FORTRESS FIGHT: GLD @ $380.38

BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $463.39 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-07 00:32 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GLD @ $380.38 UNDERWATER $75.62 (16.6% below BE SS)

PARTIAL: 5 of 10 contracts already capped (5x $410C). FIGHTing the 5 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.

5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $463.39 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $320 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $173.979/sh)

SP: $450 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $43.857/sh)

HP: $330 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $4.500/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$128,000	(ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,465/mo	45% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$490/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-58,312	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,733/mo

HEDGE COVER
$490/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,465/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
9.1 mo to earn back $68,000

ML VELOCITY
17.1 mo to earn back $128,000

Deep drawdown (unpriceable at CC-SS): no listed call within 92% of CC-SS $463.39 in the fetched chain; the deepest available is $393C (13d, $2,285/mo, a BELOW-CC-SS strike, not a safe CC). Income at true CC-SS ≈ $0, so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$248

Hole (after banked)

$58,065

was $58,312 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,650

CC-SS ratchet

$463.74 → $463.39

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $410C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$3.30	$1,650	2026-07-02

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 17 (live) · RSI 40 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 48 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $419.91 (+10%) · daily UBB $400.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $388 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 78%, breach 22%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,733/mo); it brings $3,975/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $383/6d for $8,125/mo, but breach risk rises to 39% (+17pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 5 × $405/8d (96% survival, $506/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $36,899 (54% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $456, recoverable in 4.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-58,362 and cuts bleed by $490/mo.

📊 Income ladder, one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $388 (primary), 78% survival, breach 22%, $3,975/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $390 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 83% (breach 22% → 17%) for $1,075/mo less (27% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $390 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect GLD to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on GLD are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$388, 2.0% OTM, 78% surv

Sell 5 × $388 2.0% OTM over spot $380.38 13 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.69 mid)

= $795 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,975/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $388)

78%

Breach risk

22%

POP (stays ≤ $389.69)

82%

EV / mo

+$1,679

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.5 mo [3.2-6.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 31% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~15.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,093

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

33%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$992

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$404 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.74–$5.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 995 simulated challenges: the $388 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $390 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$388	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.05/sh	+$524 cycle +$1,319 [+$407…+$587] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.69/sh	+$344 cycle +$1,139 [-$74…+$424] · 67% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$390	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.18/sh	+$89 cycle +$884 [-$124…+$87] · 45% credit	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$398	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.00/sh	+$0 cycle +$795 [-$492…+$42] · 27% credit	78% surv 71%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	24 Jul 2026	14d left	-$1.45/sh	-$726 cycle +$69 [-$1,399…-$755] · 1% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $795 debit $726 (91% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$69 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,272/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,975/mo
vs 50% target ($3,733/mo)	+6%
vs normal income ($7,465/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,485/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $388 is $75 below CC-SS $463.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,899
… as % of IC ($68,000)	54.3%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	28.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,362

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.59 collected) or spot ≥ $389.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $388)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $384.12	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $384-389.69	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $389.69	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$388.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$795	$-52,187	+$6,125	+$765
+2.5%	$397.70 (1.6σ)	$-4,055	$-50,252	+$8,060	-$4,085
+5%	$407.40 (2.5σ)	$-8,905	$-48,317	+$9,995	-$8,935
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.9σ)	$-33,205	$-38,621	+$19,691	-$32,735

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,312

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,065

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $388): -$36,899

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,147 (+$21,165 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,735, the opportunity cost of earning $3,975/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,160, position total $-45,821 (+$12,491 vs today)

33% normal, RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$390, 2.5% OTM, 83% surv

Sell 5 × $390 2.5% OTM over spot $380.38 13 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.25 mid)

= $580 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

83%

Breach risk

17%

POP (stays ≤ $391.25)

86%

EV / mo

+$1,396

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.0-6.8] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 32% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 25% without) · ~11.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,384

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,237

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$404 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $5.14/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $392 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.06/sh	+$531 cycle +$1,111 [+$428…+$615] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$398	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.74/sh	+$372 cycle +$952 [+$8…+$561] · 76% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.19/sh	+$96 cycle +$676 [-$106…+$153] · 55% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$400	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$25 cycle +$605 [-$405…+$198] · 38% credit	77% surv 71%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	24 Jul 2026	14d left	-$0.99/sh	-$495 cycle +$85 [-$1,057…-$337] · 9% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $580 debit $495 (85% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$85 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,833/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,900/mo
vs 50% target ($3,733/mo)	-22%
vs normal income ($7,465/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,410/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $390 is $73 below CC-SS $463.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,114
… as % of IC ($68,000)	53.1%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	28.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,355

