FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $379.63

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $462.51 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-06 23:49 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $379.63 UNDERWATER $76.37 (16.7% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $410C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $462.51 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,018/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$493/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-58,138	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,509/mo

HEDGE COVER
$493/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,018/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.7 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
18.2 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $462.51 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $393C (14d, $2,089/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$57,890

was $58,138 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,650

CC-SS ratchet

$462.86 → $462.51

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $410C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$3.30	$1,650	2026-07-02

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 17 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 46 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.91 (+11%) · daily UBB $400.80 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $388 / 4d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,509/mo); it brings $4,163/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $384/4d for $8,062/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+12pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $400/4d (97% survival, $562/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $36,699 (54% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 5.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-58,160 and cuts bleed by $493/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $388 (primary), 80% survival, breach 20%, $4,163/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $391 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 88% (breach 20% → 12%) for $1,800/mo less (43% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $391 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$388, 2.2% OTM, 80% surv

Sell 5 × $388 2.2% OTM over spot $379.63 10 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.16 mid)

= $555 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,163/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $388)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $389.15)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,306

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.0-6.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.9 mo) · 39% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~14.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $17,011

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,069

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$404 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $3.31–$5.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 785 simulated challenges: the $388 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $391 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$388	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.00/sh	+$502 cycle +$1,057 [+$324…+$698] · 98% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$397	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.83/sh	+$414 cycle +$969 [-$69…+$568] · 71% credit	76% surv 69%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.32/sh	+$162 cycle +$717 [-$71…+$302] · 63% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$399	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.22/sh	+$112 cycle +$667 [-$441…+$235] · 43% credit	78% surv 73%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.96/sh	-$480 cycle +$75 [-$1,200…-$423] · 5% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $555 debit $480 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,145/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,163/mo
vs 50% target ($3,509/mo)	+19%
vs normal income ($7,018/mo)	59% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,670/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $388 is $75 below CC-SS $462.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,699
… as % of IC ($68,000)	54.0%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	28.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,160

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $389.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $388)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $384.12	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $384-389.15	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $389.15	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$388.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$555	$-51,736	+$6,401	+$525
+2.5%	$397.70 (2.0σ)	$-4,295	$-49,811	+$8,327	-$4,325
+5%	$407.40 (3.1σ)	$-9,145	$-47,885	+$10,252	-$9,175
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.4σ)	$-33,445	$-38,238	+$19,899	-$32,975

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $462.51, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,890

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $388): -$36,699

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,946 (+$21,191 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,971 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,975, the opportunity cost of earning $4,163/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,400, position total $-45,402 (+$12,736 vs today)

33% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$391, 3.0% OTM, 88% surv

Sell 5 × $391 3.0% OTM over spot $379.63 10 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.70 mid)

= $315 credit for the 4d cycle → $2,362/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $391)

88%

Breach risk

12%

POP (stays ≤ $391.70)

89%

EV / mo

+$1,092

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.0-7.0] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~8.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,482

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,347

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$405 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Buyback gross: $4.70/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $3.05–$5.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 506 simulated challenges: the $391 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $394 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$391	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.04/sh	+$518 cycle +$833 [+$434…+$753] · 98% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.36/sh	+$178 cycle +$493 [+$2…+$372] · 75% credit	69% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$401	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.62/sh	+$311 cycle +$626 [-$74…+$574] · 72% credit	77% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$403	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.06/sh	+$30 cycle +$345 [-$401…+$264] · 42% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$405	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.46/sh	-$229 cycle +$86 [-$705…-$12] · 24% credit	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $315 debit $229 (73% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,687/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,362/mo
vs 50% target ($3,509/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($7,018/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,870/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $391 is $72 below CC-SS $462.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$35,439
… as % of IC ($68,000)	52.1%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	27.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,172

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $391.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $391)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $387.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $387-391.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $391.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$391.00 (1.3σ)	$315	$-49,881	+$8,257	+$285
+2.5%	$400.77 (2.3σ)	$-4,572	$-47,940	+$10,197	-$4,602
+5%	$410.55 (3.4σ)	$-9,460	$-46,000	+$12,138	-$9,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.4σ)	$-32,185	$-36,978	+$21,159	-$31,715

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $462.51, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,890

