5 of 10 contracts (500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $456.00 | CC-SS: $463.64 | IV: LOW | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $128,000 | (ND $136.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $7,500/mo | 45% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $598/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-59,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $410C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $3.30 | $1,650 | 2026-07-02 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $387 | 75% | $3,844 | $345 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $400 | 17 Jul | 8d | 5.8% | 94% | 11% | $170 | $638 | -$3,206 | $31,649 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $400 5.8% OTM over spot $378.15 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.37 mid) = $170 credit for the 8d cycle → $638/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $400) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $400.37) 95% EV / mo +$356 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.0 mo [3.4-6.7] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 23% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,365 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $406 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.17/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $3.94–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 259 simulated challenges: the $400 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $403 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $400 is $64 below CC-SS $463.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.34 collected) or spot ≥ $400.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $400)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $397.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,627 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $400): -$31,649 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,896 (+$27,979 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,561 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,335, the opportunity cost of earning $638/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $419.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,755, position total $-40,544 (+$19,331 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $396 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.7% | 91% | 18% | $280 | $1,050 | -$2,794 | $33,539 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $396 4.7% OTM over spot $378.15 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.63 mid) = $280 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $396) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $396.63) 92% EV / mo +$496 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.8-7.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.2 mo) · 29% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,181 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $402 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.96/sh now → $4.92 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $396 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $399 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $396 is $68 below CC-SS $463.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $396.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $396)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $397.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,627 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $396): -$33,539 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,786 (+$26,089 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,561 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,225, the opportunity cost of earning $1,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $419.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,645, position total $-42,434 (+$17,441 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $390 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.1% | 82% | 37% | $680 | $2,550 | -$1,294 | $36,139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $390 3.1% OTM over spot $378.15 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.44 mid) = $680 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $390) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $391.44) 85% EV / mo +$961 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.8 mo [3.3-6.5] median · 26% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 20% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,071 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,673 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $398 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.66/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.73–$7.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 904 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $393 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $390 is $74 below CC-SS $463.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $391.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $390)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $397.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,627 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $390): -$36,139 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,386 (+$23,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,561 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,825, the opportunity cost of earning $2,550/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $419.