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $391.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $386.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $386-391.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $391.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$390.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$580	$-51,003	+$7,309	+$550
+2.5%	$399.75 (1.8σ)	$-4,295	$-49,058	+$9,254	-$4,325
+5%	$409.50 (2.7σ)	$-9,170	$-47,113	+$11,199	-$9,200
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.9σ)	$-32,420	$-37,836	+$20,476	-$31,950

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,312

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,065

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $390): -$36,114

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,362 (+$21,950 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,950, the opportunity cost of earning $2,900/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,375, position total $-45,036 (+$13,276 vs today)

100% normal · sell 5×$383, 0.7% OTM, 61% surv

Sell 5 × $383 0.7% OTM over spot $380.38 13 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.38 mid)

= $1,625 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,125/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $383)

61%

Breach risk

39%

POP (stays ≤ $386.38)

72%

EV / mo

+$2,253

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.9 mo [3.2-6.7] median, 0.4 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 34% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 24% without) · ~32.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,879

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

64%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$87

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$405 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $4.43–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,917 simulated challenges: the $383 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $386 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$383	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$1.01/sh	+$506 cycle +$2,131 [+$344…+$451] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$390	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.94/sh	+$469 cycle +$2,094 [-$60…+$296] · 69% credit	75% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$385	15 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.15/sh	+$73 cycle +$1,698 [-$204…-$22] · 20% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$392	24 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.21/sh	+$107 cycle +$1,732 [-$521…-$97] · 18% credit	77% surv 70%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$405	24 Jul 2026	14d left	-$2.35/sh	-$1,173 cycle +$452 [-$2,289…-$1,543]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,625 debit $1,173 (72% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$452 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,157/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,125/mo
vs 50% target ($3,733/mo)	+118%
vs normal income ($7,465/mo)	109% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,635/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $383 is $80 below CC-SS $463.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$38,569
… as % of IC ($68,000)	56.7%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	30.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,375

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $386.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $383)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $379.17	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $379-386.38	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $386.38	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$383.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,625	$-54,855	+$3,458	+$1,595
+2.5%	$392.57 (1.1σ)	$-3,162	$-52,945	+$5,368	-$3,192
+5%	$402.15 (2.0σ)	$-7,950	$-51,034	+$7,278	-$7,980
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.9σ)	$-34,875	$-40,291	+$18,021	-$34,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,312

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,065

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $383): -$38,569

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,817 (+$19,495 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,405, the opportunity cost of earning $8,125/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,830, position total $-47,491 (+$10,821 vs today)

cover hedge · sell 5×$405, 6.5% OTM, 96% surv

Sell 5 × $405 6.5% OTM over spot $380.38 15 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.34 mid)

= $135 credit for the 8d cycle → $506/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $405)

96%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $405.34)

96%

EV / mo

+$348

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.6 mo [3.3-6.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (4.7 mo) · 28% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 28% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-306

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,350

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$413 @ 75% POP

66% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.03/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $3.07–$6.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 137 simulated challenges: the $405 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $408 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$405	17 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.99/sh	+$493 cycle +$628 [+$518…+$815] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$407	17 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.11/sh	+$54 cycle +$189 [+$8…+$328] · 76% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$413	24 Jul 2026	13d left	+$0.02/sh	+$9 cycle +$144 [-$78…+$687] · 66% credit	75% surv 66%
SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$506/mo
vs 50% target ($3,733/mo)	-86%
vs normal income ($7,465/mo)	7% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$16/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $405 is $58 below CC-SS $463.39: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$29,059
… as % of IC ($68,000)	42.7%
… as % of ML ($128,000)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-58,348

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $405.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $405)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $400.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $400.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $401-405.34	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $405.34	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$405.00 (1.9σ)	$135	$-40,956	+$17,357	+$105
+2.5%	$415.12 (2.7σ)	$-4,927	$-38,936	+$19,377	-$4,957
+5%	$425.25 (3.5σ)	$-9,990	$-36,916	+$21,397	-$10,020
SS (= V-bounce)	$456.00 (6.0σ)	$-25,365	$-30,781	+$27,531	-$24,895

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.39, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-58,312