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $391): -$35,439

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-35,686 (+$22,451 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,971 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,715, the opportunity cost of earning $2,362/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,140, position total $-44,142 (+$13,996 vs today)

100% normal · sell 5×$384, 1.2% OTM, 68% surv

Sell 5 × $384 1.2% OTM over spot $379.63 10 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.25 mid)

= $1,075 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,062/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $384)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $386.25)

76%

EV / mo

+$2,417

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [3.3-6.6] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.4 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 40% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~27.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $26,072

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

47%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$499

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$408 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $4.45/sh now → $3.15 mid-life (likely $3.76–$6.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,400 simulated challenges: the $384 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $387 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$384	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.96/sh	+$482 cycle +$1,557 [+$267…+$477] · 97% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$392	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.04/sh	+$522 cycle +$1,597 [-$48…+$462] · 71% credit	76% surv 68%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.29/sh	+$143 cycle +$1,218 [-$160…+$117] · 39% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$395	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.11/sh	+$53 cycle +$1,128 [-$634…-$45] · 22% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$408	24 Jul 2026	16d left	-$2.13/sh	-$1,067 cycle +$8 [-$2,187…-$1,296]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $1,075 debit $1,067 (99% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $950/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,062/mo
vs 50% target ($3,509/mo)	+130%
vs normal income ($7,018/mo)	115% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,570/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $384 is $79 below CC-SS $462.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$38,179
… as % of IC ($68,000)	56.1%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	29.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,185

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $386.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $384)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $380.16	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $380-386.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$384.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,075	$-54,010	+$4,127	+$1,045
+2.5%	$393.60 (1.5σ)	$-3,725	$-52,104	+$6,033	-$3,755
+5%	$403.20 (2.6σ)	$-8,525	$-50,199	+$7,939	-$8,555
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.4σ)	$-34,925	$-39,718	+$18,419	-$34,455

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $462.51, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,890

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $384): -$38,179

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,426 (+$19,711 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,971 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,455, the opportunity cost of earning $8,062/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,880, position total $-46,882 (+$11,256 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 5×$400, 5.4% OTM, 97% surv

Sell 5 × $400 5.4% OTM over spot $379.63 10 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.16 mid)

= $75 credit for the 4d cycle → $562/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $400)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $400.16)

97%

EV / mo

+$396

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.2 mo [2.7-6.3] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.0 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 30% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,355

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,703

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$413 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Buyback gross: $5.03/sh now → $3.56 mid-life (likely $2.86–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $400 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $403 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$400	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.13/sh	+$565 cycle +$640 [+$563…+$833] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$401	13 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.45/sh	+$224 cycle +$299 [+$155…+$473] · 90% credit	69% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$411	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.60/sh	+$301 cycle +$376 [+$89…+$642] · 79% credit	77% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$413	24 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.05/sh	+$26 cycle +$101 [-$220…+$356] · 56% credit	79% surv 74%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$562/mo
vs 50% target ($3,509/mo)	-84%
vs normal income ($7,018/mo)	8% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$70/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $400 is $63 below CC-SS $462.51: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,179
… as % of IC ($68,000)	45.9%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	24.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,142

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $400.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $400)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $396.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $396-400.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $400.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$400.00 (2.2σ)	$75	$-43,834	+$14,303	+$45
+2.5%	$410.00 (3.4σ)	$-4,925	$-41,849	+$16,288	-$4,955
+5%	$420.00 (4.5σ)	$-9,925	$-39,864	+$18,273	-$9,955
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (8.4σ)	$-27,925	$-32,718	+$25,419	-$27,455

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $462.51, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,138

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$57,890

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $400): -$31,179

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,426 (+$26,711 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,971 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,455, the opportunity cost of earning $562/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,880, position total $-39,882 (+$18,256 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 95 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.397 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$57,890 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,971