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,245, position total $-45,034 (+$14,841 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $387 | 17 Jul | 8d | 2.3% | 75% | 41% | $1,025 | $3,844 | — | $37,294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $387 2.3% OTM over spot $378.15 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.18 mid) = $1,025 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,844/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $387) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $389.18) 80% EV / mo +$1,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 4.7 mo [3.6-6.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (4.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 38% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 27% without) · ~11.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,314 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,275 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $397 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $5.03–$7.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,217 simulated challenges: the $387 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $390 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $387 is $77 below CC-SS $463.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $389.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $387)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $397.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,627 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $387): -$37,294 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,541 (+$22,334 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,561 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,980, the opportunity cost of earning $3,844/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $419.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$15,400, position total $-46,189 (+$13,686 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $381 | 17 Jul | 8d | 0.8% | 59% | 83% | $2,150 | $8,062 | +$4,219 | $39,169 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $381 0.8% OTM over spot $378.15 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.40 mid) = $2,150 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,062/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $381) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $385.40) 71% EV / mo +$1,835 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 5.1 mo [3.3-7.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (5.4 mo) · 37% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 26% without) · ~27.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $18,891 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$45 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $401 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.21/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $5.83–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,019 simulated challenges: the $381 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $384 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $381 is $83 below CC-SS $463.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $385.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $381)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $397.21 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.40 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $463.64, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-59,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$59,627 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $381): -$39,169 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,416 (+$20,459 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,561 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,855, the opportunity cost of earning $8,062/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $419.85 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,275, position total $-48,064 (+$11,811 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 93 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.395 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$59,627 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,561
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $386 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.56 | 5/5 | $3,900 | $3,302 | 76% | 81% | +$1,161 | -$38,039 | 55.9% | $-38,286 (vs do-nothing $-33,725) |
| $387 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 5/5 | $3,844 | $3,245 | 75% | 80% | +$1,228 | -$37,294 | 54.8% | $-37,541 (vs do-nothing $-32,980) |
| $383 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 5/5 | $4,688 | $4,089 | 74% | 79% | +$1,483 | -$39,694 | 58.4% | $-39,941 (vs do-nothing $-35,380) |
| $385 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 5/5 | $4,625 | $4,027 | 73% | 79% | +$1,332 | -$38,394 | 56.5% | $-38,641 (vs do-nothing $-34,080) |
| $386 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 5/5 | $4,425 | $3,827 | 73% | 78% | +$1,363 | -$37,639 | 55.4% | $-37,886 (vs do-nothing $-33,325) |
| $384 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 4/5 | $4,300 | $3,704 | 70% | 77% | +$1,152 | -$30,995 | 45.6% | $-32,105 (vs do-nothing $-27,544) |
