ~$723/mo after 68% keep · $7,351 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.0-5.4], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$109 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.35/sh now → $0.25 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,025 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $14.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.75 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-18,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,243 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14): -$11,339 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $17): -$749 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,245 (+$4,155 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,655 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,590, the opportunity cost of earning $5,880/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$16,243 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,655
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 44/50 | $2,904 | $2,226 | 78% | 82% | +$1,057 | -$12,802 | 59.1% | $-15,259 (vs do-nothing $-10,604) |
| $14.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 45/50 | $2,925 | $2,242 | 70% | 77% | +$848 | -$12,418 | 57.4% | $-14,825 (vs do-nothing $-10,170) |
| $14.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.37 | 50/50 | $2,921 | $2,213 | 67% | 76% | +$794 | -$13,248 | 61.2% | $-15,405 (vs do-nothing $-10,750) |
| $14 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 18/50 | $3,024 | $2,476 | 56% | 70% | +$643 | -$5,831 | 26.9% | $-9,587 (vs do-nothing $-4,932) |
| $14 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 25/50 | $2,875 | $2,292 | 55% | 69% | +$600 | -$7,649 | 35.3% | $-11,055 (vs do-nothing $-6,400) |
| $14 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 37/50 | $2,903 | $2,260 | 55% | 69% | +$477 | -$10,506 | 48.5% | $-13,313 (vs do-nothing $-8,658) |
| $14 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.58 | 32/50 | $2,931 | $2,313 | 55% | 69% | +$585 | -$9,407 | 43.4% | $-12,463 (vs do-nothing $-7,808) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.