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$388	4d	10 Jul 2026	$1.11	5/5	$4,163	$3,670	80%	83%	+$1,306	-$36,699	54.0%	$-36,946 (vs do-nothing $-32,975)
$387	4d	10 Jul 2026	$1.29	4/5	$3,870	$3,394	77%	81%	+$1,093	-$29,687	43.7%	$-30,679 (vs do-nothing $-26,708)
$387	7d	13 Jul 2026	$1.77	5/5	$3,793	$3,300	75%	80%	+$1,162	-$36,869	54.2%	$-37,116 (vs do-nothing $-33,145)
$386	4d	10 Jul 2026	$1.54	4/5	$4,620	$4,144	74%	79%	+$1,190	-$29,987	44.1%	$-30,979 (vs do-nothing $-27,008)
$389	11d	17 Jul 2026	$2.68	5/5	$3,655	$3,162	74%	79%	+$1,249	-$35,414	52.1%	$-35,661 (vs do-nothing $-31,690)
$388	9d	15 Jul 2026	$2.31	5/5	$3,850	$3,357	74%	79%	+$1,194	-$36,099	53.1%	$-36,346 (vs do-nothing $-32,375)
$386	7d	13 Jul 2026	$2.05	4/5	$3,514	$3,038	72%	78%	+$1,006	-$29,783	43.8%	$-30,775 (vs do-nothing $-26,804)
$388	11d	17 Jul 2026	$2.97	5/5	$4,050	$3,557	72%	78%	+$1,309	-$35,769	52.6%	$-36,016 (vs do-nothing $-32,045)
$387	9d	15 Jul 2026	$2.58	5/5	$4,300	$3,807	71%	78%	+$1,237	-$36,464	53.6%	$-36,711 (vs do-nothing $-32,740)
$385	4d	10 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/5	$4,118	$3,658	71%	77%	+$1,090	-$22,703	33.4%	$-24,440 (vs do-nothing $-20,469)
$387	11d	17 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$3,600	$3,124	69%	77%	+$1,108	-$28,883	42.5%	$-29,875 (vs do-nothing $-25,904)
$385	7d	13 Jul 2026	$2.38	4/5	$4,080	$3,604	69%	76%	+$1,106	-$30,051	44.2%	$-31,043 (vs do-nothing $-27,072)
$386	9d	15 Jul 2026	$2.75	4/5	$3,667	$3,190	69%	76%	+$851	-$29,503	43.4%	$-30,495 (vs do-nothing $-26,524)