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$58,065

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $405): -$29,059

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,307 (+$29,005 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,412 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,895, the opportunity cost of earning $506/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $419.91 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,320, position total $-37,981 (+$20,331 vs today)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 83 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.399 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$58,065 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,412

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$388	6d	13 Jul 2026	$1.59	5/5	$3,975	$3,485	78%	82%	+$1,679	-$36,899	54.3%	$-37,147 (vs do-nothing $-32,735)
$389	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.09	5/5	$3,919	$3,429	76%	81%	+$1,456	-$36,149	53.2%	$-36,397 (vs do-nothing $-31,985)
$390	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.50	5/5	$3,750	$3,260	75%	81%	+$1,500	-$35,444	52.1%	$-35,692 (vs do-nothing $-31,280)
$387	6d	13 Jul 2026	$1.85	5/5	$4,625	$4,135	75%	80%	+$1,814	-$37,269	54.8%	$-37,517 (vs do-nothing $-33,105)
$389	10d	17 Jul 2026	$2.76	5/5	$4,140	$3,650	73%	79%	+$1,550	-$35,814	52.7%	$-36,062 (vs do-nothing $-31,650)
$388	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.39	5/5	$4,481	$3,991	73%	79%	+$1,600	-$36,499	53.7%	$-36,747 (vs do-nothing $-32,335)
$386	6d	13 Jul 2026	$2.17	4/5	$4,340	$3,868	71%	78%	+$1,605	-$30,088	44.2%	$-31,168 (vs do-nothing $-26,756)
$388	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	5/5	$4,575	$4,085	71%	78%	+$1,603	-$36,169	53.2%	$-36,417 (vs do-nothing $-32,005)
$387	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.67	4/5	$4,005	$3,533	70%	77%	+$1,319	-$29,488	43.4%	$-30,568 (vs do-nothing $-26,156)
$388	13d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	5/5	$3,808	$3,318	69%	77%	+$1,091	-$36,044	53.0%	$-36,292 (vs do-nothing $-31,880)
$387	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.40	4/5	$4,080	$3,608	68%	76%	+$1,362	-$29,196	42.9%	$-30,276 (vs do-nothing $-25,864)
$385	6d	13 Jul 2026	$2.51	3/5	$3,765	$3,311	68%	76%	+$1,289	-$22,764	33.5%	$-24,677 (vs do-nothing $-20,265)
$386	8d	15 Jul 2026	$2.92	4/5	$4,380	$3,908	68%	76%	+$1,263	-$29,788	43.8%	$-30,868 (vs do-nothing $-26,456)