| $385 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.69 | 4/5 | $4,035 | $3,439 | 70% | 77% | +$1,182 | -$30,379 | 44.7% | $-31,489 (vs do-nothing $-26,928) |
| $382 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 4/5 | $4,560 | $3,964 | 70% | 77% | +$1,221 | -$32,047 | 47.1% | $-33,157 (vs do-nothing $-28,596) |
| $386 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $3,808 | $3,209 | 69% | 76% | +$993 | -$37,169 | 54.7% | $-37,416 (vs do-nothing $-32,855) |
| $385 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $4,159 | $3,561 | 68% | 75% | +$831 | -$37,794 | 55.6% | $-38,041 (vs do-nothing $-33,480) |
| $386 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $3,900 | $3,302 | 68% | 76% | +$1,015 | -$36,869 | 54.2% | $-37,116 (vs do-nothing $-32,555) |
| $384 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $4,500 | $3,904 | 68% | 75% | +$1,193 | -$30,655 | 45.1% | $-31,765 (vs do-nothing $-27,204) |
| $383 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 4/5 | $5,000 | $4,404 | 67% | 75% | +$1,263 | -$31,255 | 46.0% | $-32,365 (vs do-nothing $-27,804) |
Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 80.
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $385 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 5/5 | $4,269 | $3,671 | 67% | 75% | +$1,105 | -$37,469 | 55.1% | $-37,716 (vs do-nothing $-33,155) |
| $385 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 5/5 | $4,300 | $3,702 | 66% | 74% | +$1,095 | -$37,169 | 54.7% | $-37,416 (vs do-nothing $-32,855) |
| $384 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $4,636 | $4,038 | 66% | 74% | +$892 | -$38,119 | 56.1% | $-38,366 (vs do-nothing $-33,805) |
| $384 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 5/5 | $4,558 | $3,959 | 65% | 74% | +$1,012 | -$37,844 | 55.7% | $-38,091 (vs do-nothing $-33,530) |
| $381 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $1.89 | 3/5 | $4,252 | $3,659 | 65% | 74% | +$1,036 | -$24,224 | 35.6% | $-26,197 (vs do-nothing $-21,636) |
| $383 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 3/5 | $3,825 | $3,232 | 65% | 74% | +$966 | -$23,171 | 34.1% | $-25,144 (vs do-nothing $-20,583) |
| $382 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 3/5 | $4,350 | $3,757 | 64% | 73% | +$1,045 | -$23,621 | 34.7% | $-25,594 (vs do-nothing $-21,033) |
| $384 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $3,760 | $3,164 | 64% | 73% | +$919 | -$29,975 | 44.1% | $-31,085 (vs do-nothing $-26,524) |
| $383 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $4,145 | $3,550 | 63% | 73% | +$786 | -$30,735 | 45.2% | $-31,845 (vs do-nothing $-27,284) |
| $383 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/5 | $4,015 | $3,420 | 63% | 73% | +$847 | -$30,515 | 44.9% | $-31,625 (vs do-nothing $-27,064) |
| $382 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 3/5 | $4,275 | $3,682 | 62% | 72% | +$998 | -$23,351 | 34.3% | $-25,324 (vs do-nothing $-20,763) |
| $383 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 4/5 | $4,080 | $3,484 | 62% | 72% | +$941 | -$30,215 | 44.4% | $-31,325 (vs do-nothing $-26,764) |
| $382 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 4/5 | $4,418 | $3,822 | 61% | 72% | +$665 | -$31,035 | 45.6% | $-32,145 (vs do-nothing $-27,584) |
| $381 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $4,950 | $4,357 | 61% | 72% | +$1,079 | -$23,801 | 35.0% | $-25,774 (vs do-nothing $-21,213) |
| $382 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $4,292 | $3,697 | 60% | 71% | +$764 | -$30,795 | 45.3% | $-31,905 (vs do-nothing $-27,344) |
| $380 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 3/5 | $5,220 | $4,627 | 60% | 71% | +$1,151 | -$24,395 | 35.9% | $-26,368 (vs do-nothing $-21,807) |
| $382 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 4/5 | $4,440 | $3,844 | 59% | 71% | +$981 | -$30,435 | 44.8% | $-31,545 (vs do-nothing $-26,984) |
| $381 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 3/5 | $4,838 | $4,244 | 59% | 71% | +$1,101 | -$23,501 | 34.6% | $-25,474 (vs do-nothing $-20,913) |
| $381 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 4/5 | $4,909 | $4,313 | 58% | 70% | +$729 | -$31,255 | 46.0% | $-32,365 (vs do-nothing $-27,804) |
| $381 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 4/5 | $4,708 | $4,112 | 58% | 70% | +$792 | -$31,015 | 45.6% | $-32,125 (vs do-nothing $-27,564) |
| $381 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 4/5 | $4,840 | $4,244 | 57% | 70% | +$1,039 | -$30,635 | 45.1% | $-31,745 (vs do-nothing $-27,184) |
| $380 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 2/5 | $3,800 | $3,210 | 57% | 70% | +$799 | -$15,967 | 23.5% | $-18,803 (vs do-nothing $-14,242) |
| $380 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 3/5 | $5,344 | $4,751 | 56% | 69% | +$1,107 | -$23,666 | 34.8% | $-25,639 (vs do-nothing $-21,078) |
| $380 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 3/5 | $4,255 | $3,662 | 56% | 69% | +$775 | -$23,531 | 34.6% | $-25,504 (vs do-nothing $-20,943) |
| $380 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $4,085 | $3,492 | 55% | 69% | +$835 | -$23,321 | 34.3% | $-25,294 (vs do-nothing $-20,733) |
| $380 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $3,930 | $3,337 | 55% | 69% | +$805 | -$23,126 | 34.0% | $-25,099 (vs do-nothing $-20,538) |