Show 82 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 82.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$384	4d	10 Jul 2026	$2.15	3/5	$4,838	$4,378	68%	76%	+$1,450	-$22,907	33.7%	$-24,644 (vs do-nothing $-20,673)
$387	14d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	5/5	$3,804	$3,311	68%	76%	+$964	-$35,979	52.9%	$-36,226 (vs do-nothing $-32,255)
$388	18d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/5	$3,625	$3,132	68%	76%	+$1,004	-$35,079	51.6%	$-35,326 (vs do-nothing $-31,355)
$386	11d	17 Jul 2026	$3.65	4/5	$3,982	$3,506	67%	75%	+$1,159	-$29,143	42.9%	$-30,135 (vs do-nothing $-26,164)
$385	9d	15 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$4,400	$3,924	66%	75%	+$1,176	-$29,683	43.7%	$-30,675 (vs do-nothing $-26,704)
$387	18d	24 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/5	$3,917	$3,424	66%	74%	+$1,033	-$35,404	52.1%	$-35,651 (vs do-nothing $-31,680)
$386	14d	20 Jul 2026	$3.90	5/5	$4,179	$3,686	66%	74%	+$1,009	-$36,304	53.4%	$-36,551 (vs do-nothing $-32,580)
$384	7d	13 Jul 2026	$2.72	4/5	$4,663	$4,187	66%	74%	+$1,158	-$30,315	44.6%	$-31,307 (vs do-nothing $-27,336)
$385	11d	17 Jul 2026	$4.05	4/5	$4,418	$3,942	65%	74%	+$1,231	-$29,383	43.2%	$-30,375 (vs do-nothing $-26,404)
$383	4d	10 Jul 2026	$2.52	2/5	$3,780	$3,336	64%	74%	+$1,038	-$15,397	22.6%	$-17,879 (vs do-nothing $-13,908)
$386	18d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	5/5	$4,250	$3,757	64%	73%	+$1,084	-$35,704	52.5%	$-35,951 (vs do-nothing $-31,980)
$385	14d	20 Jul 2026	$4.25	4/5	$3,643	$3,167	64%	73%	+$820	-$29,303	43.1%	$-30,295 (vs do-nothing $-26,324)
$384	9d	15 Jul 2026	$3.65	3/5	$3,650	$3,190	63%	73%	+$893	-$22,457	33.0%	$-24,194 (vs do-nothing $-20,223)
$383	7d	13 Jul 2026	$3.10	3/5	$3,986	$3,526	62%	72%	+$907	-$22,922	33.7%	$-24,659 (vs do-nothing $-20,688)
$384	11d	17 Jul 2026	$4.40	3/5	$3,600	$3,140	62%	72%	+$910	-$22,232	32.7%	$-23,969 (vs do-nothing $-19,998)
$385	18d	24 Jul 2026	$5.50	4/5	$3,667	$3,190	62%	72%	+$892	-$28,803	42.4%	$-29,795 (vs do-nothing $-25,824)
$384	14d	20 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/5	$3,986	$3,509	61%	72%	+$852	-$29,543	43.4%	$-30,535 (vs do-nothing $-26,564)
$383	9d	15 Jul 2026	$4.05	3/5	$4,050	$3,590	60%	72%	+$918	-$22,637	33.3%	$-24,374 (vs do-nothing $-20,403)
$382	4d	10 Jul 2026	$2.93	2/5	$4,395	$3,951	60%	72%	+$1,090	-$15,515	22.8%	$-17,997 (vs do-nothing $-14,026)
$384	18d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/5	$3,967	$3,490	60%	71%	+$932	-$29,023	42.7%	$-30,015 (vs do-nothing $-26,044)
$383	11d	17 Jul 2026	$4.80	3/5	$3,927	$3,467	59%	71%	+$910	-$22,412	33.0%	$-24,149 (vs do-nothing $-20,178)
$383	14d	20 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/5	$4,371	$3,895	59%	71%	+$900	-$29,763	43.8%	$-30,755 (vs do-nothing $-26,784)
$382	7d	13 Jul 2026	$3.50	3/5	$4,500	$4,040	59%	71%	+$917	-$23,102	34.0%	$-24,839 (vs do-nothing $-20,868)
$383	18d	24 Jul 2026	$6.35	4/5	$4,233	$3,757	58%	70%	+$922	-$29,263	43.0%	$-30,255 (vs do-nothing $-26,284)
$382	9d	15 Jul 2026	$4.50	3/5	$4,500	$4,040	58%	70%	+$958	-$22,802	33.5%	$-24,539 (vs do-nothing $-20,568)
$382	11d	17 Jul 2026	$5.25	3/5	$4,295	$3,836	57%	70%	+$925	-$22,577	33.2%	$-24,314 (vs do-nothing $-20,343)
$382	14d	20 Jul 2026	$5.55	3/5	$3,568	$3,108	57%	70%	+$692	-$22,487	33.1%	$-24,224 (vs do-nothing $-20,253)
$381	4d	10 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$5,025	$4,581	56%	70%	+$1,077	-$15,631	23.0%	$-18,113 (vs do-nothing $-14,142)
$382	18d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	4/5	$4,567	$4,090	56%	69%	+$962	-$29,463	43.3%	$-30,455 (vs do-nothing $-26,484)