Show 70 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 70.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$387	13d	20 Jul 2026	$3.70	5/5	$4,269	$3,779	67%	76%	+$1,219	-$36,344	53.4%	$-36,592 (vs do-nothing $-32,180)
$388	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	5/5	$3,971	$3,480	67%	75%	+$1,198	-$35,444	52.1%	$-35,692 (vs do-nothing $-31,280)
$386	10d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$4,500	$4,028	66%	75%	+$1,405	-$29,456	43.3%	$-30,536 (vs do-nothing $-26,124)
$387	17d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	5/5	$4,324	$3,833	65%	74%	+$1,270	-$35,744	52.6%	$-35,992 (vs do-nothing $-31,580)
$386	13d	20 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$4,615	$4,125	65%	74%	+$1,200	-$36,694	54.0%	$-36,942 (vs do-nothing $-32,530)
$385	8d	15 Jul 2026	$3.40	3/5	$3,825	$3,371	65%	74%	+$1,125	-$22,497	33.1%	$-24,410 (vs do-nothing $-19,998)
$384	6d	13 Jul 2026	$2.85	3/5	$4,275	$3,821	64%	74%	+$1,310	-$22,962	33.8%	$-24,875 (vs do-nothing $-20,463)
$385	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	3/5	$3,735	$3,281	63%	74%	+$1,103	-$22,272	32.8%	$-24,185 (vs do-nothing $-19,773)
$386	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.25	5/5	$4,632	$4,142	63%	73%	+$1,275	-$36,069	53.0%	$-36,317 (vs do-nothing $-31,905)
$385	13d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$4,108	$3,636	62%	73%	+$1,056	-$29,576	43.5%	$-30,656 (vs do-nothing $-26,244)
$384	8d	15 Jul 2026	$3.70	3/5	$4,162	$3,708	62%	73%	+$1,060	-$22,707	33.4%	$-24,620 (vs do-nothing $-20,208)
$385	17d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	4/5	$3,988	$3,516	61%	72%	+$1,041	-$29,096	42.8%	$-30,176 (vs do-nothing $-25,764)
$384	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.55	3/5	$4,095	$3,641	61%	72%	+$1,122	-$22,452	33.0%	$-24,365 (vs do-nothing $-19,953)
$383	6d	13 Jul 2026	$3.25	3/5	$4,875	$4,421	61%	72%	+$1,352	-$23,142	34.0%	$-25,055 (vs do-nothing $-20,643)
$384	13d	20 Jul 2026	$4.85	4/5	$4,477	$4,005	60%	72%	+$1,076	-$29,816	43.8%	$-30,896 (vs do-nothing $-26,484)
$383	8d	15 Jul 2026	$4.20	3/5	$4,725	$4,271	59%	71%	+$1,176	-$22,857	33.6%	$-24,770 (vs do-nothing $-20,358)
$384	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	4/5	$4,306	$3,834	59%	71%	+$1,078	-$29,316	43.1%	$-30,396 (vs do-nothing $-25,984)
$383	10d	17 Jul 2026	$4.95	3/5	$4,455	$4,001	58%	71%	+$1,112	-$22,632	33.3%	$-24,545 (vs do-nothing $-20,133)
$383	13d	20 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$4,892	$4,420	57%	71%	+$1,111	-$30,036	44.2%	$-31,116 (vs do-nothing $-26,704)
$382	6d	13 Jul 2026	$3.70	3/5	$5,550	$5,096	57%	70%	+$1,398	-$23,307	34.3%	$-25,220 (vs do-nothing $-20,808)
$383	17d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	4/5	$4,624	$4,151	57%	70%	+$1,095	-$29,536	43.4%	$-30,616 (vs do-nothing $-26,204)
$382	8d	15 Jul 2026	$4.60	3/5	$5,175	$4,721	56%	70%	+$1,137	-$23,037	33.9%	$-24,950 (vs do-nothing $-20,538)
$382	10d	17 Jul 2026	$5.45	3/5	$4,905	$4,451	55%	70%	+$1,162	-$22,782	33.5%	$-24,695 (vs do-nothing $-20,283)
$382	13d	20 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$3,981	$3,527	55%	69%	+$835	-$22,692	33.4%	$-24,605 (vs do-nothing $-20,193)
$382	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.10	3/5	$3,759	$3,305	54%	69%	+$872	-$22,287	32.8%	$-24,200 (vs do-nothing $-19,788)
$381	6d	13 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$4,200	$3,764	53%	69%	+$965	-$15,638	23.0%	$-18,384 (vs do-nothing $-13,972)
$381	8d	15 Jul 2026	$5.15	2/5	$3,862	$3,426	53%	68%	+$814	-$15,448	22.7%	$-18,194 (vs do-nothing $-13,782)
$381	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$5,400	$4,946	52%	68%	+$1,225	-$22,917	33.7%	$-24,830 (vs do-nothing $-20,418)
$381	13d	20 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$4,327	$3,873	52%	68%	+$847	-$22,842	33.6%	$-24,755 (vs do-nothing $-20,343)
