50 contracts (5,000 sh) | BE SS: $17.33 | CC-SS: $17.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $51,650 | (ND $4.33 + SW $6) x 5000 |
| Normal income ref | $5,455/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $528/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 50 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 34 × $14.50 | 73% | $2,805 | $721 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 36 × $14.50 | 65% | $2,749 | $660 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $15 | 24 Jul | 4d | 6.4% | 90% | 21% | +3pp | $72 | $540 | -$2,265 | $5,261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $15 6.4% OTM over spot $14.10 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.04 mid) = $72 credit for the 4d cycle → $540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $15.04) 91% EV / mo +$261 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6/mo median; plan ~$4/mo after 68% keep · $30 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.6-4.9], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$328 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.31/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.19–$0.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $15.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $15): -$5,261 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (32 × $17): -$3,017 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,619 (+$11,306 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,564, the opportunity cost of earning $540/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 50 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | 13.5% | 93% | 15% | +1pp | $250 | $682 | -$2,123 | $9,565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 13.5% OTM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 11d cycle → $682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 93% EV / mo +$357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-45/mo median; plan ~$-30/mo after 68% keep · $-190 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,900 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$9,565 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,905 (+$10,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,850, the opportunity cost of earning $682/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 22 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.8% | 73% | 54% | +9pp | $242 | $1,815 | -$990 | $7,377 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 22 × $14.50 2.8% OTM over spot $14.10 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $242 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,815/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 79% EV / mo +$468 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $432/mo median; plan ~$294/mo after 68% keep · $3,141 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.3 mo [1.8-5.7], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$214 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 22 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,169 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (22 × $14.50): -$7,377 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 × $17): -$2,640 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,357 (+$9,568 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,302, the opportunity cost of earning $1,815/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 34 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.8% | 73% | 39% | +10pp | $374 | $2,805 | — | $11,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 34 × $14.50 2.8% OTM over spot $14.10 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $374 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,805/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 79% EV / mo +$723 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $810/mo median; plan ~$551/mo after 68% keep · $5,665 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [1.8-5.8], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$330 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 34 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,184 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $15 (overshoots $0.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (34 × $14.50): -$11,400 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (16 × $17): -$1,509 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,249 (+$6,676 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,194, the opportunity cost of earning $2,805/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 24 × $14 | 24 Jul | 4d | -0.7% | 45% | 99+% | · | $744 | $5,580 | +$2,775 | $8,767 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 24 × $14 0.7% ITM over spot $14.10 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.32 mid) = $744 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 45% Breach risk 55% POP (stays ≤ $14.32) 64% EV / mo +$552 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$282 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 24 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.27/sh now → $0.19 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $14.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (24 × $14): -$8,767 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (26 × $17): -$2,452 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,559 (+$8,366 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,504, the opportunity cost of earning $5,580/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 39 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | 13.5% | 93% | 15% | +1pp | $195 | $532 | -$2,217 | $7,461 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $16 13.5% OTM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.06 mid) = $195 credit for the 11d cycle → $532/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 93% EV / mo +$278 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 46% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-83/mo median; plan ~$-57/mo after 68% keep · $-428 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.8], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,482 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.33–$0.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 247 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $16): -$7,461 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (11 × $17): -$1,037 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,838 (+$11,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,783, the opportunity cost of earning $532/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 50 × $16 | 31 Jul | 11d | 13.5% | 93% | 15% | +1pp | $250 | $682 | -$2,067 | $9,565 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 50 × $16 13.5% OTM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.06 mid) = $250 credit for the 11d cycle → $682/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $16.05) 93% EV / mo +$357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-45/mo median; plan ~$-30/mo after 68% keep · $-190 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.5 mo [1.3-4.6], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,900 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 50 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.31–$0.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $16 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $2 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $16.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (50 × $16): -$9,565 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,905 (+$10,020 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,850, the opportunity cost of earning $682/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 45 × $15 | 31 Jul | 11d | 6.4% | 79% | 44% | +6pp | $675 | $1,841 | -$908 | $12,658 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 45 × $15 6.4% OTM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.15 mid) = $675 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,841/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $15.15) 82% EV / mo +$548 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 47% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $430/mo median; plan ~$292/mo after 68% keep · $2,730 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.9-5.0], measured ONLY among the 47% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,021 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 45 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,062 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $15.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (45 × $15): -$12,658 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $17): -$471 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,470 (+$6,455 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,415, the opportunity cost of earning $1,841/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 36 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 2.8% | 65% | 61% | +7pp | $1,008 | $2,749 | — | $11,459 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $14.50 2.8% OTM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.29 mid) = $1,008 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,749/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $14.79) 74% EV / mo +$537 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 51% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $567/mo median; plan ~$385/mo after 68% keep · $3,614 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 51% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$258 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.50/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.44–$0.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,816 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $3 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $14.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $14.50): -$11,459 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $17): -$1,320 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,119 (+$6,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,064, the opportunity cost of earning $2,749/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 41 × $14 | 31 Jul | 11d | -0.7% | 48% | 99+% | · | $2,050 | $5,591 | +$2,842 | $14,198 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 41 × $14 0.7% ITM over spot $14.10 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.51 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays ≤ $14.51) 65% EV / mo +$613 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$709 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 41 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $4 below CC-SS $17.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $14.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.88 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.01 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $17.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,585 − CC assignment net of premium (41 × $14): -$14,198 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (9 × $17): -$849 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,387 (+$4,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,055 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,332, the opportunity cost of earning $5,591/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.014 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,585 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,055
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 34/50 | $2,805 | $2,364 | 73% | 79% | +$723 | -$11,400 | 52.7% | $-13,249 (vs do-nothing $-8,194) |
| $14.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 36/50 | $2,749 | $2,297 | 65% | 74% | +$537 | -$11,459 | 52.9% | $-13,119 (vs do-nothing $-8,064) |
| $14.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 41/50 | $2,733 | $2,254 | 63% | 72% | +$490 | -$12,558 | 58.0% | $-13,747 (vs do-nothing $-8,692) |
| $14.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.49 | 47/50 | $2,764 | $2,252 | 61% | 73% | +$427 | -$13,973 | 64.5% | $-14,596 (vs do-nothing $-9,541) |
| $14 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 32/50 | $2,803 | $2,373 | 50% | 67% | +$369 | -$10,345 | 47.8% | $-12,383 (vs do-nothing $-7,328) |
| $14 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.63 | 26/50 | $2,730 | $2,332 | 49% | 66% | +$315 | -$8,666 | 40.0% | $-11,269 (vs do-nothing $-6,214) |
| $14 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 21/50 | $2,864 | $2,493 | 48% | 65% | +$314 | -$7,272 | 33.6% | $-10,347 (vs do-nothing $-5,292) |
| $14 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 12/50 | $2,790 | $2,469 | 45% | 64% | +$276 | -$4,384 | 20.2% | $-8,307 (vs do-nothing $-3,252) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 50 contracts at the conservative CC.