$381	7d	13 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/5	$5,143	$4,683	55%	69%	+$1,000	-$23,252	34.2%	$-24,989 (vs do-nothing $-21,018)
$381	9d	15 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$5,000	$4,540	55%	69%	+$1,011	-$22,952	33.8%	$-24,689 (vs do-nothing $-20,718)
$381	11d	17 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$4,705	$4,245	54%	69%	+$953	-$22,727	33.4%	$-24,464 (vs do-nothing $-20,493)
$381	14d	20 Jul 2026	$6.05	3/5	$3,889	$3,429	54%	68%	+$720	-$22,637	33.3%	$-24,374 (vs do-nothing $-20,403)
$381	18d	24 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$3,675	$3,215	54%	68%	+$738	-$22,247	32.7%	$-23,984 (vs do-nothing $-20,013)
$380	4d	10 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$5,775	$5,331	52%	68%	+$1,101	-$15,731	23.1%	$-18,213 (vs do-nothing $-14,242)
$380	7d	13 Jul 2026	$4.50	2/5	$3,857	$3,414	52%	67%	+$685	-$15,601	22.9%	$-18,083 (vs do-nothing $-14,112)
$380	9d	15 Jul 2026	$5.50	2/5	$3,667	$3,223	52%	68%	+$685	-$15,401	22.6%	$-17,883 (vs do-nothing $-13,912)
$380	18d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	3/5	$3,925	$3,465	52%	68%	+$741	-$22,397	32.9%	$-24,134 (vs do-nothing $-20,163)
$380	11d	17 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$5,114	$4,654	52%	67%	+$954	-$22,877	33.6%	$-24,614 (vs do-nothing $-20,643)
$380	14d	20 Jul 2026	$6.55	3/5	$4,211	$3,751	52%	68%	+$727	-$22,787	33.5%	$-24,524 (vs do-nothing $-20,553)
$379	18d	24 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$4,200	$3,740	50%	67%	+$757	-$22,532	33.1%	$-24,269 (vs do-nothing $-20,298)
$379	14d	20 Jul 2026	$7.10	3/5	$4,564	$4,104	49%	67%	+$745	-$22,922	33.7%	$-24,659 (vs do-nothing $-20,688)
$379	11d	17 Jul 2026	$6.80	2/5	$3,709	$3,266	49%	66%	+$646	-$15,341	22.6%	$-17,823 (vs do-nothing $-13,852)
$379	9d	15 Jul 2026	$6.05	2/5	$4,033	$3,590	49%	66%	+$705	-$15,491	22.8%	$-17,973 (vs do-nothing $-14,002)
$379	7d	13 Jul 2026	$5.00	2/5	$4,286	$3,842	48%	66%	+$665	-$15,701	23.1%	$-18,183 (vs do-nothing $-14,212)
$379	4d	10 Jul 2026	$4.40	2/5	$6,600	$6,156	48%	67%	+$1,509	-$15,821	23.3%	$-18,303 (vs do-nothing $-14,332)
$378	18d	24 Jul 2026	$8.90	3/5	$4,450	$3,990	48%	66%	+$734	-$22,682	33.4%	$-24,419 (vs do-nothing $-20,448)
$378	14d	20 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$4,950	$4,490	47%	66%	+$775	-$23,042	33.9%	$-24,779 (vs do-nothing $-20,808)
$378	11d	17 Jul 2026	$7.35	2/5	$4,009	$3,566	47%	65%	+$639	-$15,431	22.7%	$-17,913 (vs do-nothing $-13,942)
$378	9d	15 Jul 2026	$6.60	2/5	$4,400	$3,956	46%	65%	+$700	-$15,581	22.9%	$-18,063 (vs do-nothing $-14,092)
$377	18d	24 Jul 2026	$9.55	3/5	$4,775	$4,315	46%	65%	+$774	-$22,787	33.5%	$-24,524 (vs do-nothing $-20,553)
$378	7d	13 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/5	$4,800	$4,356	45%	64%	+$694	-$15,781	23.2%	$-18,263 (vs do-nothing $-14,292)
$377	14d	20 Jul 2026	$8.30	2/5	$3,557	$3,114	45%	65%	+$523	-$15,441	22.7%	$-17,923 (vs do-nothing $-13,952)
$377	11d	17 Jul 2026	$7.95	2/5	$4,336	$3,893	44%	64%	+$642	-$15,511	22.8%	$-17,993 (vs do-nothing $-14,022)
$378	4d	10 Jul 2026	$4.95	1/5	$3,712	$3,285	44%	64%	+$531	-$7,956	11.7%	$-11,182 (vs do-nothing $-7,211)
$376	18d	24 Jul 2026	$10.10	3/5	$5,050	$4,590	44%	64%	+$751	-$22,922	33.7%	$-24,659 (vs do-nothing $-20,688)
$377	9d	15 Jul 2026	$7.15	2/5	$4,767	$4,323	43%	64%	+$672	-$15,671	23.0%	$-18,153 (vs do-nothing $-14,182)
$376	14d	20 Jul 2026	$8.90	2/5	$3,814	$3,371	42%	64%	+$517	-$15,521	22.8%	$-18,003 (vs do-nothing $-14,032)
$376	11d	17 Jul 2026	$8.55	2/5	$4,664	$4,220	42%	63%	+$628	-$15,591	22.9%	$-18,073 (vs do-nothing $-14,102)
$375	18d	24 Jul 2026	$10.75	2/5	$3,583	$3,140	42%	63%	+$511	-$15,351	22.6%	$-17,833 (vs do-nothing $-13,862)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 23:49