$381	17d	24 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/5	$4,024	$3,569	52%	68%	+$882	-$22,437	33.0%	$-24,350 (vs do-nothing $-19,938)
$380	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	3/5	$4,315	$3,861	50%	67%	+$904	-$22,572	33.2%	$-24,485 (vs do-nothing $-20,073)
$380	13d	20 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$4,742	$4,288	50%	67%	+$904	-$22,962	33.8%	$-24,875 (vs do-nothing $-20,463)
$380	10d	17 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/5	$3,930	$3,494	50%	67%	+$838	-$15,368	22.6%	$-18,114 (vs do-nothing $-13,702)
$380	8d	15 Jul 2026	$5.70	2/5	$4,275	$3,839	50%	67%	+$841	-$15,538	22.8%	$-18,284 (vs do-nothing $-13,872)
$380	6d	13 Jul 2026	$4.70	2/5	$4,700	$4,264	49%	67%	+$951	-$15,738	23.1%	$-18,484 (vs do-nothing $-14,072)
$379	17d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	3/5	$4,606	$4,152	48%	66%	+$911	-$22,707	33.4%	$-24,620 (vs do-nothing $-20,208)
$379	13d	20 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$5,088	$4,634	47%	66%	+$868	-$23,112	34.0%	$-25,025 (vs do-nothing $-20,613)
$379	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.05	2/5	$4,230	$3,794	47%	66%	+$809	-$15,468	22.7%	$-18,214 (vs do-nothing $-13,802)
$379	8d	15 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$4,650	$4,214	46%	66%	+$802	-$15,638	23.0%	$-18,384 (vs do-nothing $-13,972)
$378	17d	24 Jul 2026	$9.25	3/5	$4,897	$4,443	46%	66%	+$903	-$22,842	33.6%	$-24,755 (vs do-nothing $-20,343)
$379	6d	13 Jul 2026	$5.25	2/5	$5,250	$4,814	45%	65%	+$939	-$15,828	23.3%	$-18,574 (vs do-nothing $-14,162)
$378	13d	20 Jul 2026	$7.90	3/5	$5,469	$5,015	45%	65%	+$844	-$23,247	34.2%	$-25,160 (vs do-nothing $-20,748)
$378	10d	17 Jul 2026	$7.60	2/5	$4,560	$4,124	44%	65%	+$789	-$15,558	22.9%	$-18,304 (vs do-nothing $-13,892)
$377	17d	24 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$5,215	$4,761	44%	65%	+$907	-$22,962	33.8%	$-24,875 (vs do-nothing $-20,463)
$378	8d	15 Jul 2026	$6.80	2/5	$5,100	$4,664	43%	64%	+$809	-$15,718	23.1%	$-18,464 (vs do-nothing $-14,052)
$377	13d	20 Jul 2026	$8.55	2/5	$3,946	$3,510	42%	64%	+$579	-$15,568	22.9%	$-18,314 (vs do-nothing $-13,902)
$377	10d	17 Jul 2026	$8.20	2/5	$4,920	$4,484	42%	64%	+$779	-$15,638	23.0%	$-18,384 (vs do-nothing $-13,972)
$378	6d	13 Jul 2026	$5.85	2/5	$5,850	$5,414	42%	64%	+$931	-$15,908	23.4%	$-18,654 (vs do-nothing $-14,242)
$376	17d	24 Jul 2026	$10.50	3/5	$5,559	$5,105	42%	64%	+$924	-$23,067	33.9%	$-24,980 (vs do-nothing $-20,568)
$377	8d	15 Jul 2026	$7.45	2/5	$5,588	$5,151	41%	63%	+$826	-$15,788	23.2%	$-18,534 (vs do-nothing $-14,122)
$376	13d	20 Jul 2026	$9.20	2/5	$4,246	$3,810	40%	63%	+$581	-$15,638	23.0%	$-18,384 (vs do-nothing $-13,972)
$375	17d	24 Jul 2026	$11.10	2/5	$3,918	$3,482	40%	63%	+$600	-$15,458	22.7%	$-18,204 (vs do-nothing $-13,792)
$376	10d	17 Jul 2026	$8.85	2/5	$5,310	$4,874	39%	63%	+$780	-$15,708	23.1%	$-18,454 (vs do-nothing $-14,042)
$377	6d	13 Jul 2026	$6.45	2/5	$6,450	$6,014	38%	63%	+$880	-$15,988	23.5%	$-18,734 (vs do-nothing $-14,322)
$375	13d	20 Jul 2026	$9.85	2/5	$4,546	$4,110	38%	62%	+$571	-$15,708	23.1%	$-18,454 (vs do-nothing $-14,042)
$376	8d	15 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/5	$6,075	$5,639	38%	62%	+$817	-$15,858	23.3%	$-18,604 (vs do-nothing $-14,192)
$374	17d	24 Jul 2026	$11.80	2/5	$4,165	$3,729	38%	62%	+$611	-$15,518	22.8%	$-18,264 (vs do-nothing $-13,852)
$375	10d	17 Jul 2026	$9.55	2/5	$5,730	$5,294	37%	62%	+$792	-$15,768	23.2%	$-18,514 (vs do-nothing $-14,102)
$373	17d	24 Jul 2026	$12.40	2/5	$4,376	$3,940	36%	62%	+$579	-$15,598	22.9%	$-18,344 (vs do-nothing $-13,932)
$374	13d	20 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$4,846	$4,410	36%	62%	+$549	-$15,778	23.2%	$-18,524 (vs do-nothing $-14,112)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-07 00:32