| $379 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 2/5 | $4,185 | $3,595 | 55% | 69% | +$807 | -$16,369 | 24.1% | $-19,205 (vs do-nothing $-14,644) |
| $379 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 2/5 | $4,300 | $3,710 | 54% | 68% | +$835 | -$16,067 | 23.6% | $-18,903 (vs do-nothing $-14,342) |
| $379 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 2/5 | $3,975 | $3,385 | 53% | 68% | +$790 | -$15,867 | 23.3% | $-18,703 (vs do-nothing $-14,142) |
| $379 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $4,582 | $3,989 | 53% | 68% | +$733 | -$23,711 | 34.9% | $-25,684 (vs do-nothing $-21,123) |
| $379 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 3/5 | $4,223 | $3,630 | 53% | 68% | +$640 | -$23,561 | 34.6% | $-25,534 (vs do-nothing $-20,973) |
| $379 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 3/5 | $4,230 | $3,637 | 53% | 68% | +$815 | -$23,276 | 34.2% | $-25,249 (vs do-nothing $-20,688) |
| $378 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $4,560 | $3,967 | 51% | 67% | +$838 | -$23,411 | 34.4% | $-25,384 (vs do-nothing $-20,823) |
| $378 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 3/5 | $4,604 | $4,011 | 51% | 67% | +$666 | -$23,696 | 34.8% | $-25,669 (vs do-nothing $-21,108) |
| $378 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $4,909 | $4,316 | 50% | 67% | +$666 | -$23,891 | 35.1% | $-25,864 (vs do-nothing $-21,303) |
| $378 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 2/5 | $4,388 | $3,797 | 50% | 67% | +$815 | -$15,957 | 23.5% | $-18,793 (vs do-nothing $-14,232) |
| $378 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 2/5 | $4,800 | $4,210 | 50% | 67% | +$827 | -$16,167 | 23.8% | $-19,003 (vs do-nothing $-14,442) |
| $378 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 2/5 | $4,950 | $4,360 | 50% | 67% | +$809 | -$16,467 | 24.2% | $-19,303 (vs do-nothing $-14,742) |
| $377 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 3/5 | $4,920 | $4,327 | 48% | 66% | +$874 | -$23,531 | 34.6% | $-25,504 (vs do-nothing $-20,943) |
| $377 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 3/5 | $4,985 | $4,392 | 48% | 66% | +$671 | -$23,831 | 35.0% | $-25,804 (vs do-nothing $-21,243) |
| $377 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $5,400 | $4,807 | 48% | 66% | +$737 | -$24,011 | 35.3% | $-25,984 (vs do-nothing $-21,423) |
| $377 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 2/5 | $4,800 | $4,210 | 47% | 66% | +$813 | -$16,047 | 23.6% | $-18,883 (vs do-nothing $-14,322) |
| $377 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 2/5 | $5,400 | $4,810 | 47% | 65% | +$877 | -$16,247 | 23.9% | $-19,083 (vs do-nothing $-14,522) |
| $376 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 3/5 | $5,250 | $4,657 | 46% | 65% | +$864 | -$23,666 | 34.8% | $-25,639 (vs do-nothing $-21,078) |
| $376 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 3/5 | $5,608 | $5,015 | 46% | 65% | +$897 | -$23,861 | 35.1% | $-25,834 (vs do-nothing $-21,273) |
| $376 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/5 | $3,927 | $3,337 | 45% | 65% | +$521 | -$16,087 | 23.7% | $-18,923 (vs do-nothing $-14,362) |
| $377 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 2/5 | $5,850 | $5,260 | 45% | 65% | +$851 | -$16,547 | 24.3% | $-19,383 (vs do-nothing $-14,822) |
| $376 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $5,250 | $4,660 | 45% | 65% | +$823 | -$16,127 | 23.7% | $-18,963 (vs do-nothing $-14,402) |
| $375 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 2/5 | $3,760 | $3,170 | 44% | 65% | +$599 | -$15,847 | 23.3% | $-18,683 (vs do-nothing $-14,122) |
| $375 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 2/5 | $4,038 | $3,448 | 43% | 64% | +$620 | -$15,977 | 23.5% | $-18,813 (vs do-nothing $-14,252) |
| $376 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 2/5 | $6,000 | $5,410 | 43% | 64% | +$884 | -$16,327 | 24.0% | $-19,163 (vs do-nothing $-14,602) |
| $375 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 2/5 | $4,391 | $3,801 | 42% | 64% | +$667 | -$16,117 | 23.7% | $-18,953 (vs do-nothing $-14,392) |
| $374 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 2/5 | $4,000 | $3,410 | 42% | 64% | +$591 | -$15,927 | 23.4% | $-18,763 (vs do-nothing $-14,202) |
| $375 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 2/5 | $5,738 | $5,147 | 42% | 64% | +$845 | -$16,197 | 23.8% | $-19,033 (vs do-nothing $-14,472) |
| $374 | 13d | 22 Jul 2026 | $9.35 | 2/5 | $4,315 | $3,725 | 41% | 63% | +$606 | -$16,057 | 23.6% | $-18,893 (vs do-nothing $-14,332) |
| $375 | 6d | 15 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $6,650 | $6,060 | 40% | 63% | +$902 | -$16,397 | 24.1% | $-19,233 (vs do-nothing $-14,672) |
| $376 | 4d | 13 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 2/5 | $6,825 | $6,235 | 40% | 63% | +$879 | -$16,617 | 24.4% | $-19,453 (vs do-nothing $-14,892) |
| $374 | 11d | 20 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $4,718 | $4,128 | 40% | 63% | +$643 | -$16,197 | 23.8% | $-19,033 (vs do-nothing $-14,472) |
| $373 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 2/5 | $4,180 | $3,590 | 40% | 63% | +$514 | -$16,037 | 23.6% | $-18,873 (vs do-nothing $-14,312) |
| $374 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $6,112 | $5,522 | 39% | 63% | +$731 | -$16,297 | 24.0% | $-19,133 (vs do-nothing $-14,572) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.